2026 Florida Governor
Margin = David Jolly − Byron Donalds. 34 polls from 20 pollsters. Consensus as of Oct 7, 2026: R+4.0(95% band R+6.6 to R+1.3).
Polls and consensus
Individual poll (click to open source)Consensus, house effects removed95% band
How each pollster compares in this race
Average distance of each pollster's polls from the consensus of all other polls at the same time. The overall house effect is that pollster's lean across every race we track.
| Pollster | Polls here | Avg. vs consensus here | Overall house effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | 3 | R+6.6 | R+3.0 |
| Cherry Communications | 1 | R+5.8 | R+1.7 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 1 | R+4.2 | R+3.7 |
| AIF Center | 1 | R+4.2 | R+1.6 |
| University of North Florida | 3 | R+4.1 | R+1.0 |
| YouGov | 1 | R+4.0 | D+0.3 |
| Univision / YouGov | 1 | R+4.0 | Even |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1 | R+3.2 | R+1.1 |
| Echelon Insights | 1 | R+3.1 | R+0.8 |
| Targoz Market Research | 4 | R+2.5 | R+1.9 |
| Fabrizio Ward | 1 | R+2.0 | R+1.2 |
| Emerson College | 1 | R+1.7 | R+0.1 |
| Victory Insights | 1 | R+1.7 | R+1.6 |
| ActiVote | 1 | D+0.6 | D+0.4 |
| MDW Communications | 2 | D+2.2 | D+1.3 |
| Hart Research Associates | 1 | D+3.3 | D+1.2 |
| St. Pete Polls | 2 | D+3.5 | D+2.1 |
| Change Research | 5 | D+4.6 | D+0.8 |
| Bendixen & Amandi International | 1 | D+4.6 | D+1.9 |
| The Public Sentiment Institute | 2 | D+6.0 | D+1.5 |
All polls
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Result | House-effect adjusted | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 – Oct 19, 2026 | ActiVote | 400 LV | R+3.4 | R+3.7 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Oct 2, 2026 – Oct 15, 2026 | YouGov | 825 RV | R+8.0 | R+8.3 | release via votehub |
| Oct 2, 2026 – Oct 15, 2026 | Univision / YouGov | 825 RV | R+8.0 | R+8.0 | release via wikipedia |
| Oct 8, 2026 – Oct 11, 2026 | Fabrizio Ward R | 1,200 LV | R+6.0 | R+4.4 | release via wikipedia |
| Oct 8, 2026 – Oct 10, 2026 | Change Research D | 920 LV | Even | R+0.9 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Oct 4, 2026 – Oct 10, 2026 | MDW Communications | 2,351 LV | R+2.0 | R+2.8 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Oct 1, 2026 – Oct 9, 2026 | Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | 716 LV | R+11.0 | R+7.9 | release via wikipedia |
| Oct 5, 2026 – Oct 7, 2026 | St. Pete Polls | 836 LV | Even | R+2.0 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Sep 28, 2026 – Oct 4, 2026 | Targoz Market Research | 857 LV | R+10.0 | R+8.0 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Sep 28, 2026 – Oct 1, 2026 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 625 LV | R+7.0 | R+5.8 | release via wikipedia |
| Sep 25, 2026 – Sep 27, 2026 | Change Research D | 1,063 LV | D+2.0 | D+1.1 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Sep 14, 2026 – Sep 21, 2026 | Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | 830 LV | R+12.0 | R+8.9 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Sep 15, 2026 – Sep 17, 2026 | St. Pete Polls | 913 LV | R+0.1 | R+2.1 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Sep 7, 2026 – Sep 9, 2026 | Change Research D | 1,107 LV | D+3.0 | D+2.1 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Aug 10, 2026 – Aug 13, 2026 | Hart Research Associates D | 600 LV | D+1.0 | R+0.1 | release via wikipedia |
| Jul 20, 2026 – Jul 26, 2026 | Targoz Market Research | 1,338 RV | R+4.0 | R+2.1 | release via wikipedia |
| Jul 8, 2026 – Jul 17, 2026 | University of North Florida | 848 LV | R+5.0 | R+3.6 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Jul 9, 2026 – Jul 11, 2026 | Change Research D | 1,348 RV | Even | R+1.0 | release via wikipedia |
| May 13, 2026 – May 16, 2026 | Change Research D | 1,593 LV | D+4.0 | D+3.1 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| May 1, 2026 – May 9, 2026 | Cherry Communications R | 604 LV | R+8.0 | R+6.2 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Apr 27, 2026 – Apr 27, 2026 | The Public Sentiment Institute | 687 LV | Even | R+1.6 | release via votehub |
| Mar 15, 2026 – Apr 13, 2026 | Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | 848 LV | R+7.0 | R+3.9 | release via wikipedia |
| Apr 3, 2026 – Apr 9, 2026 | Echelon Insights | 406 LV | R+6.0 | R+5.3 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Mar 27, 2026 – Apr 3, 2026 | MDW Communications D | 1,834 LV | R+0.7 | R+2.7 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Mar 29, 2026 – Mar 31, 2026 | Emerson College | 1,125 LV | R+4.8 | R+4.6 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Feb 21, 2026 – Mar 2, 2026 | University of North Florida | 786 LV | R+6.0 | R+4.7 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Feb 20, 2026 – Feb 20, 2026 | The Public Sentiment Institute | 200 RV | D+6.5 | D+4.8 | release via votehub |
| Feb 13, 2026 – Feb 16, 2026 | Targoz Market Research | 1,129 LV | R+5.0 | R+3.0 | release via wikipedia |
| Oct 15, 2025 – Oct 25, 2025 | University of North Florida D | 728 LV | R+11.0 | R+10.8 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Sep 16, 2025 – Sep 18, 2025 | Targoz Market Research | 1,118 RV | R+4.0 | R+2.1 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Sep 7, 2025 – Sep 9, 2025 | Bendixen & Amandi International D | 631 LV | D+1.0 | R+0.8 | release via wikipedia |
| Aug 25, 2025 – Aug 27, 2025 | McLaughlin & Associates R | 800 LV | R+8.0 | R+3.3 | release via votehub |
| Aug 25, 2025 – Aug 27, 2025 | AIF Center R | 800 LV | R+8.0 | R+6.3 | release via wikipedia |
| Jun 7, 2025 – Jun 10, 2025 | Victory Insights R | 600 LV | R+5.3 | R+3.6 | release via votehub,wikipedia |