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Kreate Strategies

7 polls analyzed · population: 7 LV

Election house effect
R+0.9
95%: R+3.2 to D+1.4 · 7 polls, 2 races

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency

Its polls bounce around more than sample sizes explain (dispersion 5.95, p < 0.001).

Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall

Head-to-head with other pollsters

Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)

Show as table
Compared withPairsAvg. gap95% intervalModel estimate
Emerson College3-3.0-4.0 to -1.0-0.8
Evitarus3-4.7-7.0 to -2.0-2.3

All polls

EndedRaceSampleResultvs consensusSource
Aug 16, 20262026 Arizona Governor900 LVD+5.0R+2.9release
Jun 17, 20262026 California Governor900 LVD+25.0D+20.7release
May 27, 20262026 California Governor900 LVD+1.0D+0.7release
May 9, 20262026 California Governor900 LVR+2.0D+0.1release
Apr 18, 20262026 California Governor900 LVR+8.0R+1.5release
Mar 29, 20262026 California Governor700 LVR+17.0R+5.8release
Feb 7, 20252026 Arizona Governor924 LVR+1.0R+3.5release