Ipsos
62 polls analyzed · population: 24 RV, 3 ?, 35 A
Election house effect
R+2.0
95%: R+3.2 to R+0.7 · 18 polls, 1 race
Approval house effect
−4.7 net approval
95%: −5.8 net approval to −3.7 net approval · 44 polls, 1 race
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency
Its polls cluster more tightly around its own lean than sample sizes allow (dispersion 0.19, p < 0.001). That can mean herding, or heavy weighting and modeling.
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Trump job approval: consistency
Its polls cluster more tightly around its own lean than sample sizes allow (dispersion 0.53, p = 0.010). That can mean herding, or heavy weighting and modeling.
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Head-to-head with other pollsters
Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 41 | -1.2 | -1.9 to -0.5 | -2.2 |
| Morning Consult | 33 | -0.7 | -1.4 to 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Verasight | 19 | -4.7 | -6.0 to -3.6 | -3.8 |
| Echelon Insights | 16 | -2.3 | -3.1 to -1.6 | -1.1 |
| Quantus Insights | 12 | -1.9 | -2.6 to -1.1 | -0.3 |
| Emerson College | 11 | -4.2 | -5.6 to -2.6 | -1.8 |
| Big Data Poll | 9 | -3.9 | -5.3 to -2.4 | -2.3 |
| HarrisX | 8 | 2.4 | 1.0 to 3.6 | 0.7 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 8 | -2.0 | -4.1 to -0.1 | -2.7 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 7 | 1.1 | -0.7 to 2.9 | 1.7 |
| Marquette Law School Poll | 7 | -4.9 | -6.6 to -2.7 | -3.0 |
| Cygnal | 7 | -1.7 | -3.0 to -0.7 | -1.2 |
| RMG Research | 6 | 1.5 | -0.7 to 3.5 | 1.0 |
| The Winston Group | 6 | -3.0 | -4.3 to -1.7 | -2.2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 5 | -7.6 | -9.0 to -6.0 | -3.9 |
| Focaldata | 5 | -2.0 | -3.7 to -0.7 | -2.3 |
| NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies) | 5 | -2.2 | -5.6 to 0.2 | -1.9 |
| CNN/SSRS | 4 | -0.8 | -4.0 to 2.5 | -2.8 |
| Impact Research | 4 | -3.0 | -5.8 to -1.3 | -2.4 |
| Survey 160 | 4 | -6.3 | -7.0 to -5.5 | -4.2 |
| Pennsylvania State University McCourtney Institute for Democracy/YouGov | 3 | -3.0 | -3.0 to -3.0 | -1.8 |
| John Zogby Strategies | 3 | -1.3 | -6.0 to 3.0 | -2.4 |
| Marist Poll | 3 | -10.0 | -13.0 to -5.0 | -4.3 |
| GrayHouse | 3 | -1.7 | -3.0 to -1.0 | -0.1 |
| The New York Times/Siena | 3 | -5.6 | -9.4 to -3.0 | -1.8 |
| The Bullfinch Group | 3 | -3.3 | -5.0 to -2.0 | -4.7 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 3 | -3.0 | -5.0 to 0.0 | -1.8 |
Trump job approval
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 99 | -4.7 | -5.3 to -3.9 | -3.3 |
| Morning Consult | 90 | -9.3 | -10.1 to -8.5 | -8.4 |
| RMG Research | 48 | -14.0 | -15.1 to -12.8 | -12.7 |
| Quantus Insights | 37 | -10.2 | -11.2 to -9.2 | -8.6 |
| Echelon Insights | 33 | -6.3 | -7.4 to -5.2 | -4.0 |
| Global Strategy Group | 33 | -2.9 | -3.9 to -2.0 | -2.0 |
| J.L. Partners | 28 | -11.6 | -13.7 to -9.6 | -10.0 |
| American Research Group | 26 | 6.6 | 4.9 to 8.2 | 7.9 |
| Quinnipiac University | 26 | -1.2 | -2.9 to 0.3 | 0.6 |
| Verasight | 26 | -0.9 | -2.3 to 0.4 | -0.6 |
| Emerson College | 26 | -9.7 | -10.9 to -8.4 | -8.0 |
| ActiVote | 24 | -6.2 | -7.2 to -5.1 | -6.5 |
| AP-NORC | 24 | 4.0 | 2.0 to 5.9 | 4.5 |
| TIPP Insights | 23 | -7.8 | -9.4 to -6.3 | -8.1 |
| HarrisX | 22 | -13.3 | -15.2 to -11.5 | -11.0 |
| Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) | 20 | -4.5 | -5.9 to -3.0 | -3.1 |
| CNN/SSRS | 17 | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 2.9 |
| The Bullfinch Group | 17 | -5.2 | -7.2 to -3.3 | -4.3 |
| Gallup | 16 | 3.1 | 1.4 to 4.6 | 2.1 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 15 | -8.5 | -9.9 to -7.1 | -6.4 |
| John Zogby Strategies | 15 | -10.0 | -11.9 to -8.3 | -7.2 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 14 | -20.5 | -22.4 to -18.5 | -17.6 |
| Big Data Poll | 13 | -11.7 | -14.4 to -8.9 | -10.2 |
| Marquette Law School Poll | 13 | -3.0 | -5.5 to -0.7 | -2.6 |
| AtlasIntel | 12 | -3.5 | -5.5 to -1.3 | -2.7 |
| NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies) | 12 | -7.0 | -8.8 to -5.3 | -5.8 |
| Marist Poll | 12 | -2.0 | -3.3 to -0.7 | -0.8 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 12 | -11.6 | -15.3 to -8.6 | -8.3 |
| The Winston Group | 8 | -0.5 | -2.5 to 1.6 | -0.4 |
| SurveyMonkey | 7 | -0.3 | -1.1 to 0.6 | -0.5 |
| Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage | 6 | -13.5 | -15.6 to -11.8 | -11.5 |
| Tavern Research | 6 | -6.2 | -9.3 to -2.3 | -4.5 |
| Navigator Research (GSG/GBAO) | 6 | -3.7 | -5.5 to -1.8 | -2.8 |
| CBS News/YouGov | 6 | -5.8 | -8.5 to -3.0 | -6.5 |
| Pew Research Center | 5 | 4.8 | 3.2 to 7.0 | 5.4 |
| The New York Times/Siena | 5 | -1.0 | -3.0 to 0.6 | -1.1 |
| GBAO | 5 | -4.8 | -7.0 to -3.2 | -3.2 |
| Civiqs | 5 | -3.4 | -4.4 to -2.6 | -3.0 |
| Trafalgar Group | 5 | -23.5 | -25.1 to -21.9 | -17.5 |
| UMass Amherst/YouGov | 5 | 2.6 | -1.2 to 6.8 | 1.8 |
| co/efficient | 5 | -4.0 | -6.0 to -1.4 | -3.2 |
| Focaldata | 5 | -5.8 | -9.6 to -1.6 | -5.5 |
| Angus Reid Global | 4 | -1.0 | -2.0 to 1.0 | 0.1 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 4 | -9.8 | -16.0 to -3.5 | -8.7 |
| Research Co. | 4 | -3.3 | -5.5 to 0.3 | -5.0 |
| Survey 160 | 4 | 2.5 | -1.5 to 6.0 | 2.3 |
| GrayHouse | 4 | -10.0 | -13.0 to -6.5 | -7.6 |
| ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos | 4 | -2.0 | -3.0 to -0.8 | -0.7 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | 4 | -3.8 | -6.0 to -1.5 | -3.3 |
| SoCal Strategies | 4 | -10.8 | -13.3 to -8.0 | -9.5 |
| Talker Research | 4 | -13.8 | -15.0 to -12.0 | -12.3 |
| Leger | 4 | -4.5 | -7.5 to -2.5 | -2.9 |
| Impact Research | 4 | -7.8 | -10.0 to -5.8 | -6.2 |
| Blueprint Polling | 3 | -3.0 | -5.0 to -2.0 | -1.7 |
| Public Religion Research Institute | 3 | 2.3 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 1.3 |
| Overton Insights | 3 | -1.0 | -5.0 to 3.0 | -0.5 |
| Cygnal | 3 | -4.8 | -6.0 to -3.7 | -2.7 |
| RealClear Opinion Research | 3 | -7.3 | -11.0 to -4.0 | -6.9 |
| NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ | 3 | 0.3 | -3.0 to 2.0 | -0.6 |
| OnMessage | 3 | -9.3 | -13.0 to -6.0 | -6.5 |
| Targoz Market Research | 3 | -3.7 | -5.0 to -1.0 | -2.1 |