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SurveyUSA

19 polls analyzed · population: 1 A, 2 RV, 16 LV

Election house effect
R+1.1
95%: R+3.1 to D+1.1 · 18 polls, 10 races
Approval house effect
+3.6 net approval
95%: −2.4 net approval to +8.7 net approval · 1 polls, 1 race

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency

Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 1.09).

Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall

Trump job approval: consistency

Fewer than 5 polls, so not enough to judge how consistent its polls are.

Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall

Head-to-head with other pollsters

Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)

Show as table
Compared withPairsAvg. gap95% intervalModel estimate
Evitarus3-8.3-11.0 to -4.0-2.4

All polls

EndedRaceSampleResultvs consensusSource
Feb 16, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)2,000 A+6.0 net approval+4.1release
Oct 12, 20262026 Minnesota Senate718 LVD+3.0R+1.4release
Oct 12, 20262026 Minnesota Governor718 LVD+7.0R+2.5release
Oct 11, 20262026 North Carolina Senate643 LVD+14.0D+3.6release
Sep 30, 20262026 New Mexico Senate576 LVD+18.0D+1.3release
Sep 30, 20262026 New Mexico Governor567 LVD+6.0R+2.3release
Sep 20, 20262026 California Governor742 LVD+22.0D+5.7release
Sep 14, 20262026 Minnesota Senate654 LVEvenR+4.3release
Sep 14, 20262026 Minnesota Governor654 LVD+7.0R+2.8release
Sep 13, 20262026 Nebraska Senate503 LVD+4.0D+3.5release
Sep 13, 20262026 Nebraska Governor503 LVR+8.0R+6.0release
Aug 17, 20262026 Minnesota Senate661 LVD+5.0D+0.3release
Aug 17, 20262026 Minnesota Governor661 LVD+16.0D+5.3release
May 31, 20262026 California Governor1,124 LVR+3.0R+3.3release
May 1, 20262026 California Governor991 LVR+10.0R+6.8release
Apr 10, 20262026 California Governor788 LVR+14.0R+5.2release
Jan 30, 20262026 Minnesota Governor575 RVD+15.0D+2.0release
May 30, 20252025 New Jersey Governor576 LVD+13.0D+4.2release
Mar 4, 20252026 Massachusetts Senate775 RVD+19.0R+1.6release