GrayHouse
13 polls analyzed · population: 5 LV, 8 RV
Election house effect
R+1.8
95%: R+4.2 to D+0.4 · 9 polls, 5 races
Approval house effect
+2.9 net approval
95%: −0.3 net approval to +6.1 net approval · 4 polls, 1 race
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency
Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 0.83).
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Trump job approval: consistency
Fewer than 5 polls, so not enough to judge how consistent its polls are.
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Head-to-head with other pollsters
Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 7 | -1.2 | -2.3 to -0.1 | -2.1 |
| Emerson College | 3 | -0.8 | -5.0 to 2.0 | -1.7 |
| Ipsos | 3 | 1.7 | 1.0 to 3.0 | 0.1 |
| Morning Consult | 3 | 1.7 | -1.0 to 3.0 | 0.3 |
Trump job approval
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | 10 | -0.3 | -2.5 to 1.4 | -0.8 |
| YouGov | 9 | 4.3 | 2.8 to 5.7 | 4.4 |
| RMG Research | 5 | -4.8 | -7.0 to -2.0 | -5.0 |
| Global Strategy Group | 4 | 8.0 | 4.8 to 11.0 | 5.7 |
| Ipsos | 4 | 10.0 | 6.5 to 13.0 | 7.6 |
| Quantus Insights | 4 | -0.9 | -2.8 to 1.9 | -1.0 |
| HarrisX | 3 | -4.3 | -8.0 to -1.0 | -3.4 |
| J.L. Partners | 3 | -3.7 | -12.0 to 5.0 | -2.3 |
| TIPP Insights | 3 | -0.9 | -4.0 to 1.0 | -0.4 |
All polls
| Ended | Race | Sample | Result | vs consensus | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2025 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 1,475 RV | −8.0 net approval | +4.2 | release |
| Jul 29, 2025 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 2,000 RV | −5.0 net approval | +3.5 | release |
| Jun 2, 2025 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 2,000 RV | −1.0 net approval | +4.6 | release |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 1,100 RV | −6.0 net approval | −0.6 | release |
| Oct 8, 2026 | 2026 Arizona Governor | 550 LV | D+6.0 | R+1.8 | release |
| Oct 4, 2026 | 2026 Arkansas Senate | 550 LV | R+11.0 | R+1.7 | release |
| Aug 11, 2026 | 2026 Arizona Governor | 600 LV | D+4.0 | R+3.9 | release |
| Jun 24, 2026 | 2026 Montana Senate | 500 LV | R+24.0 | R+7.3 | release |
| Feb 23, 2026 | 2026 Generic congressional ballot | 1,394 RV | D+3.0 | R+2.1 | release |
| Feb 9, 2026 | 2026 Arkansas Senate | 550 LV | R+22.0 | R+9.8 | release |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2026 Generic congressional ballot | 2,058 RV | D+4.0 | D+0.3 | release |
| Jul 29, 2025 | 2026 Generic congressional ballot | 2,000 RV | D+3.0 | 0 | release |
| Apr 24, 2025 | 2026 New York Governor | 600 RV | D+8.0 | R+6.7 | release |