The New York Times/Siena
35 polls analyzed · population: 8 RV, 27 LV
Election house effect
R+0.2
95%: R+1.8 to D+1.4 · 31 polls, 19 races
Approval house effect
−3.6 net approval
95%: −6.7 net approval to −0.5 net approval · 4 polls, 1 race
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency
Its polls cluster more tightly around its own lean than sample sizes allow (dispersion 0.56, p = 0.020). That can mean herding, or heavy weighting and modeling.
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Trump job approval: consistency
Fewer than 5 polls, so not enough to judge how consistent its polls are.
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Head-to-head with other pollsters
Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 12 | 0.7 | -0.8 to 2.5 | -0.5 |
| Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) | 8 | -0.4 | -4.1 to 3.3 | -0.8 |
| Suffolk University | 6 | -4.2 | -7.7 to -1.3 | -1.4 |
| CNN/SSRS | 5 | -0.8 | -2.8 to 1.2 | -1.0 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 5 | 0.7 | -2.4 to 3.8 | -0.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 5 | -0.6 | -2.8 to 1.6 | 0.7 |
| Marist Poll | 5 | -3.2 | -5.4 to -1.2 | -2.6 |
| Quantus Insights | 5 | 1.3 | -1.5 to 4.6 | 1.4 |
| Big Data Poll | 5 | 3.3 | 0.5 to 6.0 | -0.5 |
| Morning Consult | 4 | 4.5 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 1.9 |
| Guidant Polling & Strategy | 4 | 2.1 | 0.0 to 4.3 | -0.1 |
| Cygnal | 4 | -0.4 | -2.5 to 1.4 | 0.6 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 4 | -3.0 | -7.0 to 2.0 | 0.0 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | 4 | -3.8 | -6.0 to -1.5 | -1.0 |
| Ipsos | 3 | 5.6 | 3.0 to 9.4 | 1.8 |
| Emerson College | 3 | -0.2 | -1.7 to 2.5 | -0.1 |
| Verasight | 3 | -2.2 | -3.0 to -0.6 | -2.0 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 3 | 6.3 | 4.4 to 8.0 | 3.5 |
Trump job approval
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 8 | -2.3 | -4.6 to 0.4 | -2.2 |
| Morning Consult | 8 | -7.3 | -9.0 to -5.5 | -7.4 |
| Ipsos | 5 | 1.0 | -0.6 to 3.0 | 1.1 |
| RMG Research | 4 | -11.3 | -13.0 to -8.5 | -11.6 |
| American Research Group | 4 | 8.0 | 1.5 to 12.0 | 9.0 |
| Verasight | 3 | 1.0 | -1.0 to 2.0 | 0.5 |
| Quantus Insights | 3 | -9.1 | -9.9 to -7.9 | -7.5 |
| Global Strategy Group | 3 | -2.0 | -2.0 to -2.0 | -0.9 |
| Quinnipiac University | 3 | 1.7 | -2.0 to 5.0 | 1.7 |
| ActiVote | 3 | -6.7 | -7.3 to -5.9 | -5.5 |
| AP-NORC | 3 | 4.7 | 3.0 to 8.0 | 5.6 |
All polls
| Ended | Race | Sample | Result | vs consensus | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2026 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 1,507 RV | −22.0 net approval | −4.5 | release |
| Jan 17, 2026 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 1,625 RV | −16.0 net approval | −4.0 | release |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 1,313 RV | −11.0 net approval | −2.6 | release |
| Apr 24, 2025 | Donald Trump job approval (2025–) | 913 RV | −12.0 net approval | −5.0 | release |
| Oct 1, 2026 | 2026 Ohio Senate | 616 LV | D+3.0 | R+0.7 | release |
| Oct 1, 2026 | 2026 Iowa Senate | 606 LV | R+1.0 | R+2.3 | release |
| Oct 1, 2026 | 2026 Alaska Senate | 504 LV | D+7.0 | D+1.4 | release |
| Oct 1, 2026 | 2026 Ohio Governor | 616 LV | D+4.0 | D+0.6 | release |
| Oct 1, 2026 | 2026 Iowa Governor | 606 LV | D+11.0 | D+3.6 | release |
| Oct 1, 2026 | 2026 Alaska Governor | 504 LV | D+20.0 | D+6.4 | release |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 2026 Texas Senate | 615 LV | D+6.0 | D+3.4 | release |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 2026 Kansas Senate | 605 LV | Even | R+0.9 | release |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 2026 Texas Governor | 605 LV | D+3.0 | D+5.6 | release |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 2026 Kansas Governor | 605 LV | R+5.0 | R+1.9 | release |
| Sep 22, 2026 | 2026 New Hampshire Senate | 613 LV | D+5.0 | R+1.9 | release |
| Sep 22, 2026 | 2026 Michigan Senate | 605 LV | D+5.0 | D+2.3 | release |
| Sep 22, 2026 | 2026 Maine Senate | 619 LV | R+3.0 | R+5.3 | release |
| Sep 22, 2026 | 2026 Pennsylvania Governor | 615 LV | D+20.0 | R+2.5 | release |
| Sep 22, 2026 | 2026 New Hampshire Governor | 613 LV | R+11.0 | R+1.9 | release |
| Sep 22, 2026 | 2026 Michigan Governor | 605 LV | D+5.0 | R+1.7 | release |
| Sep 22, 2026 | 2026 Maine Governor | 619 LV | D+13.0 | D+1.8 | release |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 2026 Pennsylvania Governor | 760 LV | D+16.0 | R+6.3 | release |
| Jun 29, 2026 | 2026 Alaska Senate | 593 LV | R+2.0 | R+5.9 | release |
| Jun 28, 2026 | 2026 Ohio Senate | 601 LV | R+3.0 | R+5.5 | release |
| Jun 28, 2026 | 2026 Ohio Governor | 601 LV | Even | R+1.2 | release |
| Jun 27, 2026 | 2026 Texas Senate | 656 LV | Even | R+1.8 | release |
| Jun 27, 2026 | 2026 North Carolina Senate | 601 LV | D+7.0 | R+2.2 | release |
| Jun 27, 2026 | 2026 Iowa Senate | 600 LV | R+2.0 | R+2.3 | release |
| Jun 27, 2026 | 2026 Texas Governor | 656 LV | R+7.0 | R+1.7 | release |
| Jun 27, 2026 | 2026 Iowa Governor | 600 LV | D+1.0 | R+5.3 | release |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 2026 Maine Governor | 608 LV | D+15.0 | D+2.9 | release |
| May 15, 2026 | 2026 Generic congressional ballot | 1,507 RV | D+10.4 | D+4.2 | release |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2026 Generic congressional ballot | 1,625 RV | D+5.0 | D+0.6 | release |
| Sep 27, 2025 | 2026 Generic congressional ballot | 1,313 RV | D+2.0 | R+0.7 | release |
| Apr 24, 2025 | 2026 Generic congressional ballot | 913 RV | D+3.0 | D+0.6 | release |