YouGov
166 polls analyzed · population: 27 LV, 126 RV, 13 A
Election house effect
D+0.3
95%: R+0.5 to D+1.0 · 83 polls, 25 races
Approval house effect
−1.4 net approval
95%: −2.2 net approval to −0.7 net approval · 83 polls, 1 race
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency
Its polls cluster more tightly around its own lean than sample sizes allow (dispersion 0.51, p < 0.001). That can mean herding, or heavy weighting and modeling.
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Trump job approval: consistency
Its polls cluster more tightly around its own lean than sample sizes allow (dispersion 0.67, p = 0.010). That can mean herding, or heavy weighting and modeling.
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Head-to-head with other pollsters
Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | 84 | 1.1 | 0.6 to 1.6 | 2.4 |
| Ipsos | 41 | 1.2 | 0.5 to 1.9 | 2.2 |
| Echelon Insights | 36 | -0.4 | -1.1 to 0.4 | 1.1 |
| Verasight | 35 | -3.0 | -3.7 to -2.1 | -1.6 |
| Cygnal | 31 | 0.5 | -0.2 to 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Quantus Insights | 31 | 1.1 | -0.0 to 2.4 | 1.9 |
| Big Data Poll | 29 | -1.0 | -2.5 to 0.3 | -0.1 |
| Emerson College | 28 | -0.6 | -2.3 to 1.1 | 0.4 |
| RMG Research | 22 | 3.1 | 1.4 to 4.8 | 3.2 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 21 | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 19 | -0.7 | -1.9 to 0.6 | -0.5 |
| NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies) | 16 | -0.6 | -1.8 to 0.6 | 0.4 |
| CNN/SSRS | 15 | -0.7 | -1.6 to 0.3 | -0.6 |
| The Winston Group | 13 | -0.9 | -2.3 to 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Focaldata | 13 | -1.8 | -2.7 to -0.7 | -0.1 |
| Marist Poll | 12 | -5.4 | -7.0 to -3.9 | -2.1 |
| Marquette Law School Poll | 12 | -2.3 | -4.1 to -0.3 | -0.8 |
| The New York Times/Siena | 12 | -0.7 | -2.5 to 0.8 | 0.5 |
| HarrisX | 11 | 2.9 | 1.9 to 3.8 | 2.9 |
| Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) | 11 | 0.2 | -1.6 to 2.0 | -0.4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10 | 0.4 | -0.8 to 1.8 | 0.4 |
| Change Research | 10 | -1.6 | -3.7 to 0.4 | -0.5 |
| Quinnipiac University | 10 | -4.1 | -6.2 to -1.9 | -1.7 |
| AtlasIntel | 9 | -5.5 | -9.9 to -0.5 | -3.2 |
| GBAO | 8 | -2.4 | -3.6 to -1.3 | -1.7 |
| The Bullfinch Group | 7 | -4.1 | -5.7 to -2.4 | -2.5 |
| GrayHouse | 7 | 1.2 | 0.1 to 2.3 | 2.1 |
| co/efficient | 7 | 4.7 | 2.1 to 7.3 | 3.9 |
| John Zogby Strategies | 7 | -0.7 | -2.1 to 0.7 | -0.2 |
| Trafalgar Group | 7 | 2.9 | 1.4 to 4.3 | 1.8 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 7 | 0.9 | -0.6 to 2.3 | 0.9 |
| TIPP Insights | 6 | 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 0.1 |
| Impact Research | 6 | -1.3 | -3.3 to 0.3 | -0.2 |
| Survey 160 | 6 | -5.3 | -7.3 to -2.8 | -2.0 |
| Suffolk University | 6 | -0.1 | -4.0 to 3.8 | -0.9 |
| The Public Sentiment Institute | 5 | -5.6 | -6.4 to -5.0 | -1.2 |
| J.L. Partners | 5 | -1.8 | -3.4 to -0.2 | 0.2 |
| UMass Amherst/YouGov | 5 | 0.2 | -0.6 to 1.2 | 0.1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 5 | -0.4 | -3.8 to 5.4 | -0.2 |
| Univision / YouGov | 4 | 1.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 0.2 |
| KFF | 4 | -3.5 | -4.0 to -3.0 | -1.1 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 4 | 2.8 | 0.8 to 5.1 | 1.2 |
| Guidant Polling & Strategy | 4 | 0.1 | -3.0 to 3.3 | 0.3 |
| Pennsylvania State University McCourtney Institute for Democracy/YouGov | 4 | 0.3 | -1.0 to 1.5 | 0.4 |
| UMass Lowell/YouGov | 4 | 0.3 | -1.0 to 2.0 | 0.9 |
| National Public Affairs | 4 | 3.0 | 1.8 to 4.0 | 2.7 |
| ActiVote | 4 | 0.3 | -2.9 to 2.5 | -0.2 |
| Research Co. | 4 | -1.5 | -2.0 to -1.0 | 0.8 |
| The Rainey Center | 3 | 2.3 | 1.0 to 3.0 | 0.8 |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | 3 | -3.3 | -5.0 to -1.0 | 0.1 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | 3 | 1.7 | 1.0 to 3.0 | -0.5 |
| SoCal Strategies | 3 | 1.7 | -3.0 to 5.0 | 1.0 |
| Bedrock Polling | 3 | 2.3 | 1.0 to 3.0 | 0.8 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 3 | 1.0 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 0.1 |
| High Point University Survey Research Center | 3 | -1.3 | -6.0 to 4.0 | 0.3 |
| Texas Politics Project (UT Austin)/YouGov | 3 | 1.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 0.3 |
| Talker Research | 3 | -1.3 | -3.0 to 1.0 | 0.3 |
| Fabrizio Ward | 3 | -3.0 | -4.0 to -2.0 | 1.4 |
| Catawba College / YouGov | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.0 | -1.5 |
| Yale Youth Poll | 3 | 2.0 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 1.8 |
| Leger | 3 | -5.0 | -5.0 to -5.0 | -0.5 |
| Z to A Research | 3 | -4.7 | -7.0 to -1.0 | -0.4 |
Trump job approval
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | 193 | -5.0 | -5.5 to -4.6 | -5.2 |
| Ipsos | 99 | 4.7 | 3.9 to 5.3 | 3.3 |
| RMG Research | 96 | -9.0 | -10.0 to -8.1 | -9.4 |
| Quantus Insights | 69 | -6.0 | -6.7 to -5.3 | -5.3 |
| Global Strategy Group | 61 | 1.2 | 0.5 to 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Echelon Insights | 55 | -1.8 | -2.6 to -0.9 | -0.7 |
| J.L. Partners | 51 | -6.8 | -8.3 to -5.3 | -6.7 |
| TIPP Insights | 48 | -3.6 | -4.8 to -2.5 | -4.8 |
| Verasight | 46 | 3.3 | 2.4 to 4.3 | 2.7 |
| Quinnipiac University | 44 | 3.8 | 2.7 to 4.9 | 3.9 |
| Emerson College | 44 | -5.4 | -6.5 to -4.4 | -4.8 |
| AP-NORC | 43 | 9.2 | 7.6 to 10.7 | 7.8 |
| American Research Group | 38 | 11.0 | 9.7 to 12.4 | 11.2 |
| HarrisX | 36 | -8.6 | -9.8 to -7.5 | -7.7 |
| Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) | 36 | 0.0 | -1.1 to 1.1 | 0.2 |
| ActiVote | 35 | -2.4 | -3.3 to -1.4 | -3.2 |
| Big Data Poll | 31 | -7.7 | -8.9 to -6.5 | -7.0 |
| John Zogby Strategies | 29 | -4.8 | -6.1 to -3.4 | -3.9 |
| The Bullfinch Group | 28 | -1.6 | -3.0 to -0.2 | -1.0 |
| Gallup | 27 | 6.2 | 4.7 to 7.6 | 5.4 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 26 | -3.9 | -4.8 to -3.0 | -3.1 |
| CNN/SSRS | 25 | 7.1 | 6.0 to 8.2 | 6.2 |
| Marquette Law School Poll | 25 | 0.4 | -1.4 to 2.4 | 0.7 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 24 | -17.6 | -19.4 to -15.9 | -14.3 |
| Marist Poll | 23 | 3.5 | 2.2 to 4.8 | 2.5 |
| NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies) | 21 | -1.8 | -3.1 to -0.3 | -2.5 |
| AtlasIntel | 21 | 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 0.6 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 18 | -8.0 | -10.9 to -5.0 | -5.0 |
| Pew Research Center | 16 | 9.1 | 7.4 to 10.9 | 8.7 |
| SurveyMonkey | 15 | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 2.8 |
| Leger | 15 | 0.6 | -0.3 to 1.5 | 0.4 |
| Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage | 14 | -9.7 | -12.1 to -7.2 | -8.2 |
| Tavern Research | 14 | -2.6 | -5.0 to -0.1 | -1.2 |
| The Winston Group | 13 | 2.4 | 0.1 to 4.5 | 2.9 |
| GBAO | 13 | 1.1 | -0.2 to 2.6 | 0.1 |
| CBS News/YouGov | 12 | -1.7 | -3.3 to -0.3 | -3.3 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 11 | -4.9 | -8.0 to -1.9 | -5.4 |
| Navigator Research (GSG/GBAO) | 10 | 1.5 | 0.3 to 2.6 | 0.5 |
| UMass Amherst/YouGov | 9 | 6.1 | 4.0 to 8.3 | 5.1 |
| Focaldata | 9 | -0.3 | -2.5 to 2.2 | -2.2 |
| GrayHouse | 9 | -4.3 | -5.7 to -2.8 | -4.4 |
| Cygnal | 8 | 1.0 | -1.4 to 3.3 | 0.6 |
| Trafalgar Group | 8 | -17.5 | -19.1 to -15.7 | -14.2 |
| The New York Times/Siena | 8 | 2.3 | -0.4 to 4.6 | 2.2 |
| Survey 160 | 7 | 8.0 | 5.0 to 10.6 | 5.6 |
| Civiqs | 7 | 1.4 | -1.1 to 4.0 | 0.3 |
| Talker Research | 7 | -9.9 | -10.7 to -9.0 | -9.1 |
| Change Research | 6 | -2.3 | -3.5 to -1.0 | -3.8 |
| Angus Reid Global | 6 | 5.5 | 2.5 to 8.2 | 3.4 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | 6 | -0.7 | -4.0 to 2.7 | -0.0 |
| co/efficient | 6 | -2.8 | -5.3 to 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Research Co. | 5 | -2.2 | -5.8 to 0.2 | -1.8 |
| Public Policy Polling | 5 | -3.8 | -9.2 to 1.6 | -0.8 |
| OnMessage | 4 | -2.0 | -4.3 to 0.3 | -3.2 |
| NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ | 4 | 2.8 | 2.0 to 4.3 | 2.7 |
| High Point University Survey Research Center | 4 | 1.8 | -3.0 to 6.5 | -0.6 |
| Public Religion Research Institute | 4 | 5.8 | 2.5 to 9.0 | 4.5 |
| Impact Research | 4 | -2.5 | -6.8 to 0.0 | -2.9 |
| Yale Youth Poll | 4 | -1.8 | -4.5 to 0.0 | -2.1 |
| Overton Insights | 4 | 4.8 | 1.3 to 8.5 | 2.8 |
| Targoz Market Research | 4 | 2.0 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 1.2 |
| RealClear Opinion Research | 4 | -5.5 | -8.0 to -2.0 | -3.6 |
| ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos | 4 | 3.0 | 1.3 to 5.8 | 2.6 |
| Blueprint Polling | 4 | 3.0 | 0.5 to 5.0 | 1.5 |
| SoCal Strategies | 3 | -8.7 | -9.0 to -8.0 | -6.2 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 3 | -0.3 | -1.0 to 0.0 | -1.8 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research | 3 | 4.3 | 0.0 to 7.0 | 3.4 |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | 3 | 3.3 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.8 |
| The Public Sentiment Institute | 3 | 4.7 | 3.0 to 7.0 | 0.7 |
| Justice Research Fund | 3 | 4.7 | 4.0 to 5.0 | 1.6 |
| Fabrizio Ward | 3 | -4.3 | -5.0 to -4.0 | -2.4 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 3 | -2.7 | -3.0 to -2.0 | 0.5 |