2026 Minnesota Senate
Margin = Peggy Flanagan − Michele Tafoya. 17 polls from 14 pollsters. Consensus as of Oct 14, 2026: D+4.4(95% band D+1.4 to D+7.5).
Polls and consensus
Individual poll (click to open source)Consensus, house effects removed95% band
How each pollster compares in this race
Average distance of each pollster's polls from the consensus of all other polls at the same time. The overall house effect is that pollster's lean across every race we track.
| Pollster | Polls here | Avg. vs consensus here | Overall house effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient | 1 | R+3.3 | R+3.6 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 1 | R+3.3 | R+0.9 |
| Big Data Poll | 1 | R+2.3 | D+0.3 |
| TIPP Insights | 1 | R+2.3 | D+0.1 |
| SurveyUSA | 3 | R+1.8 | R+1.1 |
| Trafalgar Group | 1 | R+1.4 | R+1.5 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 1 | R+1.4 | R+0.2 |
| Quantus Insights | 1 | R+0.5 | R+1.6 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1 | R+0.4 | R+1.1 |
| Morning Consult | 1 | R+0.4 | R+2.1 |
| Impact Research | 2 | D+0.4 | D+0.4 |
| Deep Root Analytics | 1 | D+0.4 | R+0.9 |
| Emerson College | 1 | D+1.0 | R+0.1 |
| GQR | 1 | D+3.7 | D+1.6 |
All polls
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Result | House-effect adjusted | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 – Oct 15, 2026 | Trafalgar Group R | 1,079 LV | D+3.0 | D+4.7 | release via wikipedia |
| Oct 8, 2026 – Oct 12, 2026 | SurveyUSA | 718 LV | D+3.0 | D+4.3 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Oct 5, 2026 – Oct 7, 2026 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 800 LV | D+4.0 | D+5.2 | release via wikipedia |
| Oct 5, 2026 – Oct 7, 2026 | Rasmussen Reports R | 856 LV | D+3.0 | D+3.5 | release via wikipedia |
| Oct 2, 2026 – Oct 7, 2026 | Morning Consult | 1,000 RV | D+4.0 | D+6.2 | release via wikipedia |
| Oct 1, 2026 – Oct 4, 2026 | GQR D | 800 LV | D+8.0 | D+6.5 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Sep 29, 2026 – Sep 30, 2026 | Big Data Poll R | 622 LV | D+2.0 | D+2.8 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Sep 28, 2026 – Sep 29, 2026 | InsiderAdvantage R | 1,200 LV | D+1.0 | D+2.2 | release via wikipedia |
| Sep 14, 2026 – Sep 15, 2026 | co/efficient R | 833 LV | D+1.0 | D+4.7 | release via wikipedia |
| Sep 9, 2026 – Sep 14, 2026 | SurveyUSA | 654 LV | Even | D+1.3 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Sep 8, 2026 – Sep 10, 2026 | Quantus Insights R | 720 LV | D+3.8 | D+6.0 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Aug 31, 2026 – Sep 2, 2026 | TIPP Insights R | 1,201 LV | D+2.0 | D+2.2 | release via wikipedia |
| Aug 17, 2026 – Aug 18, 2026 | Deep Root Analytics R | 597 RV | D+5.0 | D+5.9 | release via wikipedia |
| Aug 13, 2026 – Aug 17, 2026 | SurveyUSA | 661 LV | D+5.0 | D+6.3 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| May 26, 2026 – May 28, 2026 | Impact Research D | 808 LV | D+7.0 | D+6.4 | release via wikipedia |
| Feb 6, 2026 – Feb 8, 2026 | Emerson College | 1,000 LV | D+6.5 | D+6.7 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Jul 8, 2025 – Jul 11, 2025 | Impact Research D | 604 LV | D+3.0 | D+2.4 | release via wikipedia |