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The Public Sentiment Institute

7 polls analyzed · population: 6 LV, 1 RV

Election house effect
D+1.5
95%: R+1.5 to D+4.6 · 6 polls, 3 races
Approval house effect
−2.1 net approval
95%: −10.3 net approval to +6.1 net approval · 1 polls, 1 race

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency

Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 0.90).

Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall

Trump job approval: consistency

Fewer than 5 polls, so not enough to judge how consistent its polls are.

Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall

Head-to-head with other pollsters

Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)

Show as table
Compared withPairsAvg. gap95% intervalModel estimate
YouGov55.65.0 to 6.41.2
Morning Consult35.05.0 to 5.13.6

Trump job approval

Show as table
Compared withPairsAvg. gap95% intervalModel estimate
YouGov3-4.7-7.0 to -3.0-0.7
Morning Consult3-6.7-10.0 to -2.0-5.9

All polls

EndedRaceSampleResultvs consensusSource
Feb 28, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)249 LV−18.0 net approval−4.7release
Jun 16, 20262026 Virginia Senate996 LVD+18.0R+1.9release
Jun 13, 20262026 Generic congressional ballot1,023 LVD+9.0D+3.0release
May 5, 20262026 Virginia Senate1,047 LVD+26.0D+5.1release
Apr 27, 20262026 Florida Governor687 LVEvenD+2.3release
Feb 28, 20262026 Generic congressional ballot249 LVD+9.0D+4.2release
Feb 20, 20262026 Florida Governor200 RVD+6.5D+9.7release