2026 California Governor
Margin = Xavier Becerra − Steve Hilton. 72 polls from 30 pollsters. Consensus as of Oct 7, 2026: D+16.5(95% band D+12.4 to D+20.8).
Polls and consensus
Individual poll (click to open source)Consensus, house effects removed95% band
How each pollster compares in this race
Average distance of each pollster's polls from the consensus of all other polls at the same time. The overall house effect is that pollster's lean across every race we track.
| Pollster | Polls here | Avg. vs consensus here | Overall house effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights | 1 | R+8.9 | R+0.8 |
| CivicLens Research | 1 | R+7.0 | R+0.7 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 1 | R+6.3 | R+3.7 |
| FM3 Research | 1 | R+5.8 | D+0.4 |
| Impact Research | 2 | R+3.0 | D+0.4 |
| Independent Voter Project | 2 | R+3.0 | R+1.1 |
| Lake Research Partners | 1 | R+2.9 | Even |
| Global Strategy Group | 3 | R+2.4 | D+0.7 |
| SurveyUSA | 4 | R+2.4 | R+1.1 |
| David Binder Research | 4 | R+1.5 | D+0.3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2 | R+1.2 | D+0.4 |
| RBI Strategies & Research | 1 | R+0.8 | D+1.0 |
| Emerson College | 9 | D+0.2 | R+0.1 |
| EMC Research | 3 | D+0.6 | D+2.0 |
| USC / CSU Long Beach / Cal Poly Pomona | 1 | D+0.8 | D+0.4 |
| UC Berkeley Citrin Center/TrueDot | 3 | D+1.1 | D+1.0 |
| Tulchin Research | 1 | D+1.2 | D+1.5 |
| Evitarus | 5 | D+1.3 | D+1.3 |
| CBS News/YouGov | 1 | D+1.5 | D+0.4 |
| Bold Decision | 1 | D+1.5 | D+0.6 |
| Manhattan Institute | 1 | D+1.6 | Even |
| Mellman Group | 1 | D+2.0 | D+1.6 |
| Kreate Strategies | 5 | D+2.8 | R+0.9 |
| J Wallin Opinion Research | 1 | D+3.2 | D+1.4 |
| Gudelunas Strategies | 2 | D+3.5 | D+1.6 |
| Tavern Research | 2 | D+4.8 | D+2.7 |
| CEPP | 1 | D+5.7 | D+1.4 |
| PPIC | 6 | D+6.4 | D+2.9 |
| UC Berkeley IGS | 5 | D+6.8 | D+5.8 |
| ActiVote | 1 | D+9.5 | D+0.4 |
All polls
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Result | House-effect adjusted | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 – Oct 16, 2026 | ActiVote | 400 LV | D+26.0 | D+25.7 | release via wikipedia |
| Sep 24, 2026 – Oct 1, 2026 | Manhattan Institute R | 1,000 LV | D+18.0 | D+18.8 | release via wikipedia |
| Sep 23, 2026 – Sep 28, 2026 | Independent Voter Project | 2,906 LV | D+10.0 | D+11.2 | release via wikipedia |
| Sep 15, 2026 – Sep 20, 2026 | SurveyUSA | 742 LV | D+22.0 | D+23.3 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Sep 15, 2026 – Sep 20, 2026 | UC Berkeley IGS | 4,512 LV | D+25.0 | D+19.3 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Sep 11, 2026 – Sep 16, 2026 | UC Berkeley Citrin Center/TrueDot | 1,983 LV | D+18.0 | D+17.1 | release via votehub |
| Sep 4, 2026 – Sep 10, 2026 | PPIC | 1,103 LV | D+22.0 | D+19.3 | release via wikipedia |
| Aug 3, 2026 – Aug 9, 2026 | UC Berkeley IGS | 2,310 LV | D+18.0 | D+12.3 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Jun 29, 2026 – Jul 6, 2026 | PPIC | 1,003 LV | D+25.0 | D+22.3 | release via wikipedia |
| Jun 13, 2026 – Jun 17, 2026 | Kreate Strategies | 900 LV | D+25.0 | D+25.6 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| May 28, 2026 – May 31, 2026 | SurveyUSA | 1,124 LV | R+3.0 | R+1.7 | release via wikipedia |
| May 27, 2026 – May 28, 2026 | Public Policy Polling D | 686 LV | R+2.0 | R+2.4 | release via wikipedia |
| May 26, 2026 – May 28, 2026 | McLaughlin & Associates R | 800 LV | R+6.0 | R+1.3 | release via wikipedia |
| May 27, 2026 – May 28, 2026 | Emerson College | 1,000 LV | D+5.0 | D+5.2 | release via wikipedia |
| May 26, 2026 – May 27, 2026 | David Binder Research D | — | R+1.0 | R+1.2 | release via wikipedia |
| May 23, 2026 – May 27, 2026 | Kreate Strategies | 900 LV | D+1.0 | D+1.6 | release via wikipedia |
| May 23, 2026 – May 26, 2026 | CEPP | 735 LV | D+6.0 | D+4.7 | release via wikipedia |
| May 19, 2026 – May 24, 2026 | UC Berkeley IGS | 5,472 LV | D+4.0 | R+1.7 | release via wikipedia |
| May 18, 2026 – May 21, 2026 | Global Strategy Group D | 800 LV | R+3.0 | R+3.6 | release via wikipedia |
| May 18, 2026 – May 21, 2026 | Echelon Insights R | 800 LV | R+10.0 | R+8.0 | release via wikipedia |
| May 14, 2026 – May 18, 2026 | PPIC | 986 LV | D+3.0 | D+0.3 | release via wikipedia |
| May 14, 2026 – May 16, 2026 | Evitarus D | 1,200 LV | R+1.0 | R+2.2 | release via wikipedia |
| May 5, 2026 – May 11, 2026 | David Binder Research D | — | R+1.0 | R+1.2 | release via wikipedia |
| May 9, 2026 – May 10, 2026 | Emerson College | 1,000 LV | D+2.0 | D+2.2 | release via wikipedia |
| May 5, 2026 – May 9, 2026 | Kreate Strategies | 900 LV | R+2.0 | R+1.4 | release via wikipedia |
| May 3, 2026 – May 6, 2026 | Mellman Group D | 600 LV | Even | R+1.5 | release via wikipedia |
| Apr 28, 2026 – May 3, 2026 | Impact Research D | 900 LV | Even | R+0.6 | release via wikipedia |
| Apr 30, 2026 – May 2, 2026 | Evitarus D | 1,200 LV | Even | R+1.2 | release via wikipedia |
| Apr 28, 2026 – May 1, 2026 | SurveyUSA | 991 LV | R+10.0 | R+8.7 | release via wikipedia |
| Apr 23, 2026 – Apr 27, 2026 | Gudelunas Strategies | 800 LV | D+1.0 | R+0.5 | release via wikipedia |
| Apr 23, 2026 – Apr 27, 2026 | CBS News/YouGov | 1,479 LV | R+3.0 | R+3.3 | release via wikipedia |
| Apr 21, 2026 – Apr 26, 2026 | EMC Research D | 1,000 LV | D+1.0 | R+0.9 | release via wikipedia |
| Apr 14, 2026 – Apr 18, 2026 | Gudelunas Strategies | 800 LV | R+5.0 | R+6.5 | release via wikipedia |
| Apr 12, 2026 – Apr 18, 2026 | Kreate Strategies | 900 LV | R+8.0 | R+7.4 | release via wikipedia |
| Apr 15, 2026 – Apr 17, 2026 | Evitarus D | 1,200 LV | R+3.0 | R+4.2 | release via wikipedia |
| Apr 14, 2026 – Apr 15, 2026 | Emerson College | 1,000 LV | R+7.0 | R+6.8 | release via wikipedia |
| Apr 8, 2026 – Apr 12, 2026 | Impact Research D | 900 LV | R+18.0 | R+18.6 | release via wikipedia |
| Apr 8, 2026 – Apr 10, 2026 | SurveyUSA | 788 LV | R+14.0 | R+12.7 | release via wikipedia |
| Apr 1, 2026 – Apr 6, 2026 | David Binder Research D | 800 LV | R+18.0 | R+18.2 | release via wikipedia |
| Mar 31, 2026 – Apr 5, 2026 | Evitarus D | 1,200 LV | R+10.0 | R+11.2 | release via wikipedia |
| Mar 26, 2026 – Apr 3, 2026 | PPIC | 1,008 LV | R+12.0 | R+14.8 | release via wikipedia |
| Mar 23, 2026 – Mar 29, 2026 | Kreate Strategies | 700 LV | R+17.0 | R+16.4 | release via wikipedia |
| Mar 12, 2026 – Mar 17, 2026 | Evitarus D | 2,000 LV | R+13.0 | R+14.2 | release via wikipedia |
| Mar 7, 2026 – Mar 9, 2026 | Emerson College | 1,000 LV | R+10.0 | R+9.8 | release via wikipedia |
| Feb 25, 2026 – Mar 3, 2026 | UC Berkeley Citrin Center/TrueDot | 1,004 LV | R+14.0 | R+14.9 | release via wikipedia |
| Feb 27, 2026 – Mar 2, 2026 | Global Strategy Group D | 1,340 LV | R+15.0 | R+15.6 | release via wikipedia |
| Feb 13, 2026 – Feb 20, 2026 | Independent Voter Project | 868 LV | R+12.0 | R+10.8 | release via wikipedia |
| Feb 13, 2026 – Feb 14, 2026 | Emerson College | 1,000 LV | R+13.0 | R+12.8 | release via wikipedia |
| Feb 3, 2026 – Feb 11, 2026 | PPIC | 1,049 LV | R+9.0 | R+11.8 | release via wikipedia |
| Feb 2, 2026 – Feb 5, 2026 | Tavern Research D | 1,097 LV | R+6.0 | R+8.9 | release via wikipedia |
| Jan 29, 2026 – Feb 4, 2026 | EMC Research D | 1,400 V | R+11.0 | R+12.5 | release via wikipedia |
| Jan 29, 2026 – Feb 3, 2026 | Global Strategy Group D | — LV | R+14.0 | R+14.6 | release via wikipedia |
| Jan 29, 2026 – Feb 1, 2026 | J Wallin Opinion Research | 1,000 RV | R+8.0 | R+9.4 | release via wikipedia |
| Jan 25, 2026 – Jan 29, 2026 | RBI Strategies & Research D | — LV | R+12.0 | R+12.9 | release via wikipedia |
| Jan 22, 2026 – Jan 28, 2026 | Tulchin Research D | 1,000 LV | R+10.0 | R+11.4 | release via wikipedia |
| Jan 20, 2026 – Jan 21, 2026 | Public Policy Polling D | 1,001 V | R+11.0 | R+11.0 | release via wikipedia |
| Jan 17, 2026 – Jan 20, 2026 | David Binder Research D | 800 LV | R+9.0 | R+9.2 | release via wikipedia |
| Dec 14, 2025 – Dec 16, 2025 | CivicLens Research | 400 LV | R+17.0 | R+16.2 | release via wikipedia |
| Nov 30, 2025 – Dec 7, 2025 | FM3 Research D | 632 LV | R+15.0 | R+15.3 | release via wikipedia |
| Dec 1, 2025 – Dec 2, 2025 | Emerson College | 1,000 LV | R+8.0 | R+7.8 | release via wikipedia |
| Nov 17, 2025 – Nov 20, 2025 | Lake Research Partners D | 600 LV | R+11.0 | R+10.9 | release via wikipedia |
| Nov 13, 2025 – Nov 19, 2025 | PPIC | 1,086 LV | Even | R+2.8 | release via wikipedia |
| Oct 27, 2025 – Oct 30, 2025 | Tavern Research D | 1,001 LV | R+3.0 | R+5.9 | release via wikipedia |
| Oct 20, 2025 – Oct 27, 2025 | UC Berkeley IGS | 8,141 RV | Even | R+5.8 | release via wikipedia |
| Oct 22, 2025 – Oct 26, 2025 | EMC Research D | 1,000 LV | R+11.0 | R+12.9 | release via wikipedia |
| Oct 20, 2025 – Oct 21, 2025 | Emerson College | 900 LV | R+11.0 | R+10.8 | release via wikipedia |
| Oct 16, 2025 – Oct 21, 2025 | Bold Decision | 509 LV | R+5.0 | R+5.5 | release via wikipedia |
| Sep 15, 2025 – Sep 16, 2025 | Emerson College | 1,000 RV | R+5.0 | R+4.9 | release via wikipedia |
| Aug 11, 2025 – Aug 17, 2025 | UC Berkeley IGS | 4,950 RV | D+3.0 | R+2.8 | release via wikipedia |
| Jul 28, 2025 – Aug 12, 2025 | UC Berkeley Citrin Center/TrueDot | 875 RV | R+1.0 | R+2.0 | release via wikipedia |
| Aug 4, 2025 – Aug 5, 2025 | Emerson College | 1,000 RV | R+9.0 | R+8.9 | release via wikipedia |
| Sep 12, 2024 – Sep 25, 2024 | USC / CSU Long Beach / Cal Poly Pomona | 1,685 LV | R+1.0 | R+1.3 | release via wikipedia |