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2026 Nevada Governor

Margin = Aaron Ford − Joe Lombardo. 12 polls from 8 pollsters. Consensus as of Oct 7, 2026: R+3.1(95% band R+8.5 to D+2.3).

Polls and consensus

Individual poll (click to open source)Consensus, house effects removed95% band

How each pollster compares in this race

Average distance of each pollster's polls from the consensus of all other polls at the same time. The overall house effect is that pollster's lean across every race we track.

PollsterPolls hereAvg. vs consensus hereOverall house effect
Emerson College2R+17.0R+0.1
Vote TXT1R+7.3R+0.3
Public Opinion Strategies1R+5.5R+2.5
The Tarrance Group1R+3.5R+1.6
Hart Research Associates1R+0.4D+1.2
Noble Predictive Insights3D+0.8R+0.6
Global Strategy Group2D+1.1D+0.7
Public Policy Polling1D+3.4D+0.4

All polls

Field datesPollsterSampleResultHouse-effect adjustedSource
Oct 8, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026Global Strategy Group D700 LVR+1.0R+1.6release via wikipedia
Sep 22, 2026 – Sep 26, 2026Noble Predictive Insights708 LVR+2.0R+1.3release via wikipedia
Sep 5, 2026 – Sep 8, 2026Emerson College680 LVR+39.6R+39.4release via votehub
Jul 25, 2026 – Jul 29, 2026The Tarrance Group R— LVR+7.0R+5.3release via wikipedia
Jul 15, 2026 – Jul 16, 2026Public Policy Polling D558 LVEvenR+0.4release via wikipedia
Jun 27, 2026 – Jun 29, 2026Public Opinion Strategies R— LVR+9.0R+5.8release via wikipedia
May 5, 2026 – May 11, 2026Global Strategy Group D700 LVR+3.0R+3.6release via wikipedia
Mar 10, 2026 – Mar 13, 2026Noble Predictive Insights845 RVR+1.0R+0.4release via votehub,wikipedia
Feb 11, 2026 – Feb 17, 2026Hart Research Associates D800 LVR+3.0R+4.1release via votehub,wikipedia
Nov 16, 2025 – Nov 18, 2025Emerson College800 RVEvenD+0.1release via votehub,wikipedia
Oct 7, 2025 – Oct 13, 2025Noble Predictive Insights766 RVR+3.0R+2.4release via votehub,wikipedia
May 15, 2023 – May 19, 2023Vote TXT412 RVR+21.0R+20.7release via wikipedia