Cygnal
39 polls analyzed · population: 1 V, 1 RV, 37 LV · declared affiliation: R
Election house effect
R+0.8
95%: R+2.0 to D+0.5 · 36 polls, 10 races
Approval house effect
−2.0 net approval
95%: −5.7 net approval to +1.6 net approval · 3 polls, 1 race
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency
Its polls cluster more tightly around its own lean than sample sizes allow (dispersion 0.25, p < 0.001). That can mean herding, or heavy weighting and modeling.
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Trump job approval: consistency
Fewer than 5 polls, so not enough to judge how consistent its polls are.
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Head-to-head with other pollsters
Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 31 | -0.5 | -1.3 to 0.2 | -1.0 |
| Morning Consult | 22 | 1.6 | 0.8 to 2.4 | 1.4 |
| Quantus Insights | 15 | 0.2 | -0.8 to 1.2 | 0.9 |
| RMG Research | 12 | 3.9 | 1.9 to 5.9 | 2.2 |
| Verasight | 9 | -3.3 | -5.2 to -1.4 | -2.6 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 8 | -1.4 | -2.6 to 0.0 | -1.5 |
| Echelon Insights | 8 | 0.8 | -0.2 to 1.9 | 0.1 |
| Ipsos | 7 | 1.7 | 0.7 to 3.0 | 1.2 |
| Emerson College | 7 | -1.4 | -3.6 to 0.7 | -0.6 |
| NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies) | 6 | -0.4 | -1.7 to 0.8 | -0.6 |
| HarrisX | 6 | 2.7 | 1.2 to 4.2 | 1.9 |
| TIPP Insights | 5 | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | -0.9 |
| Focaldata | 5 | -1.1 | -2.2 to -0.1 | -1.1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 4 | -4.0 | -5.0 to -3.0 | -1.2 |
| co/efficient | 4 | 1.0 | -1.3 to 3.2 | 2.9 |
| CNN/SSRS | 4 | 0.1 | -1.8 to 2.6 | -1.6 |
| The New York Times/Siena | 4 | 0.4 | -1.4 to 2.5 | -0.6 |
| Marist Poll | 4 | -5.5 | -7.2 to -3.8 | -3.1 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 4 | 1.7 | 0.5 to 2.9 | 2.9 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 4 | 1.3 | -0.3 to 2.5 | -0.1 |
| Big Data Poll | 4 | 1.0 | 0.2 to 2.0 | -1.1 |
| Change Research | 3 | 1.0 | -2.0 to 4.0 | -1.5 |
| The Winston Group | 3 | -1.2 | -2.0 to 0.0 | -1.0 |
Trump job approval
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 8 | -1.0 | -3.3 to 1.4 | -0.6 |
| Morning Consult | 6 | -2.8 | -5.1 to -0.5 | -5.8 |
| Quantus Insights | 6 | -5.5 | -7.4 to -3.5 | -5.9 |
| RMG Research | 5 | -8.8 | -11.4 to -6.0 | -10.0 |
| TIPP Insights | 5 | -1.6 | -4.3 to 1.1 | -5.4 |
| CBS News/YouGov | 4 | -2.8 | -4.9 to 0.5 | -3.9 |
| HarrisX | 3 | -5.0 | -7.0 to -2.0 | -8.3 |
| Gallup | 3 | 6.7 | 5.0 to 8.3 | 4.8 |
| Ipsos | 3 | 4.8 | 3.7 to 6.0 | 2.7 |
| J.L. Partners | 3 | -4.4 | -9.0 to -1.3 | -7.3 |