← All pollsters

InsiderAdvantage

35 polls analyzed · population: 34 LV, 1 RV

Election house effect
R+0.9
95%: R+2.4 to D+0.6 · 25 polls, 16 races
Approval house effect
+12.8 net approval
95%: +9.8 net approval to +15.8 net approval · 10 polls, 1 race

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency

Its polls bounce around more than sample sizes explain (dispersion 6.55, p < 0.001).

Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall

Trump job approval: consistency

Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 0.89).

Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall

Head-to-head with other pollsters

Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)

Show as table
Compared withPairsAvg. gap95% intervalModel estimate
Quantus Insights81.10.3 to 2.10.7
Rasmussen Reports7-1.4-3.1 to 0.5-0.7
Trafalgar Group60.8-1.5 to 2.60.6
co/efficient53.82.0 to 6.22.7
The New York Times/Siena50.6-1.6 to 2.8-0.7
Big Data Poll5-2.1-2.8 to -1.3-1.2
YouGov4-2.8-5.1 to -0.8-1.2
Marist Poll4-4.3-7.0 to -1.5-3.3
Emerson College3-0.4-1.2 to 0.5-0.8
GBAO3-2.3-4.0 to -1.0-2.9
Suffolk University3-2.3-5.0 to 0.0-2.1

Trump job approval

Show as table
Compared withPairsAvg. gap95% intervalModel estimate
YouGov2417.615.9 to 19.414.3
Morning Consult2311.18.9 to 13.29.1
Ipsos1420.518.5 to 22.417.6
RMG Research117.14.4 to 9.84.9
Echelon Insights814.512.1 to 16.813.6
Quantus Insights811.58.4 to 14.48.9
Verasight819.315.4 to 23.117.0
HarrisX78.85.3 to 11.96.5
American Research Group629.225.3 to 32.825.5
Global Strategy Group618.215.8 to 20.815.6
ActiVote614.111.5 to 16.411.0
TIPP Insights59.93.8 to 14.69.5
Emerson College511.98.1 to 15.99.5
Quinnipiac University421.416.3 to 26.318.2
Gallup422.718.5 to 26.919.7
Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.)416.112.5 to 19.614.5
Big Data Poll46.1-0.6 to 12.87.3
J.L. Partners39.03.0 to 13.07.6
AtlasIntel322.316.6 to 29.314.9
Marist Poll317.015.0 to 19.016.8
The Bullfinch Group315.89.0 to 21.313.2
Trafalgar Group31.70.4 to 4.00.1
Tavern Research317.715.0 to 20.013.1

All polls

EndedRaceSampleResultvs consensusSource
Apr 27, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)800 LV−5.0 net approval+12.4release
Feb 18, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)800 LV+3.6 net approval+17.3release
Feb 1, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 LV+1.0 net approval+14.3release
Dec 20, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)800 LV+9.0 net approval+20.1release
Nov 21, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)800 LV−5.0 net approval+7.2release
Sep 30, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)800 LV+6.0 net approval+14.9release
Aug 17, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 LV+10.4 net approval+18.5release
Jun 16, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 LV+10.3 net approval+17.3release
May 18, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 LV+11.0 net approval+16.4release
Jan 20, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)800 RV+17.0 net approval+10.5release
Oct 14, 20262026 Texas Senate1,200 LVR+1.0R+3.1release
Oct 14, 20262026 Maine Senate1,200 LVD+2.0R+0.2release
Oct 14, 20262026 Kansas Senate1,200 LVR+1.0R+2.0release
Oct 13, 20262026 Georgia Governor800 LVR+2.0R+0.9release
Oct 10, 20262026 Michigan Senate1,200 LVD+2.0R+0.4release
Oct 10, 20262026 Kansas Senate1,200 LVD+1.0R+0.1release
Oct 10, 20262026 Alaska Senate1,200 LVD+46.0D+40.3release
Sep 29, 20262026 South Carolina Senate1,200 LVR+1.0D+0.6release
Sep 29, 20262026 Ohio Senate1,200 LVD+1.0R+2.5release
Sep 29, 20262026 Minnesota Senate1,200 LVD+1.0R+3.3release
Sep 23, 20262026 Maine Senate1,200 LVEvenR+2.2release
Sep 23, 20262026 Iowa Senate1,200 LVD+1.0R+0.3release
Sep 23, 20262026 Georgia Senate1,200 LVD+8.0R+1.2release
Sep 23, 20262026 Georgia Governor1,200 LVR+2.0R+1.1release
Sep 21, 20262026 Florida Senate600 LVR+7.5R+2.0release
Sep 17, 20262026 New Hampshire Senate1,200 LVD+8.0D+1.1release
Sep 17, 20262026 North Carolina Senate1,200 LVD+5.9R+4.2release
Sep 17, 20262026 Michigan Senate1,200 LVD+2.0R+0.8release
Sep 9, 20262026 Texas Senate1,200 LVD+1.5R+1.4release
Sep 9, 20262026 South Carolina Senate1,200 LVR+1.9D+0.1release
Sep 9, 20262026 Ohio Senate1,200 LVD+5.4D+1.4release
Aug 17, 20262026 Georgia Senate800 LVD+7.5R+1.1release
Aug 17, 20262026 Georgia Governor800 LVR+0.1R+0.7release
Nov 3, 20252025 Virginia Governor800 LVD+10.0D+0.8release
Oct 15, 20252025 New Jersey Governor800 LVD+1.1R+4.3release