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Data for Progress

9 polls analyzed · population: 9 LV · declared affiliation: D

Election house effect
D+1.9
95%: R+0.8 to D+4.8 · 8 polls, 5 races
Approval house effect
+1.7 net approval
95%: −4.7 net approval to +7.7 net approval · 1 polls, 1 race

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency

Its polls bounce around more than sample sizes explain (dispersion 17.29, p < 0.001).

Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall

Trump job approval: consistency

Fewer than 5 polls, so not enough to judge how consistent its polls are.

Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall

Head-to-head with other pollsters

Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)

Show as table
Compared withPairsAvg. gap95% intervalModel estimate
Alaska Survey Research316.93.2 to 39.42.1

Trump job approval

Show as table
Compared withPairsAvg. gap95% intervalModel estimate
Morning Consult3-1.0-2.0 to 0.0-2.1

All polls

EndedRaceSampleResultvs consensusSource
May 18, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,149 LV−13.0 net approval+4.5release
Oct 16, 20262026 Alaska Senate694 LVD+43.0D+37.4release
Oct 16, 20262026 Alaska Governor694 LVD+18.0D+4.6release
Aug 15, 20262026 Mississippi Senate1,018 LVR+6.0D+0.7release
Aug 4, 20262026 Alaska Senate605 LVD+41.0D+36.8release
Jun 22, 20262026 Michigan Senate709 LVD+1.0R+0.2release
May 18, 20262026 Generic congressional ballot1,149 LVD+8.0D+1.8release
Oct 23, 20252026 Alaska Senate823 LVD+1.0D+0.4release
Jul 27, 20252026 Alaska Senate678 LVR+1.0D+0.6release