2026 Florida Senate
Margin = Angie Nixon − Ashley Moody. 18 polls from 13 pollsters. Consensus as of Oct 7, 2026: R+6.0(95% band R+8.6 to R+3.4).
Polls and consensus
Individual poll (click to open source)Consensus, house effects removed95% band
How each pollster compares in this race
Average distance of each pollster's polls from the consensus of all other polls at the same time. The overall house effect is that pollster's lean across every race we track.
| Pollster | Polls here | Avg. vs consensus here | Overall house effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | 3 | R+5.1 | R+3.0 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1 | R+4.2 | R+1.1 |
| Targoz Market Research | 1 | R+4.2 | R+1.9 |
| Univision / YouGov | 1 | R+3.0 | Even |
| Emerson College | 1 | R+2.5 | R+0.1 |
| Quantus Insights | 1 | R+2.1 | R+1.6 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 1 | R+2.0 | R+0.9 |
| University of North Florida | 2 | R+0.8 | R+1.0 |
| MDW Communications | 1 | R+0.1 | D+1.3 |
| ActiVote | 1 | R+0.1 | D+0.4 |
| YouGov | 1 | D+0.8 | D+0.3 |
| St. Pete Polls | 2 | D+4.5 | D+2.1 |
| Change Research | 2 | D+4.9 | D+0.8 |
All polls
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Result | House-effect adjusted | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 – Oct 15, 2026 | Univision / YouGov | 825 RV | R+9.0 | R+9.0 | release via wikipedia |
| Sep 27, 2026 – Oct 15, 2026 | ActiVote | 400 LV | R+6.0 | R+6.3 | release via wikipedia |
| Oct 4, 2026 – Oct 10, 2026 | MDW Communications | 800 LV | R+6.0 | R+6.8 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Oct 1, 2026 – Oct 9, 2026 | Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | 716 LV | R+11.0 | R+7.9 | release via wikipedia |
| Oct 5, 2026 – Oct 7, 2026 | St. Pete Polls | 836 LV | R+2.0 | R+4.0 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Sep 28, 2026 – Oct 5, 2026 | YouGov | 3,813 LV | R+5.0 | R+5.2 | release via wikipedia |
| Sep 28, 2026 – Oct 4, 2026 | Targoz Market Research | 857 LV | R+10.0 | R+8.0 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Sep 28, 2026 – Oct 1, 2026 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 625 LV | R+10.0 | R+8.8 | release via wikipedia |
| Sep 25, 2026 – Sep 27, 2026 | Change Research D | 1,063 LV | R+1.0 | R+1.9 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Sep 20, 2026 – Sep 21, 2026 | InsiderAdvantage R | 600 LV | R+7.5 | R+6.3 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Sep 14, 2026 – Sep 21, 2026 | Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | 830 LV | R+11.0 | R+7.9 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Sep 15, 2026 – Sep 17, 2026 | St. Pete Polls | 913 LV | R+0.4 | R+2.4 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Sep 8, 2026 – Sep 10, 2026 | Quantus Insights R | 733 LV | R+7.4 | R+5.2 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Sep 7, 2026 – Sep 9, 2026 | Change Research D | 1,107 LV | Even | R+0.9 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Jul 8, 2026 – Jul 17, 2026 | University of North Florida | 848 LV | R+8.0 | R+6.7 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Mar 25, 2026 – Apr 13, 2026 | Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | 848 LV | R+13.0 | R+9.9 | release via votehub |
| Mar 29, 2026 – Mar 31, 2026 | Emerson College | 1,125 LV | R+11.0 | R+10.8 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Feb 21, 2026 – Mar 2, 2026 | University of North Florida | 768 LV | R+8.0 | R+6.7 | release via votehub,wikipedia |