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Suffolk University

17 polls analyzed · population: 3 RV, 14 LV

Election house effect
D+1.1
95%: R+1.0 to D+3.4 · 17 polls, 12 races

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency

Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 0.52).

Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall

Head-to-head with other pollsters

Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)

Show as table
Compared withPairsAvg. gap95% intervalModel estimate
Marist Poll80.8-1.5 to 2.9-1.2
The New York Times/Siena64.21.3 to 7.71.4
YouGov60.1-3.8 to 4.00.9
Washington Post/George Mason University50.1-3.0 to 3.2-0.7
Emerson College56.13.7 to 8.71.3
CNN/SSRS41.8-1.5 to 4.80.3
Quantus Insights43.01.4 to 4.42.8
co/efficient46.93.3 to 12.34.8
Rasmussen Reports30.00.0 to 0.01.3
Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.)30.7-3.0 to 3.00.5
Big Data Poll33.8-0.7 to 10.10.8
InsiderAdvantage32.30.0 to 5.02.1

All polls

EndedRaceSampleResultvs consensusSource
Oct 18, 20262026 Massachusetts Governor500 LVD+23.0D+0.9release
Oct 17, 20262026 Massachusetts Senate500 LVD+28.0D+3.6release
Oct 11, 20262026 Maine Senate500 LVD+2.0R+0.1release
Oct 11, 20262026 Maine Governor500 LVD+11.0R+0.2release
Oct 4, 20262026 Iowa Senate500 LVD+4.0D+2.9release
Oct 4, 20262026 Iowa Governor500 LVD+12.0D+4.8release
Sep 27, 20262026 Ohio Senate500 LVD+3.0R+0.7release
Sep 27, 20262026 Ohio Governor500 LVD+9.0D+5.6release
Sep 20, 20262026 Michigan Senate500 LVD+7.0D+4.3release
Sep 20, 20262026 Michigan Governor500 LVD+17.0D+10.3release
Aug 23, 20262026 Iowa Senate500 LVR+4.6R+5.5release
Aug 23, 20262026 Iowa Governor500 LVD+4.2R+2.5release
Jun 12, 20262026 Massachusetts Senate500 RVD+25.0D+2.5release
Jun 12, 20262026 Massachusetts Governor500 RVD+25.0D+2.6release
Nov 23, 20252026 Massachusetts Senate500 RVD+23.0R+0.3release
Oct 29, 20252025 New Jersey Governor500 LVD+4.0R+1.3release
Oct 21, 20252025 Virginia Governor500 LVD+8.6R+0.2release