Change Research
26 polls analyzed · population: 17 LV, 9 RV · declared affiliation: D
Election house effect
D+0.8
95%: R+0.9 to D+2.4 · 23 polls, 9 races
Approval house effect
+2.4 net approval
95%: −0.9 net approval to +5.5 net approval · 3 polls, 1 race
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency
Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 1.19).
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Trump job approval: consistency
Fewer than 5 polls, so not enough to judge how consistent its polls are.
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Head-to-head with other pollsters
Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 10 | 1.6 | -0.4 to 3.7 | 0.5 |
| Morning Consult | 8 | 0.4 | -0.5 to 1.1 | 2.9 |
| RMG Research | 4 | 1.3 | -3.3 to 5.5 | 3.7 |
| Focaldata | 3 | -2.8 | -4.4 to 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Quantus Insights | 3 | 1.8 | -3.0 to 7.4 | 2.4 |
| Cygnal | 3 | -1.0 | -4.0 to 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Verasight | 3 | -2.3 | -3.0 to -2.0 | -1.1 |
Trump job approval
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 6 | 2.3 | 1.0 to 3.5 | 3.8 |
| Morning Consult | 6 | -3.0 | -4.5 to -1.5 | -1.3 |
| RMG Research | 4 | -2.0 | -7.0 to 3.0 | -5.6 |