Big Data Poll
35 polls analyzed · population: 21 LV, 14 RV
Election house effect
D+0.3
95%: R+1.0 to D+1.7 · 21 polls, 10 races
Approval house effect
+5.5 net approval
95%: +3.9 net approval to +7.2 net approval · 14 polls, 1 race
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency
Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 1.13).
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Trump job approval: consistency
Its polls bounce around more than sample sizes explain (dispersion 1.91, p = 0.020).
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Head-to-head with other pollsters
Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 29 | 1.0 | -0.3 to 2.5 | 0.1 |
| Morning Consult | 21 | 3.4 | 2.2 to 4.6 | 2.5 |
| Quantus Insights | 14 | 2.2 | 0.6 to 4.0 | 1.9 |
| Verasight | 10 | -2.0 | -4.4 to 0.6 | -1.5 |
| Ipsos | 9 | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.3 | 2.3 |
| Emerson College | 7 | 0.3 | -1.0 to 1.4 | 0.4 |
| Marist Poll | 6 | -4.1 | -6.3 to -1.5 | -2.1 |
| Echelon Insights | 6 | 0.9 | -0.8 to 2.8 | 1.1 |
| HarrisX | 5 | 6.8 | 2.8 to 10.2 | 3.0 |
| CNN/SSRS | 5 | -0.9 | -5.7 to 4.4 | -0.5 |
| Focaldata | 5 | 2.7 | 1.0 to 4.5 | -0.1 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 5 | 2.1 | 1.3 to 2.8 | 1.2 |
| The New York Times/Siena | 5 | -3.3 | -6.0 to -0.5 | 0.5 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 4 | 1.9 | -3.3 to 7.0 | -0.4 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 4 | 3.7 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 4.0 |
| Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) | 4 | 0.5 | -1.5 to 3.0 | -0.3 |
| RMG Research | 4 | 6.7 | 4.6 to 9.3 | 3.3 |
| Cygnal | 4 | -1.0 | -2.0 to -0.2 | 1.1 |
| UMass Lowell/YouGov | 3 | 2.0 | -1.0 to 5.0 | 1.0 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 3 | 0.2 | -1.0 to 1.0 | 0.5 |
| Guidant Polling & Strategy | 3 | -1.1 | -3.0 to 0.0 | 0.4 |
| NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies) | 3 | -2.5 | -6.0 to -0.5 | 0.4 |
| Suffolk University | 3 | -3.8 | -10.1 to 0.7 | -0.8 |
Trump job approval
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 31 | 7.7 | 6.5 to 8.9 | 7.0 |
| Morning Consult | 27 | 0.6 | -0.9 to 2.1 | 1.8 |
| Ipsos | 13 | 11.7 | 8.9 to 14.4 | 10.2 |
| Quantus Insights | 12 | 1.6 | -0.2 to 3.4 | 1.6 |
| RMG Research | 12 | -1.2 | -2.8 to 0.5 | -2.4 |
| Verasight | 10 | 9.6 | 7.4 to 11.8 | 9.7 |
| Emerson College | 9 | 2.4 | -0.2 to 5.3 | 2.2 |
| J.L. Partners | 9 | 0.2 | -1.9 to 2.0 | 0.3 |
| Global Strategy Group | 8 | 8.1 | 6.0 to 9.8 | 8.3 |
| HarrisX | 8 | -4.3 | -7.0 to -1.7 | -0.8 |
| Echelon Insights | 8 | 7.4 | 5.1 to 9.2 | 6.3 |
| American Research Group | 7 | 19.4 | 17.0 to 21.6 | 18.2 |
| TIPP Insights | 7 | 1.8 | -0.2 to 3.8 | 2.2 |
| ActiVote | 6 | 5.0 | 1.4 to 8.9 | 3.7 |
| The Bullfinch Group | 6 | 8.1 | 3.3 to 12.2 | 5.9 |
| Tavern Research | 6 | 4.8 | 2.4 to 7.0 | 5.8 |
| Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) | 5 | 7.5 | 5.1 to 10.0 | 7.2 |
| Gallup | 5 | 17.9 | 14.2 to 20.2 | 12.4 |
| CNN/SSRS | 5 | 12.7 | 10.6 to 14.9 | 13.1 |
| AP-NORC | 5 | 16.7 | 12.1 to 20.1 | 14.8 |
| Quinnipiac University | 5 | 10.4 | 6.7 to 13.7 | 10.9 |
| Marquette Law School Poll | 4 | 4.7 | -1.3 to 8.2 | 7.6 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 4 | -6.1 | -12.8 to 0.6 | -7.3 |
| John Zogby Strategies | 4 | -1.8 | -5.1 to 1.6 | 3.1 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 4 | 3.0 | -1.5 to 7.0 | 3.8 |
| GBAO | 3 | 8.2 | 7.0 to 9.6 | 7.0 |
| The Winston Group | 3 | 9.3 | 4.8 to 16.1 | 9.9 |
| NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies) | 3 | 3.7 | 1.0 to 6.0 | 4.4 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 3 | -0.6 | -5.9 to 9.1 | 2.0 |
| Focaldata | 3 | 2.9 | -1.1 to 8.0 | 4.8 |
| AtlasIntel | 3 | 15.1 | 10.2 to 17.7 | 7.6 |
| Marist Poll | 3 | 9.0 | 4.0 to 12.1 | 9.5 |