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Global Strategy Group

36 polls analyzed · population: 24 RV, 12 LV · declared affiliation: D

Election house effect
D+0.7
95%: R+1.4 to D+2.9 · 12 polls, 6 races
Approval house effect
−2.7 net approval
95%: −4.3 net approval to −1.2 net approval · 24 polls, 1 race

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency

Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 0.58).

Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall

Trump job approval: consistency

Its polls cluster more tightly around its own lean than sample sizes allow (dispersion 0.24, p < 0.001). That can mean herding, or heavy weighting and modeling.

Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall

Head-to-head with other pollsters

Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)

Show as table
Compared withPairsAvg. gap95% intervalModel estimate
Emerson College46.42.3 to 9.50.8

Trump job approval

Show as table
Compared withPairsAvg. gap95% intervalModel estimate
YouGov61-1.2-1.9 to -0.5-1.3
Morning Consult58-6.2-7.0 to -5.3-6.5
Ipsos332.92.0 to 3.92.0
RMG Research30-10.7-12.3 to -9.0-10.7
Quantus Insights18-7.0-8.3 to -5.9-6.6
Echelon Insights15-3.7-5.1 to -2.3-2.0
AP-NORC159.37.5 to 11.06.5
Verasight151.50.1 to 2.91.4
Quinnipiac University142.40.9 to 3.92.6
TIPP Insights13-4.5-5.2 to -3.7-6.1
Emerson College12-6.5-8.0 to -4.9-6.0
J.L. Partners12-9.4-11.8 to -6.8-8.0
HarrisX12-10.2-12.4 to -8.4-9.0
Gallup114.83.0 to 6.64.1
ActiVote10-4.6-5.6 to -3.4-4.5
NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies)10-2.3-3.8 to -0.9-3.8
Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.)10-1.1-2.5 to 0.4-1.1
American Research Group99.36.7 to 11.99.9
Clarity Campaign Labs9-5.3-7.3 to -3.3-4.5
Big Data Poll8-8.1-9.8 to -6.0-8.3
Marquette Law School Poll80.4-2.0 to 2.9-0.6
John Zogby Strategies8-6.7-9.5 to -4.0-5.2
CNN/SSRS85.95.0 to 7.04.9
The Bullfinch Group7-2.4-4.7 to 0.0-2.3
Marist Poll71.90.7 to 3.01.2
InsiderAdvantage6-18.2-20.8 to -15.8-15.6
Pew Research Center68.56.3 to 10.57.4
Leger50.0-1.6 to 1.4-0.9
SurveyMonkey53.20.0 to 6.41.5
The Winston Group52.80.0 to 5.41.6
Tavern Research4-1.3-5.3 to 3.0-2.5
UMass Amherst/YouGov42.0-1.0 to 5.03.8
GrayHouse4-8.0-11.0 to -4.8-5.7
Navigator Research (GSG/GBAO)40.00.0 to 0.0-0.8
Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage4-13.2-18.8 to -8.2-9.5
AtlasIntel30.0-2.7 to 3.1-0.7
NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ30.0-2.0 to 3.01.4
The New York Times/Siena32.02.0 to 2.00.9
GBAO30.7-1.0 to 3.0-1.2
Talker Research3-13.7-14.0 to -13.0-10.4
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research3-2.7-5.0 to 1.0-1.4
Noble Predictive Insights3-5.3-8.0 to 0.0-6.7
Survey 16037.35.0 to 10.04.3
CBS News/YouGov3-2.3-4.0 to 0.0-4.5

All polls

EndedRaceSampleResultvs consensusSource
Jun 8, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 RV−18.0 net approval+0.1release
May 18, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 RV−20.0 net approval−2.5release
Apr 27, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 RV−18.0 net approval−0.6release
Apr 6, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 RV−18.0 net approval−1.9release
Feb 23, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 RV−17.0 net approval−3.4release
Feb 1, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 RV−15.0 net approval−1.8release
Jan 12, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 RV−14.0 net approval−2.7release
Dec 8, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 RV−14.0 net approval−3.2release
Nov 9, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 RV−18.0 net approval−5.8release
Nov 3, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 RV−15.0 net approval−3.7release
Oct 27, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 RV−16.0 net approval−5.8release
Oct 20, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 RV−12.0 net approval−3.1release
Oct 13, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 RV−10.0 net approval−0.9release
Oct 5, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 RV−10.0 net approval−1.1release
Sep 8, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 RV−10.0 net approval−2.6release
Aug 11, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 RV−12.0 net approval−3.2release
Jul 19, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 RV−11.0 net approval−2.7release
Jun 30, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 RV−8.0 net approval−1.1release
Jun 9, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 RV−13.0 net approval−7.0release
May 18, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 RV−10.0 net approval−4.6release
Apr 28, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 RV−10.0 net approval−3.0release
Apr 7, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 RV−9.0 net approval−5.2release
Mar 17, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,375 RV−2.0 net approval−0.2release
Feb 3, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 RV+2.0 net approval−2.1release
Oct 13, 20262026 Nevada Governor700 LVR+1.0D+2.1release
Sep 16, 20262026 Kansas Senate800 LVD+2.0D+1.3release
Sep 16, 20262026 Kansas Governor800 LVD+3.0D+6.0release
Aug 31, 20262026 Iowa Senate800 LVD+4.0D+2.7release
Aug 16, 20262026 Kansas Senate800 LVD+1.0D+1.6release
Aug 16, 20262026 Kansas Governor600 LVD+1.0D+3.6release
Jun 11, 20262026 Iowa Senate1,000 LVD+2.0D+2.0release
May 21, 20262026 California Governor800 LVR+3.0R+1.9release
May 11, 20262026 Nevada Governor700 LVR+3.0D+0.1release
Mar 2, 20262026 California Governor1,340 LVR+15.0R+2.4release
Feb 3, 20262026 California Governor— LVR+14.0R+2.8release
Sep 25, 20252025 New Jersey Governor800 LVD+7.0D+1.4release