← All pollsters

Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.)

42 polls analyzed · population: 9 LV, 33 RV

Election house effect
D+0.6
95%: R+0.9 to D+2.1 · 28 polls, 15 races
Approval house effect
−1.6 net approval
95%: −3.6 net approval to +0.4 net approval · 14 polls, 1 race

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency

Its polls cluster more tightly around its own lean than sample sizes allow (dispersion 0.48, p = 0.010). That can mean herding, or heavy weighting and modeling.

Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall

Trump job approval: consistency

Its polls cluster more tightly around its own lean than sample sizes allow (dispersion 0.27, p < 0.001). That can mean herding, or heavy weighting and modeling.

Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall

Head-to-head with other pollsters

Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)

Show as table
Compared withPairsAvg. gap95% intervalModel estimate
YouGov11-0.2-2.0 to 1.60.4
The New York Times/Siena80.4-3.3 to 4.10.8
Quantus Insights52.40.4 to 4.42.2
Wedgewood Polls41.8-1.3 to 4.50.6
Morning Consult42.51.3 to 4.32.8
Tulchin Research40.5-3.0 to 4.0-0.9
Emerson College41.8-2.8 to 6.30.7
Guidant Polling & Strategy4-0.8-3.5 to 2.30.7
Verasight4-2.3-3.5 to -1.3-1.2
Big Data Poll4-0.5-3.0 to 1.50.3
GBAO3-5.3-10.0 to -3.0-1.3
TIPP Insights3-5.0-11.0 to 3.00.5
Rasmussen Reports3-0.7-2.0 to 1.00.8
Echelon Insights32.3-1.0 to 7.01.4
Suffolk University3-0.7-3.0 to 3.0-0.5
co/efficient34.31.0 to 6.04.2
John Zogby Strategies3-1.2-4.6 to 1.00.2
McLaughlin & Associates34.51.0 to 8.44.3

Trump job approval

Show as table
Compared withPairsAvg. gap95% intervalModel estimate
YouGov36-0.0-1.1 to 1.1-0.2
Morning Consult34-5.5-6.8 to -4.3-5.4
Ipsos204.53.0 to 5.93.1
RMG Research17-9.4-11.0 to -8.0-9.6
Quantus Insights13-5.4-6.3 to -4.5-5.5
AP-NORC128.45.6 to 11.27.6
J.L. Partners12-8.0-10.8 to -5.3-6.9
Echelon Insights12-2.0-3.4 to -0.5-0.9
American Research Group1111.37.9 to 14.011.0
Quinnipiac University103.71.3 to 6.03.7
Verasight103.31.0 to 5.32.5
Global Strategy Group101.1-0.4 to 2.51.1
Emerson College9-5.6-7.6 to -3.5-5.0
ActiVote8-2.7-4.5 to -1.1-3.5
Marquette Law School Poll6-0.7-4.7 to 2.30.5
Gallup69.37.8 to 11.25.2
John Zogby Strategies6-8.3-10.5 to -6.2-4.1
HarrisX5-10.0-13.8 to -6.0-7.9
McLaughlin & Associates5-11.4-15.4 to -6.8-5.2
AtlasIntel51.3-2.5 to 5.10.4
Big Data Poll5-7.5-10.0 to -5.1-7.2
Clarity Campaign Labs5-2.2-4.0 to -0.4-3.4
The Bullfinch Group5-1.6-6.0 to 3.0-1.2
Marist Poll52.40.6 to 4.22.3
Tavern Research5-2.0-3.8 to 0.2-1.4
NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies)4-1.3-4.5 to 2.0-2.7
GBAO40.8-2.5 to 3.8-0.1
InsiderAdvantage4-16.1-19.6 to -12.5-14.5
Angus Reid Global37.06.0 to 8.03.2
Trafalgar Group3-16.8-17.9 to -15.5-14.4
TIPP Insights3-1.7-3.0 to -1.0-5.0
SurveyMonkey32.3-1.0 to 4.02.6
The Winston Group33.33.0 to 4.02.7

All polls

EndedRaceSampleResultvs consensusSource
Oct 12, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,202 RV−28.0 net approval−1.7release
Jun 15, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,002 RV−21.0 net approval−3.8release
May 18, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,002 RV−22.0 net approval−4.5release
Apr 20, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,001 RV−16.0 net approval+1.1release
Mar 23, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,001 RV−18.0 net approval−2.5release
Mar 2, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,004 RV−14.0 net approval−0.7release
Jan 26, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,005 RV−12.0 net approval+0.6release
Dec 15, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,001 RV−12.0 net approval−1.4release
Nov 17, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,005 RV−17.0 net approval−4.2release
Sep 9, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,004 RV−8.0 net approval−0.6release
Jul 21, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 RV−8.0 net approval+0.3release
Jun 16, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,003 RV−8.0 net approval−1.0release
Apr 21, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,104 RV−11.0 net approval−4.8release
Mar 17, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)994 RV−2.0 net approval−0.2release
Sep 28, 20262026 Texas Senate881 LVD+2.0R+0.6release
Sep 28, 20262026 Michigan Senate1,028 LVD+1.0R+1.8release
Sep 28, 20262026 Iowa Senate1,008 LVD+2.0D+0.7release
Sep 28, 20262026 Texas Governor881 LVR+5.0R+2.4release
Sep 28, 20262026 Michigan Governor1,028 LVD+9.0D+2.5release
Sep 28, 20262026 Iowa Governor1,008 LVD+9.0D+1.6release
Aug 10, 20262026 Ohio Senate1,008 RVD+8.0D+4.2release
Aug 10, 20262026 Michigan Senate1,006 RVR+4.0R+5.5release
Aug 10, 20262026 Maine Senate1,000 RVD+2.0R+0.6release
Aug 10, 20262026 Ohio Governor1,008 RVR+2.0R+3.5release
Aug 10, 20262026 Michigan Governor1,006 RVD+5.0R+2.2release
Aug 10, 20262026 Maine Governor1,000 RVD+11.0R+0.7release
Jul 27, 20262026 Texas Senate1,006 RVD+3.0D+0.5release
Jul 27, 20262026 North Carolina Senate1,005 RVD+9.0D+0.2release
Jul 27, 20262026 Texas Governor1,006 RVR+1.0D+3.0release
Jun 27, 20262026 Iowa Senate1,003 RVD+4.0D+3.7release
Jun 27, 20262026 Georgia Senate1,002 RVD+13.0D+5.0release
Jun 27, 20262026 Maine Governor1,003 RVD+11.0R+1.1release
Jun 27, 20262026 Iowa Governor1,003 RVD+9.0D+2.7release
Jun 27, 20262026 Georgia Governor1,002 RVD+5.0D+2.2release
Jun 1, 20262026 Ohio Senate1,015 RVD+8.0D+5.6release
Jun 1, 20262026 Ohio Governor1,015 RVD+1.0R+0.1release
Apr 20, 20262026 Generic congressional ballot1,001 RVD+5.0R+0.6release
Jan 26, 20262026 Generic congressional ballot1,005 RVD+6.0D+1.5release
Oct 28, 20252025 New Jersey Governor956 LVD+7.0D+1.7release
Oct 14, 20252025 New Jersey Governor869 LVD+5.0R+0.4release
Sep 28, 20252025 New Jersey Governor822 LVD+8.0D+2.5release
Apr 21, 20252026 Generic congressional ballot1,104 RVD+7.0D+4.6release