← All pollsters

Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research

20 polls analyzed · population: 14 LV, 6 RV

Election house effect
D+0.8
95%: R+0.9 to D+2.4 · 17 polls, 15 races
Approval house effect
−1.4 net approval
95%: −4.8 net approval to +2.3 net approval · 3 polls, 1 race

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency

Its polls cluster more tightly around its own lean than sample sizes allow (dispersion 0.10, p < 0.001). That can mean herding, or heavy weighting and modeling.

Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall

Trump job approval: consistency

Fewer than 5 polls, so not enough to judge how consistent its polls are.

Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall

Head-to-head with other pollsters

Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)

Show as table
Compared withPairsAvg. gap95% intervalModel estimate
Quantus Insights53.11.8 to 4.72.4
The New York Times/Siena43.81.5 to 6.01.0
YouGov3-1.7-3.0 to -1.00.5
McLaughlin & Associates35.0-1.1 to 8.04.5

Trump job approval

Show as table
Compared withPairsAvg. gap95% intervalModel estimate
Morning Consult6-3.9-8.0 to -0.5-5.1
YouGov60.7-2.7 to 4.00.0
RMG Research5-9.0-10.8 to -6.8-9.3
Quantus Insights5-6.8-10.0 to -4.2-5.3
Ipsos43.81.5 to 6.03.3
Quinnipiac University34.3-2.0 to 8.04.0
J.L. Partners3-6.3-10.0 to -4.0-6.6
Global Strategy Group32.7-1.0 to 5.01.4
Marquette Law School Poll32.0-1.0 to 5.00.7

All polls

EndedRaceSampleResultvs consensusSource
Jul 20, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,500 RV−6.0 net approval+2.3release
Apr 1, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,500 RV−5.0 net approval−2.2release
Feb 1, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)3,000 RV+1.0 net approval−3.1release
Sep 22, 20262026 Maine Senate982 LVD+3.0D+0.8release
Sep 22, 20262026 Maine Governor982 LVD+13.0D+1.8release
Sep 20, 20262026 North Carolina Senate1,806 LVD+11.0D+0.9release
Sep 11, 20262026 Alaska Senate800 LVD+6.0D+0.8release
Sep 11, 20262026 Alaska Governor800 LVD+10.0R+1.5release
Sep 1, 20262026 Texas Senate895 LVD+4.0D+1.0release
Sep 1, 20262026 Texas Governor895 LVR+3.0R+0.1release
Aug 11, 20262026 Michigan Senate877 LVD+1.0R+0.9release
Aug 11, 20262026 Michigan Governor877 LVD+5.0R+2.0release
Jul 28, 20262026 Arizona Governor913 LVD+8.0D+0.4release
Jul 16, 20262026 Georgia Senate1,060 LVD+9.0D+0.9release
Jul 16, 20262026 Georgia Governor1,060 LVD+2.0D+0.1release
Jun 16, 20262026 Ohio Senate800 LVD+3.0D+0.5release
Jun 16, 20262026 Ohio Governor800 LVD+3.0D+1.8release
Jul 20, 20252026 Generic congressional ballot1,500 RVD+3.0D+0.9release
Apr 1, 20252026 Generic congressional ballot1,500 RVD+1.0R+0.3release
Feb 1, 20252026 Generic congressional ballot3,000 RVEvenD+0.7release