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co/efficient

38 polls analyzed · population: 38 LV · declared affiliation: R

Election house effect
R+3.6
95%: R+4.9 to R+2.3 · 35 polls, 23 races
Approval house effect
−1.5 net approval
95%: −5.5 net approval to +2.6 net approval · 3 polls, 1 race

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency

Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 1.02).

Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall

Trump job approval: consistency

Fewer than 5 polls, so not enough to judge how consistent its polls are.

Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall

Head-to-head with other pollsters

Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)

Show as table
Compared withPairsAvg. gap95% intervalModel estimate
YouGov7-4.7-7.3 to -2.1-3.9
Trafalgar Group6-0.6-1.8 to 0.8-2.1
Quantus Insights6-0.1-1.8 to 1.4-2.0
Marist Poll6-7.5-9.7 to -5.2-6.0
InsiderAdvantage5-3.8-6.2 to -2.0-2.7
National Public Affairs4-1.0-1.8 to -0.3-1.1
Rasmussen Reports4-14.8-28.5 to -5.8-3.4
Cygnal4-1.0-3.2 to 1.3-2.9
Washington Post/George Mason University4-6.0-7.0 to -4.8-5.4
Suffolk University4-6.9-12.3 to -3.3-4.8
Emerson College4-3.2-5.5 to -1.0-3.5
Echelon Insights31.3-1.0 to 4.0-2.8
Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.)3-4.3-6.0 to -1.0-4.2
Quinnipiac University3-9.7-12.0 to -7.0-5.5
RMG Research32.70.0 to 8.0-0.7

Trump job approval

Show as table
Compared withPairsAvg. gap95% intervalModel estimate
Morning Consult6-1.5-5.3 to 1.8-5.2
YouGov62.8-0.3 to 5.3-0.1
RMG Research5-9.0-11.8 to -6.4-9.4
Ipsos54.01.4 to 6.03.2
Quantus Insights4-5.3-8.8 to -1.8-5.4
Echelon Insights4-1.0-4.5 to 2.5-0.8
Gallup36.76.0 to 8.05.3

All polls

EndedRaceSampleResultvs consensusSource
May 9, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,462 LV−2.0 net approval+3.6release
Feb 17, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)2,063 LVEven−1.9release
Jan 28, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,570 LV+5.0 net approval−1.5release
Oct 19, 20262026 Iowa Senate863 LVR+3.0R+3.8release
Oct 19, 20262026 Iowa Governor863 LVD+4.0R+2.9release
Oct 6, 20262026 Ohio Senate925 LVR+1.0R+4.2release
Oct 6, 20262026 Ohio Governor925 LVR+2.0R+5.5release
Sep 30, 20262026 Nebraska Senate1,113 LVR+5.0R+5.3release
Sep 30, 20262026 Maine Senate1,240 LVR+2.0R+4.1release
Sep 30, 20262026 Nebraska Governor1,113 LVR+5.0R+3.3release
Sep 30, 20262026 Maine Governor1,240 LVD+9.0R+2.2release
Sep 25, 20262026 New York Governor1,046 LVD+7.0R+3.7release
Sep 23, 20262026 Michigan Senate843 LVEvenR+2.8release
Sep 23, 20262026 Michigan Governor843 LVD+3.0R+3.5release
Sep 17, 20262026 Alaska Senate799 LVR+3.0R+8.4release
Sep 17, 20262026 Connecticut Governor979 LVD+7.0R+9.6release
Sep 17, 20262026 Alaska Governor799 LVD+23.0D+10.6release
Sep 16, 20262026 Iowa Senate831 LVR+4.0R+5.4release
Sep 16, 20262026 Iowa Governor831 LVD+4.0R+3.4release
Sep 15, 20262026 Minnesota Senate833 LVD+1.0R+3.3release
Sep 15, 20262026 Minnesota Governor833 LVD+2.0R+7.6release
Sep 11, 20262026 New Hampshire Senate958 LVEvenR+6.5release
Sep 11, 20262026 New Hampshire Governor958 LVR+21.0R+11.7release
Sep 10, 20262026 Kansas Senate915 LVR+5.0R+5.3release
Sep 10, 20262026 Kansas Governor915 LVR+8.0R+5.0release
Jul 2, 20262026 New York Governor1,085 LVD+6.0R+5.0release
Oct 27, 20252025 New Jersey Governor995 LVD+1.0R+4.5release
Oct 17, 20252025 Virginia Governor937 LVD+5.0R+3.6release
Oct 13, 20252026 New Hampshire Senate1,034 LVD+3.0R+1.8release
Sep 23, 20252025 Virginia Governor1,024 LVD+6.0R+2.5release
Sep 12, 20252026 New Hampshire Senate904 LVD+3.0R+1.7release
Aug 26, 20252025 Virginia Governor1,025 LVD+5.0R+4.1release
Jun 16, 20252026 Generic congressional ballot1,035 LVEvenR+2.4release
Jun 10, 20252025 Virginia Governor1,127 LVD+3.0R+6.7release
May 9, 20252026 Generic congressional ballot1,462 LVD+3.0D+0.9release
Feb 17, 20252026 Generic congressional ballot2,063 LVR+2.0R+2.4release
Jan 20, 20252025 Virginia Governor867 LVEvenR+5.7release
Sep 10, 20232025 Virginia Governor834 LVD+1.0R+3.0release