Emerson College
87 polls analyzed · population: 31 RV, 56 LV
Election house effect
R+0.1
95%: R+1.1 to D+0.9 · 66 polls, 27 races
Approval house effect
+3.3 net approval
95%: +1.6 net approval to +5.0 net approval · 21 polls, 1 race
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency
Its polls bounce around more than sample sizes explain (dispersion 1.93, p < 0.001).
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Trump job approval: consistency
Its polls cluster more tightly around its own lean than sample sizes allow (dispersion 0.33, p < 0.001). That can mean herding, or heavy weighting and modeling.
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Head-to-head with other pollsters
Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 28 | 0.6 | -1.1 to 2.3 | -0.4 |
| Morning Consult | 19 | 3.1 | 1.5 to 4.6 | 2.0 |
| Quantus Insights | 12 | 1.4 | 0.1 to 2.8 | 1.5 |
| Verasight | 12 | -0.6 | -2.3 to 1.2 | -1.9 |
| Ipsos | 11 | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.6 | 1.8 |
| Echelon Insights | 10 | 1.9 | 0.5 to 3.2 | 0.7 |
| Big Data Poll | 7 | -0.3 | -1.4 to 1.0 | -0.4 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 7 | 0.5 | -2.7 to 3.7 | -0.9 |
| Cygnal | 7 | 1.4 | -0.7 to 3.6 | 0.6 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 6 | 3.7 | 0.8 to 6.9 | 3.6 |
| Marist Poll | 6 | -2.9 | -5.0 to -0.7 | -2.5 |
| Quinnipiac University | 5 | -5.1 | -6.8 to -3.1 | -2.0 |
| The Winston Group | 5 | -0.5 | -2.8 to 2.1 | -0.3 |
| CNN/SSRS | 5 | -0.6 | -3.9 to 3.3 | -0.9 |
| HarrisX | 5 | 8.5 | 7.8 to 9.4 | 2.5 |
| SoCal Strategies | 5 | -1.5 | -4.7 to 2.2 | 0.6 |
| Suffolk University | 5 | -6.1 | -8.7 to -3.7 | -1.3 |
| Marquette Law School Poll | 4 | 1.0 | -3.5 to 5.5 | -1.2 |
| Research Co. | 4 | 2.4 | 0.2 to 4.5 | 0.5 |
| Trafalgar Group | 4 | 2.6 | 0.5 to 4.7 | 1.4 |
| RMG Research | 4 | 7.3 | 5.8 to 9.7 | 2.8 |
| AtlasIntel | 4 | -4.1 | -10.2 to 1.8 | -3.6 |
| Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) | 4 | -1.8 | -6.3 to 2.8 | -0.7 |
| co/efficient | 4 | 3.2 | 1.0 to 5.5 | 3.5 |
| Global Strategy Group | 4 | -6.4 | -9.5 to -2.3 | -0.8 |
| Kreate Strategies | 3 | 3.0 | 1.0 to 4.0 | 0.8 |
| NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies) | 3 | 2.7 | 0.4 to 5.8 | 0.0 |
| Washington Post/George Mason University | 3 | -2.6 | -5.3 to -0.5 | -1.9 |
| A2 Insights | 3 | 2.4 | -2.9 to 6.9 | 0.2 |
| GrayHouse | 3 | 0.8 | -2.0 to 5.0 | 1.7 |
| The New York Times/Siena | 3 | 0.2 | -2.5 to 1.7 | 0.1 |
| The Bullfinch Group | 3 | 3.4 | 2.5 to 4.8 | -2.9 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 3 | 0.4 | -0.5 to 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Evitarus | 3 | 0.7 | -4.0 to 3.0 | -1.4 |
| John Zogby Strategies | 3 | -0.1 | -9.6 to 7.7 | -0.6 |
Trump job approval
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 44 | 5.4 | 4.4 to 6.5 | 4.8 |
| Morning Consult | 38 | -0.3 | -1.6 to 1.1 | -0.4 |
| Ipsos | 26 | 9.7 | 8.4 to 10.9 | 8.0 |
| RMG Research | 22 | -4.5 | -5.6 to -3.4 | -4.6 |
| Quantus Insights | 18 | -0.2 | -1.3 to 0.6 | -0.6 |
| Echelon Insights | 14 | 3.3 | 1.7 to 4.9 | 4.0 |
| Verasight | 13 | 9.0 | 7.1 to 11.0 | 7.4 |
| American Research Group | 13 | 18.1 | 16.8 to 19.1 | 16.0 |
| Global Strategy Group | 12 | 6.5 | 4.9 to 8.0 | 6.0 |
| J.L. Partners | 12 | -0.9 | -4.4 to 2.6 | -1.9 |
| TIPP Insights | 11 | 2.7 | 1.0 to 4.8 | -0.1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 10 | 10.3 | 7.9 to 12.6 | 8.7 |
| CNN/SSRS | 10 | 12.5 | 11.3 to 13.7 | 10.9 |
| John Zogby Strategies | 9 | 1.7 | -2.4 to 5.1 | 0.9 |
| ActiVote | 9 | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 1.5 |
| AP-NORC | 9 | 15.5 | 12.0 to 18.5 | 12.6 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 9 | 1.5 | -0.4 to 3.2 | 1.6 |
| The Bullfinch Group | 9 | 4.1 | 0.9 to 7.5 | 3.7 |
| Big Data Poll | 9 | -2.4 | -5.3 to 0.2 | -2.2 |
| Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) | 9 | 5.6 | 3.5 to 7.6 | 5.0 |
| Gallup | 8 | 13.1 | 11.0 to 15.5 | 10.1 |
| HarrisX | 7 | -6.1 | -9.8 to -2.9 | -3.0 |
| AtlasIntel | 6 | 8.2 | 6.3 to 10.0 | 5.3 |
| The Winston Group | 6 | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.7 | 7.7 |
| Tavern Research | 6 | 3.2 | 0.9 to 5.3 | 3.6 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 6 | -0.6 | -5.5 to 3.2 | -0.2 |
| Marist Poll | 6 | 7.3 | 5.4 to 9.3 | 7.3 |
| NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies) | 5 | 5.4 | 2.4 to 7.7 | 2.2 |
| Marquette Law School Poll | 5 | 5.6 | 0.6 to 9.2 | 5.4 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 5 | -11.9 | -15.9 to -8.1 | -9.5 |
| Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage | 4 | -1.6 | -2.8 to 0.0 | -3.4 |
| Pew Research Center | 3 | 13.6 | 11.3 to 15.9 | 13.4 |
| Research Co. | 3 | 3.3 | 2.9 to 3.8 | 3.0 |
| Navigator Research (GSG/GBAO) | 3 | 6.5 | 4.2 to 10.0 | 5.2 |
| UMass Amherst/YouGov | 3 | 17.1 | 13.0 to 19.5 | 9.9 |
| Talker Research | 3 | -5.0 | -9.0 to 0.4 | -4.3 |
| Leger | 3 | 7.3 | 0.7 to 12.9 | 5.1 |