Manhattan Institute
2 polls analyzed · population: 1 LV, 1 RV
Election house effect
Even
95%: R+3.3 to D+3.4 · 2 polls, 2 races
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency
Fewer than 5 polls, so not enough to judge how consistent its polls are.
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
All polls
| Ended | Race | Sample | Result | vs consensus | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | 2026 California Governor | 1,000 LV | D+18.0 | D+1.6 | release |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 2026 Generic congressional ballot | 500 RV | D+3.0 | R+0.3 | release |