Clarity Campaign Labs
24 polls analyzed · population: 14 RV, 10 LV
Election house effect
D+0.8
95%: R+1.0 to D+2.6 · 13 polls, 2 races
Approval house effect
+1.7 net approval
95%: −0.7 net approval to +4.1 net approval · 11 polls, 1 race
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency
Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 0.51).
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Trump job approval: consistency
Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 0.44).
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Head-to-head with other pollsters
Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 19 | 0.7 | -0.6 to 1.9 | 0.5 |
| Morning Consult | 11 | 2.1 | 0.4 to 4.1 | 2.9 |
| Cygnal | 8 | 1.4 | -0.0 to 2.6 | 1.5 |
| Verasight | 8 | -2.0 | -3.6 to -0.6 | -1.1 |
| NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies) | 8 | -1.0 | -3.3 to 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Ipsos | 8 | 2.0 | 0.1 to 4.1 | 2.7 |
| Quantus Insights | 8 | 1.7 | -0.1 to 3.6 | 2.4 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 7 | 4.0 | 1.9 to 6.8 | 4.5 |
| Emerson College | 7 | -0.5 | -3.7 to 2.7 | 0.9 |
| Echelon Insights | 6 | 0.8 | -0.7 to 2.5 | 1.6 |
| RMG Research | 5 | 2.2 | -3.0 to 6.6 | 3.7 |
| Big Data Poll | 4 | -1.9 | -7.0 to 3.3 | 0.4 |
| HarrisX | 3 | 3.7 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 3.4 |
| The Winston Group | 3 | -1.7 | -4.0 to 2.0 | 0.5 |
| Focaldata | 3 | 0.3 | -2.0 to 5.0 | 0.4 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 3 | -1.3 | -4.0 to 3.0 | 1.4 |
Trump job approval
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 26 | 3.9 | 3.0 to 4.8 | 3.1 |
| Morning Consult | 22 | -1.7 | -3.2 to -0.1 | -2.0 |
| Ipsos | 15 | 8.5 | 7.1 to 9.9 | 6.4 |
| RMG Research | 12 | -5.8 | -8.2 to -3.3 | -6.2 |
| Quantus Insights | 10 | -1.6 | -2.9 to -0.3 | -2.2 |
| Global Strategy Group | 9 | 5.3 | 3.3 to 7.3 | 4.5 |
| Emerson College | 9 | -1.5 | -3.2 to 0.4 | -1.6 |
| NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies) | 8 | 2.6 | -0.3 to 5.4 | 0.6 |
| TIPP Insights | 7 | 1.7 | -1.0 to 4.6 | -1.6 |
| Verasight | 7 | 7.9 | 5.7 to 10.0 | 5.8 |
| Echelon Insights | 6 | 2.0 | 0.8 to 3.2 | 2.4 |
| J.L. Partners | 6 | -3.2 | -7.5 to 1.2 | -3.5 |
| HarrisX | 6 | -4.8 | -7.7 to -1.8 | -4.6 |
| Gallup | 6 | 11.2 | 8.8 to 13.0 | 8.5 |
| Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) | 5 | 2.2 | 0.4 to 4.0 | 3.4 |
| Pew Research Center | 5 | 13.6 | 10.8 to 16.2 | 11.8 |
| Quinnipiac University | 5 | 9.6 | 6.0 to 13.2 | 7.1 |
| ActiVote | 5 | 1.2 | -2.0 to 3.8 | -0.1 |
| John Zogby Strategies | 4 | 1.2 | -2.8 to 4.9 | -0.7 |
| American Research Group | 4 | 14.8 | 9.5 to 18.8 | 14.4 |
| The Bullfinch Group | 4 | 1.8 | -3.5 to 7.0 | 2.1 |
| Tavern Research | 4 | -1.5 | -3.5 to 0.5 | 2.0 |
| AP-NORC | 4 | 15.5 | 10.5 to 21.0 | 10.9 |
| Big Data Poll | 4 | -3.0 | -7.0 to 1.5 | -3.8 |
| CBS News/YouGov | 3 | 1.3 | -1.0 to 3.0 | -0.1 |
| AtlasIntel | 3 | 3.8 | -0.9 to 9.1 | 3.8 |
| Leger | 3 | 7.0 | 5.0 to 9.0 | 3.5 |
| The Winston Group | 3 | 6.3 | 3.0 to 11.0 | 6.1 |
| Marquette Law School Poll | 3 | 5.3 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 3.8 |
| UMass Amherst/YouGov | 3 | 9.7 | 4.0 to 15.0 | 8.3 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 3 | 0.8 | -1.3 to 3.2 | -1.8 |
| SurveyMonkey | 3 | 6.7 | 6.0 to 7.0 | 6.0 |
| Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage | 3 | -3.6 | -7.0 to -0.2 | -5.0 |