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Public Policy Polling

28 polls analyzed · population: 1 A, 10 LV, 2 V, 15 RV · declared affiliation: D

Election house effect
D+0.4
95%: R+1.3 to D+2.2 · 26 polls, 19 races
Approval house effect
−0.6 net approval
95%: −7.0 net approval to +5.7 net approval · 2 polls, 1 race

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency

Its polls cluster more tightly around its own lean than sample sizes allow (dispersion 0.37, p < 0.001). That can mean herding, or heavy weighting and modeling.

Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall

Trump job approval: consistency

Fewer than 5 polls, so not enough to judge how consistent its polls are.

Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall

Head-to-head with other pollsters

Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)

Show as table
Compared withPairsAvg. gap95% intervalModel estimate
Morning Consult54.83.2 to 6.02.5
YouGov50.4-5.4 to 3.80.2
Cygnal44.03.0 to 5.01.2

Trump job approval

Show as table
Compared withPairsAvg. gap95% intervalModel estimate
YouGov53.8-1.6 to 9.20.8
Morning Consult4-6.0-10.5 to -1.5-4.4

All polls

EndedRaceSampleResultvs consensusSource
Jan 30, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)652 RV−17.0 net approval−3.8release
Jan 14, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)597 RV−8.0 net approval+4.0release
Oct 15, 20262026 Alaska Senate578 RVD+1.0R+4.7release
Oct 14, 20262026 Nebraska Governor571 RVR+2.0R+0.2release
Oct 1, 20262026 Illinois Senate569 LVD+13.0R+0.5release
Oct 1, 20262026 Illinois Governor569 LVD+20.0D+0.6release
Sep 2, 20262026 Nebraska Governor559 RVR+1.0D+1.1release
Aug 8, 20262026 Kansas Senate569 LVR+1.0R+0.1release
Jul 17, 20262026 South Carolina Governor577 LVR+8.0D+0.8release
Jul 16, 20262026 Nevada Governor558 LVEvenD+3.4release
Jul 11, 20262026 North Carolina Senate759 LVD+4.0R+4.8release
Jul 7, 20262026 Maine Senate785 LVD+5.0D+2.6release
Jun 4, 20262026 Iowa Senate557 RVEvenD+0.2release
May 28, 20262026 California Governor686 LVR+2.0R+2.3release
May 23, 20262026 Texas Senate643 LVD+7.0D+4.7release
May 23, 20262026 Texas Governor643 LVR+4.0D+1.6release
Apr 7, 20262026 Nebraska Governor670 RVR+5.0R+1.0release
Mar 17, 20262026 Idaho Senate639 RVR+14.0D+1.9release
Mar 14, 20262026 North Carolina Senate556 RVD+3.0R+7.2release
Mar 5, 20262026 Texas Senate576 AD+2.0D+0.5release
Jan 30, 20262026 Generic congressional ballot652 RVD+7.0D+2.0release
Jan 21, 20262026 California Governor1,001 VR+11.0R+0.1release
Jan 17, 20262026 Alaska Senate611 RVD+2.0R+0.2release
Jan 14, 20262026 Generic congressional ballot597 RVD+8.0D+3.6release
Nov 22, 20252026 South Carolina Senate704 VR+6.0R+1.2release
Oct 8, 20252025 Virginia Governor558 RVD+9.0D+0.7release
Oct 3, 20252025 New Jersey Governor703 RVD+6.0D+0.5release
Feb 20, 20252026 Ohio Governor642 RVD+1.0D+3.0release