Morning Consult
114 polls analyzed · population: 105 RV, 9 A
Election house effect
R+2.1
95%: R+2.8 to R+1.5 · 42 polls, 3 races
Approval house effect
+3.7 net approval
95%: +3.0 net approval to +4.4 net approval · 72 polls, 1 race
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency
Its polls cluster more tightly around its own lean than sample sizes allow (dispersion 0.56, p = 0.010). That can mean herding, or heavy weighting and modeling.
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Trump job approval: consistency
Its polls bounce around more than sample sizes explain (dispersion 2.23, p < 0.001).
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Head-to-head with other pollsters
Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 84 | -1.1 | -1.6 to -0.6 | -2.4 |
| Ipsos | 33 | 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.4 | -0.2 |
| Verasight | 29 | -4.1 | -4.9 to -3.2 | -4.0 |
| Quantus Insights | 24 | -1.3 | -2.1 to -0.3 | -0.5 |
| Cygnal | 22 | -1.6 | -2.4 to -0.8 | -1.4 |
| Echelon Insights | 21 | -1.3 | -2.0 to -0.6 | -1.3 |
| Big Data Poll | 21 | -3.4 | -4.6 to -2.2 | -2.5 |
| Emerson College | 19 | -3.1 | -4.6 to -1.5 | -2.0 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 16 | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 1.6 |
| RMG Research | 15 | 1.3 | -0.7 to 3.2 | 0.8 |
| HarrisX | 13 | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.5 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 11 | -2.1 | -4.1 to -0.4 | -2.9 |
| The Winston Group | 11 | -2.3 | -3.1 to -1.4 | -2.4 |
| CNN/SSRS | 10 | -2.0 | -3.1 to -0.9 | -3.0 |
| NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies) | 10 | -2.4 | -4.1 to -0.8 | -2.0 |
| Marquette Law School Poll | 10 | -2.7 | -5.2 to 0.1 | -3.2 |
| Focaldata | 10 | -2.2 | -3.4 to -0.8 | -2.5 |
| Quinnipiac University | 9 | -5.1 | -6.4 to -3.7 | -4.1 |
| Change Research | 8 | -0.4 | -1.1 to 0.5 | -2.9 |
| John Zogby Strategies | 8 | 0.3 | -2.3 to 3.3 | -2.6 |
| The Bullfinch Group | 7 | -6.0 | -8.4 to -3.7 | -4.9 |
| Impact Research | 6 | -1.0 | -3.0 to 1.5 | -2.6 |
| Survey 160 | 6 | -4.5 | -5.8 to -3.2 | -4.4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 5 | -4.8 | -6.0 to -3.2 | -2.5 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 5 | -0.4 | -2.2 to 1.6 | -1.5 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 5 | -1.8 | -3.6 to 0.0 | -1.9 |
| TIPP Insights | 5 | -0.2 | -1.8 to 1.4 | -2.3 |
| Marist Poll | 5 | -8.2 | -10.6 to -6.2 | -4.5 |
| GBAO | 4 | -4.3 | -4.8 to -4.0 | -4.1 |
| Yale Youth Poll | 4 | 2.5 | -0.8 to 5.3 | -0.6 |
| The New York Times/Siena | 4 | -4.5 | -6.3 to -3.0 | -1.9 |
| KFF | 4 | -5.5 | -6.0 to -5.0 | -3.5 |
| Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) | 4 | -2.5 | -4.3 to -1.3 | -2.8 |
| Pennsylvania State University McCourtney Institute for Democracy/YouGov | 4 | 0.0 | -1.0 to 1.3 | -2.0 |
| AtlasIntel | 4 | -12.8 | -14.1 to -11.5 | -5.6 |
| J.L. Partners | 4 | -3.3 | -4.5 to -2.3 | -2.2 |
| Research Co. | 4 | -2.5 | -4.0 to -1.1 | -1.6 |
| The Public Sentiment Institute | 3 | -5.0 | -5.1 to -5.0 | -3.6 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.0 | 0.4 |
| GrayHouse | 3 | -1.7 | -3.0 to 1.0 | -0.3 |
Trump job approval
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 193 | 5.0 | 4.6 to 5.5 | 5.2 |
| Ipsos | 90 | 9.3 | 8.5 to 10.1 | 8.4 |
| RMG Research | 85 | -4.6 | -5.6 to -3.6 | -4.2 |
| Quantus Insights | 59 | -1.4 | -2.2 to -0.4 | -0.2 |
| Global Strategy Group | 58 | 6.2 | 5.3 to 7.0 | 6.5 |
| Echelon Insights | 49 | 3.3 | 2.2 to 4.5 | 4.4 |
| Quinnipiac University | 47 | 9.0 | 8.2 to 10.0 | 9.1 |
| J.L. Partners | 44 | -2.5 | -4.1 to -1.0 | -1.5 |
| TIPP Insights | 42 | 1.4 | 0.1 to 2.6 | 0.3 |
| AP-NORC | 41 | 14.0 | 12.5 to 15.6 | 12.9 |
| Verasight | 40 | 9.6 | 8.6 to 10.7 | 7.8 |
| Emerson College | 38 | 0.3 | -1.1 to 1.6 | 0.4 |
| American Research Group | 35 | 16.7 | 14.3 to 18.7 | 16.4 |
| HarrisX | 35 | -3.1 | -4.3 to -1.9 | -2.6 |
| ActiVote | 34 | 2.0 | 1.0 to 3.0 | 1.9 |
| Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) | 34 | 5.5 | 4.3 to 6.8 | 5.4 |
| Big Data Poll | 27 | -0.6 | -2.1 to 0.9 | -1.8 |
| John Zogby Strategies | 27 | 0.1 | -1.2 to 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Marquette Law School Poll | 25 | 6.0 | 4.3 to 7.9 | 5.8 |
| The Bullfinch Group | 24 | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 4.1 |
| Gallup | 24 | 11.0 | 9.3 to 12.6 | 10.6 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 23 | -11.1 | -13.2 to -8.9 | -9.1 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 22 | 1.7 | 0.1 to 3.2 | 2.0 |
| NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies) | 21 | 3.0 | 1.4 to 4.6 | 2.6 |
| CNN/SSRS | 20 | 11.9 | 10.4 to 13.5 | 11.3 |
| Marist Poll | 20 | 8.5 | 7.0 to 9.9 | 7.7 |
| AtlasIntel | 18 | 5.9 | 3.7 to 8.4 | 5.8 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 15 | -3.0 | -5.2 to -0.8 | 0.2 |
| SurveyMonkey | 15 | 9.4 | 7.3 to 11.4 | 8.0 |
| Leger | 15 | 7.2 | 6.5 to 8.0 | 5.5 |
| Pew Research Center | 14 | 15.8 | 13.4 to 17.9 | 13.8 |
| Tavern Research | 13 | 6.2 | 4.1 to 8.7 | 4.0 |
| GBAO | 12 | 5.8 | 3.3 to 8.3 | 5.2 |
| Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage | 12 | -7.0 | -8.9 to -5.1 | -3.0 |
| The Winston Group | 12 | 9.6 | 7.8 to 11.4 | 8.1 |
| Navigator Research (GSG/GBAO) | 10 | 2.5 | 0.4 to 4.9 | 5.6 |
| GrayHouse | 10 | 0.3 | -1.4 to 2.5 | 0.8 |
| CBS News/YouGov | 10 | 0.1 | -2.1 to 2.5 | 1.9 |
| Trafalgar Group | 9 | -13.2 | -15.3 to -11.0 | -9.0 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 9 | -1.1 | -4.7 to 2.7 | -0.3 |
| Focaldata | 8 | 4.5 | 1.4 to 7.1 | 3.0 |
| UMass Amherst/YouGov | 8 | 10.8 | 7.0 to 14.3 | 10.3 |
| The New York Times/Siena | 8 | 7.3 | 5.5 to 9.0 | 7.4 |
| Civiqs | 7 | 3.7 | 1.7 to 5.6 | 5.5 |
| Talker Research | 7 | -3.7 | -5.7 to -1.9 | -3.9 |
| Survey 160 | 6 | 13.0 | 9.2 to 16.3 | 10.7 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | 6 | 3.9 | 0.5 to 8.0 | 5.1 |
| Change Research | 6 | 3.0 | 1.5 to 4.5 | 1.3 |
| co/efficient | 6 | 1.5 | -1.8 to 5.3 | 5.2 |
| Cygnal | 6 | 2.8 | 0.5 to 5.1 | 5.8 |
| Angus Reid Global | 6 | 12.0 | 8.7 to 14.7 | 8.6 |
| ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos | 5 | 6.6 | 5.6 to 7.8 | 7.8 |
| Research Co. | 5 | 7.1 | 4.8 to 9.3 | 3.4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 4 | 6.0 | 1.5 to 10.5 | 4.4 |
| Blueprint Polling | 4 | 4.5 | 4.0 to 5.5 | 6.7 |
| OnMessage | 4 | -2.0 | -5.3 to 0.0 | 1.9 |
| NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ | 4 | 7.0 | 5.5 to 8.5 | 7.8 |
| RealClear Opinion Research | 4 | 0.5 | -4.8 to 4.2 | 1.5 |
| Overton Insights | 4 | 7.8 | 1.5 to 14.0 | 7.9 |
| Targoz Market Research | 4 | 3.5 | 1.5 to 6.5 | 6.3 |
| Impact Research | 4 | 3.0 | 1.8 to 4.0 | 2.3 |
| High Point University Survey Research Center | 4 | 7.8 | 3.5 to 11.5 | 4.5 |
| Public Religion Research Institute | 4 | 9.8 | 9.0 to 10.5 | 9.7 |
| SoCal Strategies | 3 | -0.1 | -1.0 to 1.7 | -1.1 |
| Yale Youth Poll | 3 | 3.7 | 3.0 to 5.0 | 3.0 |
| Data for Progress | 3 | 1.0 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Fabrizio Ward | 3 | -0.3 | -3.0 to 1.0 | 2.7 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research | 3 | 11.3 | 11.0 to 12.0 | 8.5 |
| North Star Opinion Research | 3 | 3.0 | 1.0 to 5.0 | 5.7 |
| The Public Sentiment Institute | 3 | 6.7 | 2.0 to 10.0 | 5.9 |