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Targoz Market Research

10 polls analyzed · population: 4 LV, 6 RV

Election house effect
R+1.9
95%: R+4.5 to D+0.7 · 8 polls, 4 races
Approval house effect
−2.6 net approval
95%: −7.1 net approval to +2.3 net approval · 2 polls, 1 race

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency

Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 0.45).

Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall

Trump job approval: consistency

Fewer than 5 polls, so not enough to judge how consistent its polls are.

Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall

Head-to-head with other pollsters

Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.

Trump job approval

Show as table
Compared withPairsAvg. gap95% intervalModel estimate
Morning Consult4-3.5-6.5 to -1.5-6.3
YouGov4-2.0-4.0 to 0.0-1.2
RMG Research3-12.0-15.0 to -9.0-10.6
Quantus Insights3-8.3-9.0 to -8.0-6.5
Ipsos33.71.0 to 5.02.1

All polls

EndedRaceSampleResultvs consensusSource
Jun 26, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,200 RV−11.0 net approval−4.1release
Mar 28, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,200 RV−5.0 net approval−2.2release
Oct 4, 20262026 Florida Senate857 LVR+10.0R+4.2release
Oct 4, 20262026 Florida Governor857 LVR+10.0R+6.2release
Aug 26, 20262026 Tennessee Senate1,157 RVR+20.0R+2.8release
Aug 26, 20262026 Tennessee Governor601 LVR+21.0R+4.9release
Jul 26, 20262026 Florida Governor1,338 RVR+4.0R+1.8release
Apr 27, 20262026 Tennessee Governor1,157 RVR+24.0R+5.0release
Feb 16, 20262026 Florida Governor1,129 LVR+5.0R+1.8release
Sep 18, 20252026 Florida Governor1,118 RVR+4.0R+0.3release