John Zogby Strategies
20 polls analyzed · population: 1 V, 17 LV, 2 RV
Election house effect
D+0.5
95%: R+1.9 to D+2.8 · 7 polls, 3 races
Approval house effect
+2.5 net approval
95%: −0.1 net approval to +4.9 net approval · 13 polls, 1 race
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency
Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 0.79).
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Trump job approval: consistency
Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 0.79).
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Head-to-head with other pollsters
Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | 8 | -0.3 | -3.3 to 2.3 | 2.6 |
| YouGov | 7 | 0.7 | -0.7 to 2.1 | 0.2 |
| Verasight | 5 | -3.6 | -6.0 to -1.8 | -1.4 |
| Quantus Insights | 4 | 2.0 | -3.0 to 7.0 | 2.1 |
| Ipsos | 3 | 1.3 | -3.0 to 6.0 | 2.4 |
| Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) | 3 | 1.2 | -1.0 to 4.6 | -0.2 |
| Echelon Insights | 3 | -2.7 | -5.0 to -1.0 | 1.3 |
| Emerson College | 3 | 0.1 | -7.7 to 9.6 | 0.6 |
| Quinnipiac University | 3 | -3.8 | -11.0 to 3.6 | -1.5 |
Trump job approval
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 29 | 4.8 | 3.4 to 6.1 | 3.9 |
| Morning Consult | 27 | -0.1 | -1.4 to 1.2 | -1.3 |
| Ipsos | 15 | 10.0 | 8.3 to 11.9 | 7.2 |
| RMG Research | 13 | -4.5 | -7.8 to -1.1 | -5.5 |
| J.L. Partners | 12 | -1.6 | -5.8 to 2.3 | -2.8 |
| Quantus Insights | 12 | -1.6 | -3.9 to 0.8 | -1.4 |
| Emerson College | 9 | -1.7 | -5.1 to 2.4 | -0.9 |
| TIPP Insights | 9 | 0.1 | -3.5 to 3.9 | -0.9 |
| Global Strategy Group | 8 | 6.7 | 4.0 to 9.5 | 5.2 |
| AP-NORC | 8 | 15.1 | 11.0 to 18.5 | 11.7 |
| Quinnipiac University | 8 | 8.6 | 6.7 to 10.8 | 7.8 |
| Echelon Insights | 7 | 4.1 | 1.0 to 7.0 | 3.2 |
| Verasight | 7 | 9.6 | 6.3 to 13.3 | 6.6 |
| American Research Group | 7 | 17.7 | 13.7 to 21.5 | 15.1 |
| Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) | 6 | 8.3 | 6.2 to 10.5 | 4.1 |
| NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies) | 6 | 2.0 | -1.7 to 5.0 | 1.3 |
| Marist Poll | 5 | 7.8 | 4.4 to 11.0 | 6.4 |
| SurveyMonkey | 5 | 9.4 | 8.2 to 10.8 | 6.7 |
| ActiVote | 5 | 2.8 | 0.4 to 4.4 | 0.6 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 4 | -1.2 | -4.9 to 2.8 | 0.7 |
| CNN/SSRS | 4 | 11.1 | 6.2 to 16.6 | 10.0 |
| The Bullfinch Group | 4 | 2.5 | 0.3 to 3.9 | 2.9 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 4 | -1.9 | -4.3 to -0.5 | -1.1 |
| HarrisX | 4 | -5.3 | -6.5 to -4.0 | -3.9 |
| Big Data Poll | 4 | 1.8 | -1.6 to 5.1 | -3.1 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 3 | 1.7 | -5.0 to 7.0 | -1.6 |
| The Winston Group | 3 | 8.7 | 5.0 to 11.0 | 6.8 |
| UMass Amherst/YouGov | 3 | 12.3 | 9.0 to 19.0 | 9.0 |
| Trafalgar Group | 3 | -9.2 | -17.2 to -4.5 | -10.3 |
| Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage | 3 | -8.6 | -13.0 to -4.0 | -4.3 |
| Leger | 3 | 4.3 | 3.0 to 5.0 | 4.2 |
| Tavern Research | 3 | 3.7 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 2.7 |