Fabrizio Ward
5 polls analyzed · population: 2 LV, 3 RV · declared affiliation: R
Election house effect
R+1.2
95%: R+4.0 to D+1.7 · 4 polls, 3 races
Approval house effect
+1.0 net approval
95%: −6.2 net approval to +7.9 net approval · 1 polls, 1 race
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency
Fewer than 5 polls, so not enough to judge how consistent its polls are.
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Trump job approval: consistency
Fewer than 5 polls, so not enough to judge how consistent its polls are.
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Head-to-head with other pollsters
Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 3 | 3.0 | 2.0 to 4.0 | -1.4 |
Trump job approval
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | 3 | 0.3 | -1.0 to 3.0 | -2.7 |
| YouGov | 3 | 4.3 | 4.0 to 5.0 | 2.4 |
All polls
| Ended | Race | Sample | Result | vs consensus | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 19, 2025 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 800 RV | −3.0 net approval | +2.4 | release |
| Oct 11, 2026 | 2026 Florida Governor | 1,200 LV | R+6.0 | R+2.0 | release |
| Aug 30, 2026 | 2026 New Hampshire Senate | 600 LV | R+1.0 | R+6.6 | release |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2026 Generic congressional ballot | 1,000 RV | D+7.0 | D+2.8 | release |
| May 19, 2025 | 2026 Generic congressional ballot | 800 RV | Even | R+2.3 | release |