McLaughlin & Associates
31 polls analyzed · population: 3 RV, 28 LV · declared affiliation: R
Election house effect
R+3.7
95%: R+5.2 to R+2.2 · 23 polls, 5 races
Approval house effect
+3.6 net approval
95%: +0.7 net approval to +6.6 net approval · 8 polls, 1 race
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency
Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 0.62).
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Trump job approval: consistency
Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 1.82).
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Head-to-head with other pollsters
Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 21 | -2.7 | -4.0 to -1.4 | -4.0 |
| Morning Consult | 16 | -1.5 | -2.4 to -0.6 | -1.6 |
| Echelon Insights | 14 | -3.5 | -4.4 to -2.5 | -2.9 |
| Verasight | 12 | -7.3 | -9.2 to -5.2 | -5.5 |
| RMG Research | 11 | -1.6 | -4.0 to 1.3 | -0.7 |
| Quantus Insights | 8 | -3.2 | -4.9 to -1.2 | -2.1 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 7 | -4.0 | -6.8 to -1.9 | -4.5 |
| Ipsos | 7 | -1.1 | -2.9 to 0.7 | -1.7 |
| Emerson College | 6 | -3.7 | -6.9 to -0.8 | -3.6 |
| NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies) | 5 | -3.7 | -7.0 to -1.2 | -3.6 |
| AtlasIntel | 5 | -12.1 | -14.4 to -8.2 | -7.2 |
| Big Data Poll | 4 | -3.7 | -5.3 to -2.3 | -4.0 |
| Cygnal | 4 | -1.7 | -2.9 to -0.5 | -2.9 |
| Quinnipiac University | 3 | -7.0 | -11.0 to -3.0 | -5.6 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | 3 | -5.0 | -8.0 to 1.1 | -4.5 |
| Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) | 3 | -4.5 | -8.4 to -1.0 | -4.3 |
| The New York Times/Siena | 3 | -6.3 | -8.0 to -4.4 | -3.5 |
Trump job approval
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 18 | 8.0 | 5.0 to 10.9 | 5.0 |
| Morning Consult | 15 | 3.0 | 0.8 to 5.2 | -0.2 |
| RMG Research | 12 | -2.0 | -5.2 to 1.3 | -4.4 |
| Ipsos | 12 | 11.6 | 8.6 to 15.3 | 8.3 |
| Echelon Insights | 8 | 5.6 | 1.9 to 9.9 | 4.3 |
| Quantus Insights | 8 | 0.6 | -3.1 to 5.1 | -0.3 |
| Emerson College | 6 | 0.6 | -3.2 to 5.5 | 0.2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 6 | 12.0 | 9.0 to 14.7 | 8.9 |
| American Research Group | 6 | 20.8 | 13.9 to 27.8 | 16.2 |
| J.L. Partners | 6 | 0.6 | -3.5 to 4.3 | -1.7 |
| Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) | 5 | 11.4 | 6.8 to 15.4 | 5.2 |
| AtlasIntel | 5 | 9.5 | 5.1 to 16.6 | 5.6 |
| ActiVote | 5 | 4.0 | 2.9 to 5.0 | 1.8 |
| Gallup | 4 | 14.4 | 10.3 to 22.2 | 10.4 |
| CNN/SSRS | 4 | 10.0 | 6.7 to 12.7 | 11.2 |
| John Zogby Strategies | 4 | 1.9 | 0.5 to 4.3 | 1.1 |
| The Bullfinch Group | 3 | 7.3 | 3.3 to 10.0 | 4.0 |
| Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage | 3 | -4.8 | -7.4 to -3.4 | -3.2 |
| AP-NORC | 3 | 18.4 | 16.0 to 21.0 | 12.8 |
| Big Data Poll | 3 | 0.6 | -9.1 to 5.9 | -2.0 |
| TIPP Insights | 3 | 2.5 | -2.2 to 5.8 | 0.2 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 3 | -0.8 | -3.2 to 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Verasight | 3 | 13.5 | 9.6 to 19.0 | 7.7 |