← All races

2026 Michigan Senate

Margin = Abdul El-Sayed − Mike Rogers. 51 polls from 33 pollsters. Consensus as of Oct 14, 2026: D+2.3(95% band R+0.3 to D+5.0).

Polls and consensus

Individual poll (click to open source)Consensus, house effects removed95% band

How each pollster compares in this race

Average distance of each pollster's polls from the consensus of all other polls at the same time. The overall house effect is that pollster's lean across every race we track.

PollsterPolls hereAvg. vs consensus hereOverall house effect
Rosetta Stone Communications1R+9.5R+2.6
Glengariff Group5R+5.2R+1.7
Torchlight Strategies1R+3.8R+2.0
Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.)2R+3.6D+0.6
The Tyson Group2R+3.1R+1.6
co/efficient1R+2.8R+3.6
SoCal Strategies1R+2.2R+0.7
YouGov1R+1.6D+0.3
EPIC-MRA2R+1.2R+0.3
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research1R+0.9D+0.8
Trafalgar Group2R+0.8R+1.5
Quantus Insights2R+0.8R+1.6
InsiderAdvantage2R+0.6R+0.9
Rasmussen Reports1R+0.3R+0.2
Data for Progress1R+0.2D+1.9
Washington Post/George Mason University1D+0.5D+1.8
CNN/SSRS1D+0.6D+0.8
Emerson College2D+0.7R+0.1
TIPP Insights2D+0.9D+0.1
Mitchell Research & Communications5D+1.3D+0.5
Abacus Data1D+1.7D+0.8
Zenith Research1D+1.8D+1.5
Marist Poll2D+2.0D+2.4
Big Data Poll1D+2.2D+0.3
Guidant Polling & Strategy1D+2.2R+0.1
Cygnal/Beacon Research1D+2.3D+0.5
The New York Times/Siena1D+2.3R+0.2
GBAO2D+2.9D+1.9
Michigan State University/YouGov1D+3.1D+1.0
Tulchin Research1D+3.9D+1.5
Suffolk University1D+4.3D+1.1
Z to A Research1D+4.4D+0.6
Susquehanna Polling & Research1D+5.1D+0.3

All polls

Field datesPollsterSampleResultHouse-effect adjustedSource
Oct 15, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026Marist Poll— LVD+2.0R+0.3release via wikipedia
Oct 12, 2026 – Oct 14, 2026Rasmussen Reports R798 LVD+2.0D+2.5release via wikipedia
Oct 9, 2026 – Oct 10, 2026InsiderAdvantage R1,200 LVD+2.0D+3.2release via wikipedia
Oct 6, 2026 – Oct 8, 2026The Tyson Group R600 LVR+2.0R+0.3release via votehub,wikipedia
Oct 5, 2026 – Oct 6, 2026Quantus Insights R762 LVD+1.0D+3.3release via wikipedia
Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 4, 2026YouGov3,949 LVD+1.0D+0.8release via wikipedia
Oct 1, 2026 – Oct 1, 2026Mitchell Research & Communications682 LVD+5.0D+4.6release via votehub,wikipedia
Sep 28, 2026 – Oct 1, 2026Z to A Research D483 LVD+7.0D+6.5release via votehub,wikipedia
Sep 28, 2026 – Sep 30, 2026Trafalgar Group R1,085 LVD+2.0D+3.7release via votehub,wikipedia
Sep 24, 2026 – Sep 28, 2026Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) R1,028 LVD+1.0D+0.6release via votehub,wikipedia
Sep 24, 2026 – Sep 27, 2026The Tyson Group R600 LVD+1.0D+2.7release via votehub,wikipedia
Sep 24, 2026 – Sep 27, 2026Marist Poll1,235 RVD+7.0D+4.6release via wikipedia
Sep 20, 2026 – Sep 27, 2026Guidant Polling & Strategy800 LVD+5.0D+4.7release via votehub,wikipedia
Sep 22, 2026 – Sep 24, 2026Big Data Poll R678 LVD+5.0D+5.8release via wikipedia
Sep 21, 2026 – Sep 23, 2026co/efficient R843 LVEvenD+3.7release via votehub,wikipedia
Sep 19, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026GBAO D800 LVD+4.0D+1.9release via wikipedia
Sep 15, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026The New York Times/Siena605 LVD+5.0D+5.3release via votehub,wikipedia
Sep 18, 2026 – Sep 21, 2026Cygnal/Beacon Research D600 LVD+5.0D+3.4release via votehub,wikipedia
Sep 16, 2026 – Sep 20, 2026Suffolk University500 LVD+7.0D+6.0release via votehub,wikipedia
Sep 15, 2026 – Sep 19, 2026Torchlight Strategies R643 LVR+1.0D+1.1release via wikipedia
Sep 16, 2026 – Sep 17, 2026InsiderAdvantage R1,200 LVD+2.0D+3.2release via wikipedia
Sep 12, 2026 – Sep 14, 2026Emerson College1,000 LVD+2.5D+2.7release via votehub,wikipedia
Sep 10, 2026 – Sep 14, 2026Washington Post/George Mason University803 LVD+3.0D+1.3release via votehub,wikipedia
Sep 7, 2026 – Sep 9, 2026Trafalgar Group R1,079 LVD+1.5D+3.2release via votehub,wikipedia
Aug 31, 2026 – Sep 6, 2026CNN/SSRS843 LVD+3.0D+2.3release via wikipedia
Aug 31, 2026 – Sep 3, 2026Glengariff Group600 LVR+2.0R+0.2release via wikipedia
Aug 26, 2026 – Aug 28, 2026Abacus Data332 LVD+4.0D+3.3release via wikipedia
Aug 22, 2026 – Aug 28, 2026EPIC-MRA600 LVD+4.0D+4.4release via votehub,wikipedia
Aug 10, 2026 – Aug 20, 2026Michigan State University/YouGov779 LVD+5.0D+4.1release via votehub,wikipedia
Aug 11, 2026 – Aug 17, 2026Susquehanna Polling & Research R800 RVD+7.0D+6.7release via votehub,wikipedia
Aug 9, 2026 – Aug 11, 2026Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research D877 LVD+1.0D+0.1release via votehub,wikipedia
Aug 6, 2026 – Aug 10, 2026TIPP Insights R1,528 RVD+3.0D+3.1release via votehub,wikipedia
Aug 6, 2026 – Aug 10, 2026GBAO D800 LVD+6.0D+3.9release via votehub,wikipedia
Aug 6, 2026 – Aug 10, 2026Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) R1,006 RVR+4.0R+4.5release via votehub,wikipedia
Jul 24, 2026 – Jul 31, 2026EPIC-MRA600 LVR+3.0R+2.6release via votehub,wikipedia
Jul 28, 2026 – Jul 30, 2026SoCal Strategies R640 LVR+1.0Evenrelease via votehub,wikipedia
Jul 28, 2026 – Jul 29, 2026Mitchell Research & Communications672 LVEvenR+0.4release via votehub,wikipedia
Jul 22, 2026 – Jul 24, 2026Glengariff Group600 LVR+10.3R+8.5release via votehub,wikipedia
Jun 29, 2026 – Jun 30, 2026Quantus Insights R947 LVD+1.1D+3.4release via votehub,wikipedia
Jun 15, 2026 – Jun 22, 2026Data for Progress D709 LVD+1.0R+1.0release via wikipedia
Jun 11, 2026 – Jun 14, 2026Zenith Research D602 LVD+3.0D+1.6release via votehub,wikipedia
Jun 11, 2026 – Jun 13, 2026Mitchell Research & Communications827 LVD+5.0D+4.6release via wikipedia
Jun 2, 2026 – Jun 4, 2026Tulchin Research D500 LVD+5.0D+3.6release via votehub,wikipedia
May 20, 2026 – May 23, 2026TIPP Insights R1,163 LVD+1.0D+1.2release via votehub,wikipedia
May 1, 2026 – May 7, 2026Mitchell Research & Communications607 LVD+1.0D+0.6release via votehub,wikipedia
Apr 28, 2026 – May 1, 2026Glengariff Group600 LVR+5.0R+3.2release via votehub,wikipedia
Jan 24, 2026 – Jan 25, 2026Emerson College1,000 LVR+0.3R+0.1release via votehub,wikipedia
Jan 2, 2026 – Jan 6, 2026Glengariff Group600 LVR+6.0R+4.2release via votehub,wikipedia
Nov 18, 2025 – Nov 21, 2025Mitchell Research & Communications616 LVR+3.0R+3.4release via votehub,wikipedia
Oct 23, 2025 – Oct 25, 2025Rosetta Stone Communications R637 LVR+14.0R+11.3release via votehub,wikipedia
May 5, 2025 – May 8, 2025Glengariff Group600 RVR+6.0R+4.3release via votehub,wikipedia