Guidant Polling & Strategy
5 polls analyzed · population: 5 LV
Election house effect
R+0.1
95%: R+2.8 to D+2.5 · 5 polls, 5 races
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency
Its polls cluster more tightly around its own lean than sample sizes allow (dispersion 0.11, p = 0.020). That can mean herding, or heavy weighting and modeling.
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Head-to-head with other pollsters
Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena | 4 | -2.1 | -4.3 to 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) | 4 | 0.8 | -2.3 to 3.5 | -0.7 |
| YouGov | 4 | -0.1 | -3.3 to 3.0 | -0.3 |
| Marist Poll | 4 | -4.4 | -6.2 to -2.8 | -2.5 |
| Big Data Poll | 3 | 1.1 | 0.0 to 3.0 | -0.4 |
All polls
| Ended | Race | Sample | Result | vs consensus | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | 2026 Texas Senate | 800 LV | D+2.4 | R+0.2 | release |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 2026 Texas Governor | 800 LV | R+2.0 | D+0.6 | release |
| Sep 27, 2026 | 2026 Michigan Senate | 800 LV | D+5.0 | D+2.2 | release |
| Sep 27, 2026 | 2026 Michigan Governor | 800 LV | D+5.0 | R+1.5 | release |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2026 New Hampshire Senate | 600 LV | D+3.0 | R+1.4 | release |