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2026 North Carolina Senate

Margin = Roy Cooper − Michael Whatley. 47 polls from 22 pollsters. Consensus as of Oct 14, 2026: D+10.4(95% band D+7.3 to D+13.6).

Polls and consensus

Individual poll (click to open source)Consensus, house effects removed95% band

How each pollster compares in this race

Average distance of each pollster's polls from the consensus of all other polls at the same time. The overall house effect is that pollster's lean across every race we track.

PollsterPolls hereAvg. vs consensus hereOverall house effect
Public Policy Polling2R+6.0D+0.4
Victory Insights1R+4.9R+1.6
Quantus Insights2R+4.8R+1.6
InsiderAdvantage1R+4.2R+0.9
Trafalgar Group2R+3.1R+1.5
East Carolina University2R+2.4R+0.5
High Point University Survey Research Center3R+2.4Even
The New York Times/Siena1R+2.2R+0.2
Change Research7R+1.0D+0.8
Emerson College1R+0.5R+0.1
Opinion Diagnostics2R+0.4R+0.8
Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.)1D+0.2D+0.6
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research1D+0.9D+0.8
Harper Polling7D+1.1D+0.2
Big Data Poll1D+1.8D+0.3
Elon University/YouGov3D+2.2D+0.9
YouGov3D+3.3D+0.3
Catawba College / YouGov3D+3.4D+1.7
ActiVote1D+3.6D+0.4
SurveyUSA1D+3.6R+1.1
Nexus Strategies/Strategic Partners Solutions1D+7.8D+1.4
TIPP Insights1D+14.8D+0.1

All polls

Field datesPollsterSampleResultHouse-effect adjustedSource
Oct 8, 2026 – Oct 20, 2026ActiVote400 LVD+14.0D+13.7release via wikipedia
Oct 7, 2026 – Oct 11, 2026SurveyUSA643 LVD+14.0D+15.3release via votehub,wikipedia
Oct 8, 2026 – Oct 10, 2026Trafalgar Group R1,091 LVD+8.0D+9.7release via wikipedia
Sep 29, 2026 – Oct 8, 2026Elon University/YouGov561 LVD+13.0D+12.2release via votehub,wikipedia
Oct 1, 2026 – Oct 7, 2026Change Research D829 LVD+10.0D+9.1release via votehub,wikipedia
Sep 30, 2026 – Oct 3, 2026East Carolina University810 LVD+7.0D+7.6release via votehub,wikipedia
Sep 27, 2026 – Sep 29, 2026Big Data Poll642 LVD+12.0D+11.4release via votehub,wikipedia
Sep 21, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026Quantus Insights R686 LVD+5.0D+7.3release via wikipedia
Sep 17, 2026 – Sep 20, 2026Opinion Diagnostics857 LVD+10.0D+10.6release via wikipedia
Sep 17, 2026 – Sep 20, 2026Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research D1,806 LVD+11.0D+10.1release via wikipedia
Sep 15, 2026 – Sep 18, 2026YouGov3,742 LVD+12.0D+11.8release via wikipedia
Sep 16, 2026 – Sep 17, 2026InsiderAdvantage R1,200 LVD+5.9D+7.1release via votehub,wikipedia
Sep 9, 2026 – Sep 16, 2026High Point University Survey Research Center706 LVD+8.0D+8.1release via votehub,wikipedia
Sep 13, 2026 – Sep 15, 2026Harper Polling R608 LVD+15.0D+14.9release via votehub,wikipedia
Sep 4, 2026 – Sep 15, 2026Catawba College / YouGov885 LVD+12.0D+10.4release via wikipedia
Sep 8, 2026 – Sep 10, 2026Trafalgar Group R1,084 LVD+6.0D+7.7release via wikipedia
Aug 31, 2026 – Sep 3, 2026East Carolina University675 LVD+8.0D+8.6release via votehub,wikipedia
Aug 21, 2026 – Aug 31, 2026Elon University/YouGov565 LVD+11.0D+10.2release via votehub,wikipedia
Aug 3, 2026 – Aug 12, 2026High Point University Survey Research Center660 LVD+5.0D+5.1release via votehub,wikipedia
Aug 9, 2026 – Aug 10, 2026Harper Polling R600 LVD+12.5D+12.4release via votehub,wikipedia
Aug 3, 2026 – Aug 6, 2026Change Research D915 LVD+7.0D+6.1release via votehub,wikipedia
Jul 29, 2026 – Aug 1, 2026Change Research D967 LVD+9.0D+8.1release via votehub,wikipedia
Jul 23, 2026 – Jul 31, 2026Elon University/YouGov466 LVD+11.0D+10.2release via wikipedia
Jul 23, 2026 – Jul 27, 2026Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) R1,005 RVD+9.0D+8.5release via votehub,wikipedia
Jul 10, 2026 – Jul 11, 2026Public Policy Polling D759 LVD+4.0D+3.6release via votehub,wikipedia
Jun 15, 2026 – Jun 27, 2026The New York Times/Siena601 LVD+7.0D+7.3release via votehub,wikipedia
Jun 1, 2026 – Jun 10, 2026YouGov905 LVD+14.0D+13.8release via votehub
Jun 1, 2026 – Jun 10, 2026Catawba College / YouGov905 LVD+14.0D+12.4release via wikipedia
May 10, 2026 – May 11, 2026Harper Polling R600 LVD+11.1D+11.0release via votehub,wikipedia
May 4, 2026 – May 8, 2026Change Research D957 LVD+7.0D+6.1release via votehub,wikipedia
Apr 21, 2026 – Apr 24, 2026Opinion Diagnostics R830 LVD+9.0D+10.9release via votehub,wikipedia
Mar 26, 2026 – Apr 6, 2026High Point University Survey Research Center703 LVD+8.0D+8.1release via votehub,wikipedia
Mar 31, 2026 – Apr 1, 2026Quantus Insights R987 LVD+5.0D+7.3release via wikipedia
Mar 22, 2026 – Mar 23, 2026Harper Polling R600 LVD+7.8D+7.7release via votehub,wikipedia
Mar 9, 2026 – Mar 18, 2026YouGov871 LVD+14.0D+13.8release via votehub
Mar 9, 2026 – Mar 18, 2026Catawba College / YouGov1,000 LVD+14.0D+12.4release via wikipedia
Mar 13, 2026 – Mar 14, 2026Public Policy Polling D556 RVD+3.0D+2.5release via votehub,wikipedia
Mar 8, 2026 – Mar 9, 2026Nexus Strategies/Strategic Partners Solutions800 LVD+18.0D+16.7release via votehub,wikipedia
Jan 31, 2026 – Feb 4, 2026Change Research D1,069 RVD+10.0D+9.0release via votehub,wikipedia
Jan 12, 2026 – Jan 15, 2026TIPP Insights R1,512 RVD+24.0D+24.1release via votehub,wikipedia
Jan 5, 2026 – Jan 7, 2026Change Research D1,105 LVD+5.0D+4.1release via votehub,wikipedia
Nov 9, 2025 – Nov 10, 2025Harper Polling R600 LVD+8.0D+7.9release via votehub,wikipedia
Sep 14, 2025 – Sep 15, 2025Harper Polling R600 LVD+4.0D+3.9release via votehub,wikipedia
Sep 2, 2025 – Sep 8, 2025Change Research D855 LVD+7.0D+6.1release via votehub,wikipedia
Aug 11, 2025 – Aug 12, 2025Harper Polling R600 LVD+8.2D+8.1release via votehub,wikipedia
Jul 28, 2025 – Jul 30, 2025Victory Insights R600 LVD+0.9D+2.6release via votehub,wikipedia
Jul 28, 2025 – Jul 30, 2025Emerson College1,000 RVD+5.3D+5.4release via votehub,wikipedia