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2026 Arizona Governor

Margin = Katie Hobbs − Andy Biggs. 28 polls from 18 pollsters. Consensus as of Oct 7, 2026: D+7.8(95% band D+4.6 to D+11.0).

Polls and consensus

Individual poll (click to open source)Consensus, house effects removed95% band

How each pollster compares in this race

Average distance of each pollster's polls from the consensus of all other polls at the same time. The overall house effect is that pollster's lean across every race we track.

PollsterPolls hereAvg. vs consensus hereOverall house effect
Emerson College1R+4.9R+0.1
GQR1R+3.8D+1.6
The Tarrance Group1R+3.6R+1.6
Kreate Strategies2R+3.2R+0.9
Stealth Analytics1R+2.9R+0.1
GrayHouse2R+2.9R+1.8
Equis Research2R+1.9R+0.6
Quantus Insights1R+1.9R+1.6
Wick Insights1R+1.8R+1.3
Noble Predictive Insights6R+0.7R+0.6
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research1D+0.4D+0.8
Pulse Decision Science1D+0.7R+1.8
Center for Excellence in Polling1D+1.7D+0.4
NextGen Polling2D+2.4R+1.2
TIPP Insights1D+2.5D+0.1
Arizona State University1D+4.8D+1.4
BSP Research1D+4.8D+2.7
HighGround2D+8.6D+1.6

All polls

Field datesPollsterSampleResultHouse-effect adjustedSource
Oct 1, 2026 – Oct 9, 2026Equis Research1,214 RVD+6.0D+6.6release via votehub
Oct 6, 2026 – Oct 8, 2026HighGround400 LVD+17.0D+15.4release via wikipedia
Oct 6, 2026 – Oct 8, 2026GrayHouse R550 LVD+6.0D+7.9release via wikipedia
Oct 3, 2026 – Oct 6, 2026Wick Insights R1,513 LVD+6.0D+8.1release via wikipedia
Sep 30, 2026 – Oct 5, 2026GQR D600 LVD+4.0D+2.5release via wikipedia
Sep 1, 2026 – Sep 9, 2026Equis Research1,214 RVD+6.0D+6.6release via wikipedia
Aug 18, 2026 – Sep 4, 2026BSP Research— LVD+13.0D+11.0release via votehub
Aug 18, 2026 – Sep 4, 2026Arizona State University1,300 RVD+13.0D+11.6release via wikipedia
Aug 17, 2026 – Aug 19, 2026NextGen Polling R1,627 RVD+1.0D+2.2release via votehub,wikipedia
Aug 15, 2026 – Aug 18, 2026HighGround400 LVD+16.0D+14.4release via votehub
Aug 14, 2026 – Aug 17, 2026Quantus Insights R780 LVD+6.0D+8.3release via votehub,wikipedia
Aug 13, 2026 – Aug 16, 2026Kreate Strategies R900 LVD+5.0D+7.0release via votehub,wikipedia
Aug 11, 2026 – Aug 13, 2026Stealth Analytics530 LVD+5.0D+5.3release via votehub,wikipedia
Aug 10, 2026 – Aug 13, 2026Noble Predictive Insights923 LVD+13.0D+13.7release via votehub,wikipedia
Aug 9, 2026 – Aug 11, 2026GrayHouse R600 LVD+4.0D+5.9release via wikipedia
Jul 27, 2026 – Jul 30, 2026The Tarrance Group R600 LVD+4.0D+5.7release via votehub,wikipedia
Jul 26, 2026 – Jul 28, 2026Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research D913 LVD+8.0D+7.1release via votehub,wikipedia
May 5, 2026 – May 7, 2026Noble Predictive Insights996 RVD+4.0D+4.6release via votehub,wikipedia
Apr 20, 2026 – Apr 24, 2026TIPP Insights R1,159 LVD+10.0D+10.2release via wikipedia
Feb 23, 2026 – Feb 26, 2026Noble Predictive Insights1,023 RVD+5.0D+5.6release via votehub
Jan 22, 2026 – Jan 24, 2026Center for Excellence in Polling519 LVD+9.0D+8.7release via votehub,wikipedia
Dec 15, 2025 – Dec 17, 2025NextGen Polling R2,725 LVD+19.0D+20.3release via votehub,wikipedia
Nov 8, 2025 – Nov 10, 2025Emerson College850 RVD+0.7D+0.8release via votehub,wikipedia
Aug 11, 2025 – Aug 18, 2025Noble Predictive Insights948 RVD+2.0D+2.6release via votehub,wikipedia
May 12, 2025 – May 16, 2025Noble Predictive Insights1,026 RVD+2.0D+2.6release via votehub,wikipedia
Apr 6, 2025 – Apr 9, 2025Pulse Decision Science R501 LVD+4.0D+5.9release via votehub,wikipedia
Feb 11, 2025 – Feb 13, 2025Noble Predictive Insights1,006 RVD+2.0D+2.6release via votehub,wikipedia
Feb 5, 2025 – Feb 7, 2025Kreate Strategies R924 LVR+1.0D+1.0release via votehub,wikipedia