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2026 Alaska Senate

Margin = Mary Peltola − Dan Sullivan. 26 polls from 10 pollsters. Consensus as of Oct 14, 2026: D+5.7(95% band D+0.9 to D+10.9).

Polls and consensus

Individual poll (click to open source)Consensus, house effects removed95% band

How each pollster compares in this race

Average distance of each pollster's polls from the consensus of all other polls at the same time. The overall house effect is that pollster's lean across every race we track.

PollsterPolls hereAvg. vs consensus hereOverall house effect
co/efficient1R+8.4R+3.6
Quantus Insights1R+6.2R+1.6
Public Policy Polling2R+2.4D+0.4
The New York Times/Siena2R+2.3R+0.2
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research1D+0.8D+0.8
Alaska Survey Research12D+5.9R+0.2
Data for Progress4D+18.8D+1.9
Rasmussen Reports1D+26.6R+0.2
Trafalgar Group1D+37.5R+1.5
InsiderAdvantage1D+40.3R+0.9

All polls

Field datesPollsterSampleResultHouse-effect adjustedSource
Oct 8, 2026 – Oct 16, 2026Data for Progress D694 LVD+43.0D+41.0release via wikipedia
Oct 14, 2026 – Oct 15, 2026Public Policy Polling D578 RVD+1.0D+0.5release via votehub,wikipedia
Oct 9, 2026 – Oct 10, 2026InsiderAdvantage R1,200 LVD+46.0D+47.2release via wikipedia
Oct 1, 2026 – Oct 3, 2026Alaska Survey Research1,512 LVD+42.0D+42.3release via wikipedia
Sep 24, 2026 – Oct 1, 2026The New York Times/Siena504 LVD+7.0D+7.3release via wikipedia
Sep 28, 2026 – Sep 30, 2026Quantus Insights758 LVR+0.6D+0.3release via votehub
Sep 22, 2026 – Sep 24, 2026Trafalgar Group R1,079 LVD+43.0D+44.7release via wikipedia
Sep 14, 2026 – Sep 17, 2026co/efficient R799 LVR+3.0D+0.7release via votehub,wikipedia
Sep 13, 2026 – Sep 14, 2026Rasmussen Reports R1,188 LVD+32.0D+32.5release via wikipedia
Sep 10, 2026 – Sep 12, 2026Alaska Survey Research1,352 LVD+44.0D+44.3release via wikipedia
Sep 8, 2026 – Sep 11, 2026Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research D800 LVD+6.0D+5.1release via votehub,wikipedia
Aug 20, 2026 – Aug 23, 2026Alaska Survey Research1,495 LVD+1.2D+1.5release via votehub,wikipedia
Aug 2, 2026 – Aug 5, 2026Alaska Survey Research1,371 LVD+1.6D+1.9release via votehub,wikipedia
Jul 28, 2026 – Aug 4, 2026Data for Progress D605 LVD+41.0D+39.0release via wikipedia
Jun 15, 2026 – Jun 29, 2026The New York Times/Siena593 LVR+2.0R+1.7release via votehub,wikipedia
Jun 4, 2026 – Jun 7, 2026Alaska Survey Research1,393 LVD+5.2D+5.5release via votehub,wikipedia
May 14, 2026 – May 17, 2026Alaska Survey Research1,401 LVD+4.6D+4.9release via votehub,wikipedia
Apr 16, 2026 – Apr 19, 2026Alaska Survey Research1,946 LVD+4.0D+4.3release via votehub
Mar 19, 2026 – Mar 22, 2026Alaska Survey Research1,590 LVD+5.0D+5.3release via wikipedia
Jan 16, 2026 – Jan 17, 2026Public Policy Polling D611 RVD+2.0D+1.5release via votehub,wikipedia
Jan 8, 2026 – Jan 11, 2026Alaska Survey Research1,681 LVD+1.6D+1.9release via votehub,wikipedia
Oct 17, 2025 – Oct 23, 2025Data for Progress D823 LVD+1.0R+1.0release via votehub,wikipedia
Oct 10, 2025 – Oct 15, 2025Alaska Survey Research1,708 LVD+2.0D+2.3release via wikipedia
Jul 29, 2025 – Aug 1, 2025Alaska Survey Research1,613 LVR+4.2R+3.9release via votehub,wikipedia
Jul 21, 2025 – Jul 27, 2025Data for Progress D678 LVR+1.0R+3.0release via votehub,wikipedia
Apr 21, 2023 – Apr 25, 2023Alaska Survey Research1,261 LVD+3.0D+3.3release via wikipedia