Noble Predictive Insights
19 polls analyzed · population: 2 LV, 17 RV
Election house effect
R+0.6
95%: R+2.3 to D+1.1 · 14 polls, 3 races
Approval house effect
+4.0 net approval
95%: +0.2 net approval to +7.5 net approval · 5 polls, 1 race
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency
Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 0.54).
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Trump job approval: consistency
Its polls bounce around more than sample sizes explain (dispersion 3.85, p < 0.001).
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Head-to-head with other pollsters
Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 7 | -0.9 | -2.3 to 0.6 | -0.9 |
| Morning Consult | 5 | 0.4 | -1.6 to 2.2 | 1.5 |
| Quantus Insights | 4 | 1.5 | -3.0 to 5.5 | 1.0 |
| NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies) | 4 | -0.5 | -3.5 to 1.0 | -0.5 |
| Cygnal | 4 | -1.3 | -2.5 to 0.3 | 0.1 |
| RMG Research | 3 | 0.3 | -2.0 to 2.0 | 2.3 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 3 | 1.3 | -3.0 to 4.0 | -1.4 |
Trump job approval
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 11 | 4.9 | 1.9 to 8.0 | 5.4 |
| Morning Consult | 9 | 1.1 | -2.7 to 4.7 | 0.3 |
| RMG Research | 6 | -1.8 | -4.3 to 1.0 | -3.9 |
| Quantus Insights | 4 | -1.5 | -5.5 to 2.5 | 0.1 |
| Ipsos | 4 | 9.8 | 3.5 to 16.0 | 8.7 |
| HarrisX | 4 | -6.5 | -10.3 to -0.8 | -2.3 |
| NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies) | 4 | 1.3 | -2.5 to 5.0 | 2.9 |
| John Zogby Strategies | 3 | -1.7 | -7.0 to 5.0 | 1.6 |
| J.L. Partners | 3 | -4.3 | -15.0 to 5.0 | -1.3 |
| TIPP Insights | 3 | 2.0 | -1.0 to 5.0 | 0.6 |
| Global Strategy Group | 3 | 5.3 | 0.0 to 8.0 | 6.7 |