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Trafalgar Group

26 polls analyzed · population: 26 LV · declared affiliation: R

Election house effect
R+1.5
95%: R+3.1 to Even · 22 polls, 13 races
Approval house effect
+12.8 net approval
95%: +8.8 net approval to +16.5 net approval · 4 polls, 1 race

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency

Its polls bounce around more than sample sizes explain (dispersion 5.80, p < 0.001).

Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall

Trump job approval: consistency

Fewer than 5 polls, so not enough to judge how consistent its polls are.

Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall

Head-to-head with other pollsters

Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)

Show as table
Compared withPairsAvg. gap95% intervalModel estimate
YouGov7-2.9-4.3 to -1.4-1.8
co/efficient60.6-0.8 to 1.82.1
Marist Poll6-4.7-7.3 to -2.0-3.9
InsiderAdvantage6-0.8-2.6 to 1.5-0.6
Quantus Insights68.40.2 to 22.90.1
Emerson College4-2.6-4.7 to -0.5-1.4
Wedgewood Polls3-2.7-4.0 to -2.0-1.5
Rasmussen Reports3-1.7-3.0 to 0.0-1.3
Washington Post/George Mason University3-4.4-6.8 to -1.5-3.3
ActiVote3-2.3-6.0 to 0.0-1.9

Trump job approval

Show as table
Compared withPairsAvg. gap95% intervalModel estimate
Morning Consult913.211.0 to 15.39.0
YouGov817.515.7 to 19.114.2
J.L. Partners59.26.0 to 12.47.5
Ipsos523.521.9 to 25.117.5
RMG Research510.07.8 to 11.74.8
Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.)316.815.5 to 17.914.4
Marist Poll319.118.5 to 20.016.7
TIPP Insights312.510.9 to 14.09.4
InsiderAdvantage3-1.7-4.0 to -0.4-0.1
John Zogby Strategies39.24.5 to 17.210.3
Quantus Insights311.810.5 to 12.98.8

All polls

EndedRaceSampleResultvs consensusSource
Mar 3, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,098 LV+1.5 net approval+15.6release
Feb 25, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,084 LV+3.0 net approval+16.3release
Dec 27, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,098 LV+5.0 net approval+15.5release
Jun 20, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,085 LV+9.9 net approval+17.1release
Oct 18, 20262026 South Carolina Senate1,095 LVR+3.0R+1.3release
Oct 15, 20262026 Minnesota Senate1,079 LVD+3.0R+1.4release
Oct 15, 20262026 Iowa Senate1,094 LVR+2.0R+2.8release
Oct 10, 20262026 North Carolina Senate1,091 LVD+8.0R+2.4release
Oct 9, 20262026 Georgia Senate1,101 LVD+8.0R+1.2release
Oct 8, 20262026 Texas Senate1,086 LVD+3.0D+0.7release
Oct 1, 20262026 Maine Senate1,091 LVEvenR+2.1release
Oct 1, 20262026 Kansas Senate1,095 LVEvenR+1.2release
Sep 30, 20262026 Michigan Senate1,085 LVD+2.0R+0.6release
Sep 27, 20262026 New Hampshire Senate1,082 LVD+6.0R+1.0release
Sep 25, 20262026 South Carolina Senate1,087 LVR+1.0D+0.7release
Sep 24, 20262026 Alaska Senate1,079 LVD+43.0D+37.5release
Sep 18, 20262026 Iowa Senate1,089 LVR+2.0R+3.4release
Sep 17, 20262026 Texas Senate1,079 LVD+1.0R+1.7release
Sep 16, 20262026 Ohio Senate1,085 LVD+3.0R+0.9release
Sep 12, 20262026 Georgia Senate1,091 LVD+6.0R+2.9release
Sep 10, 20262026 North Carolina Senate1,084 LVD+6.0R+3.8release
Sep 9, 20262026 Michigan Senate1,079 LVD+1.5R+1.0release
Nov 2, 20252025 Virginia Governor1,057 LVD+6.5R+2.5release
Oct 10, 20252025 Virginia Governor1,066 LVD+2.6R+5.7release
Oct 1, 20252025 Virginia Governor1,034 LVD+5.2R+3.2release
Apr 27, 20252026 Georgia Senate1,426 LVD+4.7R+0.1release