Quantus Insights
83 polls analyzed · population: 36 RV, 47 LV
Election house effect
R+1.6
95%: R+2.7 to R+0.5 · 51 polls, 20 races
Approval house effect
+3.9 net approval
95%: +2.5 net approval to +5.3 net approval · 32 polls, 1 race
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency
Its polls cluster more tightly around its own lean than sample sizes allow (dispersion 0.35, p < 0.001). That can mean herding, or heavy weighting and modeling.
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Trump job approval: consistency
Its polls cluster more tightly around its own lean than sample sizes allow (dispersion 0.31, p < 0.001). That can mean herding, or heavy weighting and modeling.
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Head-to-head with other pollsters
Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 31 | -1.1 | -2.4 to 0.0 | -1.9 |
| Morning Consult | 24 | 1.3 | 0.3 to 2.1 | 0.5 |
| Verasight | 18 | -2.9 | -4.0 to -1.9 | -3.5 |
| Cygnal | 15 | -0.2 | -1.2 to 0.8 | -0.9 |
| Echelon Insights | 14 | -0.3 | -1.3 to 0.6 | -0.8 |
| Big Data Poll | 14 | -2.2 | -4.0 to -0.6 | -1.9 |
| Emerson College | 12 | -1.4 | -2.8 to -0.1 | -1.5 |
| Ipsos | 12 | 1.9 | 1.1 to 2.6 | 0.3 |
| RMG Research | 10 | 4.6 | 2.7 to 6.5 | 1.3 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 8 | -1.1 | -2.1 to -0.3 | -0.7 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 8 | 3.2 | 1.2 to 4.9 | 2.1 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 8 | -1.7 | -3.6 to 0.1 | -2.4 |
| Trafalgar Group | 6 | -8.4 | -22.9 to -0.2 | -0.1 |
| co/efficient | 6 | 0.1 | -1.4 to 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Marist Poll | 5 | -5.5 | -7.8 to -3.2 | -4.0 |
| HarrisX | 5 | 3.8 | 2.5 to 5.2 | 1.0 |
| NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies) | 5 | -0.2 | -1.2 to 0.6 | -1.5 |
| The New York Times/Siena | 5 | -1.3 | -4.6 to 1.5 | -1.4 |
| Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) | 5 | -2.4 | -4.4 to -0.4 | -2.2 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | 5 | -3.1 | -4.7 to -1.8 | -2.4 |
| Quinnipiac University | 4 | -4.5 | -5.7 to -2.8 | -3.5 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 4 | -1.5 | -5.5 to 3.0 | -1.0 |
| AtlasIntel | 4 | -4.5 | -10.5 to 1.2 | -5.1 |
| Focaldata | 4 | 0.4 | -0.8 to 1.9 | -2.0 |
| John Zogby Strategies | 4 | -2.0 | -7.0 to 3.0 | -2.1 |
| Suffolk University | 4 | -3.0 | -4.4 to -1.4 | -2.8 |
| Research Co. | 4 | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | -1.1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 4 | -3.5 | -5.0 to -1.9 | -1.4 |
| A2 Insights | 3 | -2.0 | -3.1 to -1.3 | -1.3 |
| TIPP Insights | 3 | 2.5 | 0.0 to 4.0 | -1.8 |
| ActiVote | 3 | -1.3 | -4.3 to 1.4 | -2.0 |
| Change Research | 3 | -1.8 | -7.4 to 3.0 | -2.4 |
| Marquette Law School Poll | 3 | -3.0 | -4.6 to -0.5 | -2.7 |
| Siena/ReconMR | 3 | -4.2 | -5.0 to -3.0 | -3.1 |
| SoCal Strategies | 3 | -2.3 | -3.7 to -1.3 | -0.9 |
| The Winston Group | 3 | -2.2 | -4.0 to -0.6 | -1.9 |
Trump job approval
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 69 | 6.0 | 5.3 to 6.7 | 5.3 |
| Morning Consult | 59 | 1.4 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.2 |
| Ipsos | 37 | 10.2 | 9.2 to 11.2 | 8.6 |
| RMG Research | 34 | -3.0 | -4.3 to -1.7 | -4.0 |
| J.L. Partners | 23 | -1.4 | -3.6 to 0.8 | -1.4 |
| American Research Group | 20 | 16.6 | 14.9 to 18.3 | 16.6 |
| Verasight | 20 | 9.6 | 8.1 to 11.1 | 8.0 |
| TIPP Insights | 20 | 2.4 | 0.9 to 3.8 | 0.5 |
| Echelon Insights | 19 | 4.2 | 3.1 to 5.3 | 4.6 |
| Global Strategy Group | 18 | 7.0 | 5.9 to 8.3 | 6.6 |
| Emerson College | 18 | 0.2 | -0.6 to 1.3 | 0.6 |
| ActiVote | 16 | 4.0 | 2.9 to 5.2 | 2.1 |
| AP-NORC | 16 | 15.0 | 12.7 to 17.1 | 13.1 |
| HarrisX | 16 | -3.3 | -5.3 to -1.4 | -2.4 |
| Quinnipiac University | 15 | 10.6 | 8.7 to 12.7 | 9.2 |
| Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) | 13 | 5.4 | 4.5 to 6.3 | 5.5 |
| Gallup | 13 | 12.8 | 11.1 to 14.5 | 10.7 |
| Big Data Poll | 12 | -1.6 | -3.4 to 0.2 | -1.6 |
| John Zogby Strategies | 12 | 1.6 | -0.8 to 3.9 | 1.4 |
| Marist Poll | 11 | 7.6 | 6.5 to 8.8 | 7.8 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 10 | 1.6 | 0.3 to 2.9 | 2.2 |
| The Bullfinch Group | 9 | 5.8 | 3.0 to 8.5 | 4.3 |
| AtlasIntel | 9 | 7.9 | 5.9 to 10.1 | 5.9 |
| CNN/SSRS | 8 | 12.1 | 10.4 to 14.0 | 11.5 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 8 | -11.5 | -14.4 to -8.4 | -8.9 |
| Marquette Law School Poll | 8 | 7.4 | 5.5 to 9.2 | 6.0 |
| Pew Research Center | 8 | 15.9 | 14.2 to 17.2 | 14.0 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 8 | -0.6 | -5.1 to 3.1 | 0.3 |
| NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies) | 7 | 2.6 | 0.3 to 4.6 | 2.8 |
| Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage | 7 | -3.2 | -4.8 to -1.6 | -2.9 |
| Tavern Research | 7 | 2.7 | 0.1 to 5.5 | 4.2 |
| CBS News/YouGov | 6 | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.4 | 2.1 |
| SurveyMonkey | 6 | 8.5 | 7.1 to 10.0 | 8.1 |
| Cygnal | 6 | 5.5 | 3.5 to 7.4 | 5.9 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | 5 | 6.8 | 4.2 to 10.0 | 5.3 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 4 | 1.5 | -2.5 to 5.5 | -0.1 |
| UMass Amherst/YouGov | 4 | 13.6 | 7.5 to 17.8 | 10.4 |
| co/efficient | 4 | 5.3 | 1.8 to 8.8 | 5.4 |
| Navigator Research (GSG/GBAO) | 4 | 5.7 | 4.3 to 7.1 | 5.8 |
| GrayHouse | 4 | 0.9 | -1.9 to 2.8 | 1.0 |
| The Winston Group | 4 | 8.7 | 7.5 to 9.8 | 8.2 |
| GBAO | 4 | 5.4 | 2.6 to 7.8 | 5.4 |
| Leger | 4 | 8.5 | 5.6 to 11.0 | 5.7 |
| Focaldata | 3 | 4.3 | 3.0 to 6.0 | 3.1 |
| Targoz Market Research | 3 | 8.3 | 8.0 to 9.0 | 6.5 |
| Civiqs | 3 | 6.7 | 4.9 to 9.8 | 5.7 |
| OnMessage | 3 | 2.8 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 2.1 |
| Angus Reid Global | 3 | 11.0 | 10.9 to 11.0 | 8.8 |
| The New York Times/Siena | 3 | 9.1 | 7.9 to 9.9 | 7.5 |
| Research Co. | 3 | 6.0 | 2.9 to 10.0 | 3.6 |
| Trafalgar Group | 3 | -11.8 | -12.9 to -10.5 | -8.8 |
| SoCal Strategies | 3 | 0.1 | -0.6 to 1.0 | -0.9 |