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J.L. Partners

27 polls analyzed · population: 24 RV, 3 LV

Election house effect
D+0.1
95%: R+2.7 to D+2.9 · 5 polls, 3 races
Approval house effect
+5.3 net approval
95%: +3.4 net approval to +7.2 net approval · 22 polls, 1 race

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency

Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 1.45).

Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall

Trump job approval: consistency

Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 1.53).

Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall

Head-to-head with other pollsters

Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)

Show as table
Compared withPairsAvg. gap95% intervalModel estimate
YouGov51.80.2 to 3.4-0.2
Morning Consult43.32.3 to 4.52.2
Verasight3-0.2-3.6 to 4.0-1.8

Trump job approval

Show as table
Compared withPairsAvg. gap95% intervalModel estimate
YouGov516.85.3 to 8.36.7
Morning Consult442.51.0 to 4.11.5
Ipsos2811.69.6 to 13.710.0
RMG Research25-1.6-4.0 to 1.0-2.7
Quantus Insights231.4-0.8 to 3.61.4
HarrisX16-0.7-3.6 to 2.5-1.1
TIPP Insights153.40.7 to 6.41.9
Quinnipiac University1511.79.1 to 14.710.6
Verasight1211.78.6 to 15.39.4
Echelon Insights125.63.3 to 7.66.0
AP-NORC1216.313.1 to 19.814.5
Global Strategy Group129.46.8 to 11.88.0
John Zogby Strategies121.6-2.3 to 5.82.8
Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.)128.05.3 to 10.86.9
Emerson College120.9-2.6 to 4.41.9
American Research Group1118.613.7 to 22.717.9
Gallup915.012.6 to 17.112.1
ActiVote94.92.7 to 7.33.4
Big Data Poll9-0.2-2.0 to 1.9-0.3
NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies)76.62.9 to 10.24.1
CBS News/YouGov73.90.0 to 8.03.4
AtlasIntel68.95.5 to 12.77.3
SurveyMonkey613.58.8 to 18.79.5
Clarity Campaign Labs63.2-1.2 to 7.53.5
Tavern Research63.31.0 to 5.75.5
The Bullfinch Group66.71.5 to 11.05.7
UMass Amherst/YouGov616.313.7 to 19.011.8
McLaughlin & Associates6-0.6-4.3 to 3.51.7
Marist Poll510.27.6 to 12.69.2
Marquette Law School Poll53.01.0 to 4.47.3
CNN/SSRS59.86.4 to 13.412.8
Trafalgar Group5-9.2-12.4 to -6.0-7.5
The Winston Group514.610.6 to 19.09.6
GBAO45.82.8 to 8.56.8
Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage4-8.8-13.1 to -4.6-1.5
Civiqs45.5-0.5 to 11.57.0
InsiderAdvantage3-9.0-13.0 to -3.0-7.6
Overton Insights39.04.0 to 13.09.5
OnMessage32.3-2.0 to 6.03.5
Pew Research Center316.711.0 to 25.015.3
Cygnal34.41.3 to 9.07.3
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research36.34.0 to 10.06.6
Navigator Research (GSG/GBAO)39.70.0 to 15.07.2
GrayHouse33.7-5.0 to 12.02.3
Noble Predictive Insights34.3-5.0 to 15.01.3

All polls

EndedRaceSampleResultvs consensusSource
Jun 21, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,042 RV−6.0 net approval+11.4release
May 18, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,003 RV−13.0 net approval+4.5release
Apr 8, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,013 RV−13.0 net approval+3.5release
Mar 24, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,019 RV−8.0 net approval+8.3release
Mar 20, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,037 RV−14.0 net approval+1.5release
Mar 3, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,022 RV−11.0 net approval+3.1release
Feb 27, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,097 RV−3.0 net approval+10.3release
Jan 26, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,037 RV−10.0 net approval+3.3release
Dec 21, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 RV−4.0 net approval+7.1release
Dec 5, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 RV−4.0 net approval+6.8release
Nov 20, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,296 RV−8.0 net approval+4.2release
Oct 15, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,004 RV+2.0 net approval+10.9release
Sep 1, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)867 RV+10.0 net approval+17.6release
Jul 22, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,007 RV−1.0 net approval+7.0release
Jul 10, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 RV−4.0 net approval+3.8release
Jun 6, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,006 RV−6.0 net approval0release
Apr 28, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,006 RV−10.0 net approval−3.0release
Apr 14, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,002 RV+6.0 net approval+11.4release
Apr 3, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,019 RV+5.0 net approval+8.8release
Mar 27, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,001 RV−1.0 net approval+1.8release
Mar 7, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,019 RV−2.0 net approval−0.7release
Feb 25, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,001 RV+6.0 net approval+5.0release
Aug 18, 20262026 Arkansas Senate803 LVR+16.0R+6.9release
Nov 20, 20252026 Generic congressional ballot797 LVD+4.00release
Nov 10, 20252026 New York Governor500 LVD+11.0R+5.0release
Oct 15, 20252026 Generic congressional ballot1,004 RVD+6.0D+2.6release
Jun 6, 20252026 Generic congressional ballot1,006 RVD+7.0D+4.5release