RMG Research
61 polls analyzed · population: 60 RV, 1 LV
Election house effect
R+3.0
95%: R+4.5 to R+1.4 · 20 polls, 4 races
Approval house effect
+8.0 net approval
95%: +6.9 net approval to +8.9 net approval · 41 polls, 1 race
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency
Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 1.15).
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Trump job approval: consistency
Its polls bounce around more than sample sizes explain (dispersion 2.14, p < 0.001).
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Head-to-head with other pollsters
Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 22 | -3.1 | -4.8 to -1.4 | -3.2 |
| Morning Consult | 15 | -1.3 | -3.2 to 0.7 | -0.8 |
| Cygnal | 12 | -3.9 | -5.9 to -1.9 | -2.2 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 11 | 1.6 | -1.3 to 4.0 | 0.7 |
| Verasight | 10 | -6.2 | -8.1 to -4.3 | -4.8 |
| Quantus Insights | 10 | -4.6 | -6.5 to -2.7 | -1.3 |
| Echelon Insights | 6 | -1.7 | -4.7 to 1.3 | -2.1 |
| Ipsos | 6 | -1.5 | -3.5 to 0.7 | -1.0 |
| NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies) | 5 | -4.4 | -8.4 to -0.2 | -2.8 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 5 | -2.2 | -6.6 to 3.0 | -3.7 |
| Change Research | 4 | -1.3 | -5.5 to 3.3 | -3.7 |
| Emerson College | 4 | -7.3 | -9.7 to -5.8 | -2.8 |
| Focaldata | 4 | -3.6 | -7.5 to 0.3 | -3.3 |
| Big Data Poll | 4 | -6.7 | -9.3 to -4.6 | -3.3 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 3 | -0.3 | -2.0 to 2.0 | -2.3 |
| AtlasIntel | 3 | -8.1 | -12.6 to -5.5 | -6.4 |
| CNN/SSRS | 3 | -1.7 | -7.0 to 6.0 | -3.8 |
| HarrisX | 3 | 3.3 | 0.0 to 7.0 | -0.3 |
| co/efficient | 3 | -2.7 | -8.0 to 0.0 | 0.7 |
Trump job approval
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 96 | 9.0 | 8.1 to 10.0 | 9.4 |
| Morning Consult | 85 | 4.6 | 3.6 to 5.6 | 4.2 |
| Ipsos | 48 | 14.0 | 12.8 to 15.1 | 12.7 |
| Quantus Insights | 34 | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 4.0 |
| Global Strategy Group | 30 | 10.7 | 9.0 to 12.3 | 10.7 |
| Echelon Insights | 28 | 7.3 | 5.7 to 8.7 | 8.7 |
| J.L. Partners | 25 | 1.6 | -1.0 to 4.0 | 2.7 |
| TIPP Insights | 24 | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 4.6 |
| Quinnipiac University | 23 | 14.0 | 12.3 to 15.8 | 13.3 |
| Emerson College | 22 | 4.5 | 3.4 to 5.6 | 4.6 |
| HarrisX | 22 | -0.4 | -3.1 to 2.1 | 1.6 |
| AP-NORC | 19 | 18.9 | 16.1 to 21.6 | 17.2 |
| ActiVote | 19 | 7.8 | 6.1 to 9.4 | 6.1 |
| Verasight | 19 | 13.1 | 11.6 to 14.7 | 12.1 |
| Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) | 17 | 9.4 | 8.0 to 11.0 | 9.6 |
| American Research Group | 17 | 20.5 | 17.7 to 23.2 | 20.6 |
| Gallup | 15 | 17.0 | 14.3 to 19.7 | 14.8 |
| John Zogby Strategies | 13 | 4.5 | 1.1 to 7.8 | 5.5 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 12 | 2.0 | -1.3 to 5.2 | 4.4 |
| CNN/SSRS | 12 | 14.6 | 12.4 to 16.8 | 15.5 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 12 | 5.8 | 3.3 to 8.2 | 6.2 |
| The Bullfinch Group | 12 | 7.5 | 4.4 to 10.8 | 8.3 |
| AtlasIntel | 12 | 10.4 | 7.6 to 13.5 | 10.0 |
| Marquette Law School Poll | 12 | 10.5 | 8.3 to 12.0 | 10.0 |
| Marist Poll | 12 | 12.1 | 9.9 to 14.0 | 11.9 |
| Big Data Poll | 12 | 1.2 | -0.5 to 2.8 | 2.4 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 11 | -7.1 | -9.8 to -4.4 | -4.9 |
| NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies) | 10 | 6.5 | 3.6 to 9.7 | 6.8 |
| Pew Research Center | 9 | 18.0 | 15.2 to 20.9 | 18.0 |
| Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage | 8 | -0.2 | -3.3 to 2.5 | 1.2 |
| SurveyMonkey | 8 | 14.4 | 11.4 to 17.1 | 12.2 |
| Navigator Research (GSG/GBAO) | 8 | 9.5 | 7.3 to 11.6 | 9.9 |
| CBS News/YouGov | 7 | 5.3 | 3.0 to 7.7 | 6.1 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 6 | 1.8 | -1.0 to 4.3 | 3.9 |
| The Winston Group | 6 | 13.7 | 9.7 to 18.0 | 12.3 |
| UMass Amherst/YouGov | 5 | 13.6 | 8.2 to 19.0 | 14.5 |
| GBAO | 5 | 10.2 | 7.4 to 12.8 | 9.4 |
| GrayHouse | 5 | 4.8 | 2.0 to 7.0 | 5.0 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | 5 | 9.0 | 6.8 to 10.8 | 9.3 |
| Tavern Research | 5 | 9.2 | 7.4 to 11.2 | 8.2 |
| Cygnal | 5 | 8.8 | 6.0 to 11.4 | 10.0 |
| co/efficient | 5 | 9.0 | 6.4 to 11.8 | 9.4 |
| Leger | 5 | 13.4 | 11.0 to 15.8 | 9.7 |
| Focaldata | 5 | 6.2 | 0.7 to 11.6 | 7.2 |
| Trafalgar Group | 5 | -10.0 | -11.7 to -7.8 | -4.8 |
| OnMessage | 4 | 4.0 | 0.5 to 7.5 | 6.2 |
| The New York Times/Siena | 4 | 11.3 | 8.5 to 13.0 | 11.6 |
| Angus Reid Global | 4 | 13.8 | 11.5 to 16.0 | 12.8 |
| Research Co. | 4 | 8.3 | 5.5 to 12.0 | 7.6 |
| Civiqs | 4 | 7.3 | 4.0 to 10.5 | 9.7 |
| Change Research | 4 | 2.0 | -3.0 to 7.0 | 5.6 |
| Targoz Market Research | 3 | 12.0 | 9.0 to 15.0 | 10.6 |
| Blueprint Polling | 3 | 13.0 | 10.0 to 16.0 | 10.9 |
| Survey 160 | 3 | 17.3 | 13.0 to 24.0 | 14.9 |
| Overton Insights | 3 | 11.7 | 9.0 to 14.0 | 12.2 |