CNN/SSRS
25 polls analyzed · population: 5 A, 8 LV, 12 RV
Election house effect
D+0.8
95%: R+1.0 to D+2.7 · 13 polls, 9 races
Approval house effect
−7.6 net approval
95%: −9.6 net approval to −5.6 net approval · 12 polls, 1 race
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency
Its polls cluster more tightly around its own lean than sample sizes allow (dispersion 0.25, p < 0.001). That can mean herding, or heavy weighting and modeling.
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Trump job approval: consistency
Its polls cluster more tightly around its own lean than sample sizes allow (dispersion 0.36, p = 0.030). That can mean herding, or heavy weighting and modeling.
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Head-to-head with other pollsters
Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 15 | 0.7 | -0.3 to 1.6 | 0.6 |
| Morning Consult | 10 | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 3.0 |
| The New York Times/Siena | 5 | 0.8 | -1.2 to 2.8 | 1.0 |
| Marist Poll | 5 | -2.0 | -5.2 to 1.2 | -1.6 |
| Emerson College | 5 | 0.6 | -3.3 to 3.9 | 0.9 |
| Big Data Poll | 5 | 0.9 | -4.4 to 5.7 | 0.5 |
| Ipsos | 4 | 0.8 | -2.5 to 4.0 | 2.8 |
| Suffolk University | 4 | -1.8 | -4.8 to 1.5 | -0.3 |
| Cygnal | 4 | -0.1 | -2.6 to 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Verasight | 3 | -3.3 | -4.0 to -3.0 | -1.0 |
| RMG Research | 3 | 1.7 | -6.0 to 7.0 | 3.8 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 3 | -1.7 | -6.0 to 2.0 | 1.0 |
| UMass Lowell/YouGov | 3 | 1.0 | -2.0 to 3.0 | 1.5 |
Trump job approval
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 25 | -7.1 | -8.2 to -6.0 | -6.2 |
| Morning Consult | 20 | -11.9 | -13.5 to -10.4 | -11.3 |
| Ipsos | 17 | -2.4 | -3.6 to -1.2 | -2.9 |
| RMG Research | 12 | -14.6 | -16.8 to -12.4 | -15.5 |
| Emerson College | 10 | -12.5 | -13.7 to -11.3 | -10.9 |
| TIPP Insights | 8 | -7.6 | -10.0 to -4.6 | -11.0 |
| Quantus Insights | 8 | -12.1 | -14.0 to -10.4 | -11.5 |
| Global Strategy Group | 8 | -5.9 | -7.0 to -5.0 | -4.9 |
| Echelon Insights | 7 | -8.4 | -10.9 to -6.0 | -6.9 |
| HarrisX | 6 | -17.2 | -20.7 to -14.5 | -13.9 |
| J.L. Partners | 5 | -9.8 | -13.4 to -6.4 | -12.8 |
| American Research Group | 5 | 2.0 | -1.4 to 4.8 | 5.1 |
| ActiVote | 5 | -9.1 | -9.9 to -8.3 | -9.4 |
| Quinnipiac University | 5 | -3.0 | -5.2 to -0.4 | -2.3 |
| Verasight | 5 | -2.6 | -5.2 to -0.6 | -3.5 |
| Big Data Poll | 5 | -12.7 | -14.9 to -10.6 | -13.1 |
| John Zogby Strategies | 4 | -11.1 | -16.6 to -6.2 | -10.0 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 4 | -10.0 | -12.7 to -6.7 | -11.2 |
| AP-NORC | 4 | 1.5 | -1.0 to 4.5 | 1.6 |
| AtlasIntel | 4 | -5.2 | -6.2 to -4.1 | -5.6 |
| Civiqs | 3 | -4.0 | -7.0 to 0.0 | -5.8 |
| Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage | 3 | -12.7 | -16.6 to -8.2 | -14.3 |
| Gallup | 3 | 1.3 | -2.0 to 5.0 | -0.8 |
| Marist Poll | 3 | -2.0 | -7.0 to 2.0 | -3.7 |