2026 Pennsylvania Governor
Margin = Josh Shapiro − Stacy Garrity. 24 polls from 9 pollsters. Consensus as of Oct 7, 2026: D+22.8(95% band D+19.1 to D+26.5).
Polls and consensus
Individual poll (click to open source)Consensus, house effects removed95% band
How each pollster compares in this race
Average distance of each pollster's polls from the consensus of all other polls at the same time. The overall house effect is that pollster's lean across every race we track.
| Pollster | Polls here | Avg. vs consensus here | Overall house effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Public Affairs | 1 | R+14.2 | R+2.5 |
| The New York Times/Siena | 2 | R+4.4 | R+0.2 |
| Z to A Research | 1 | R+3.6 | D+0.6 |
| MAD Global Strategy | 1 | R+3.4 | R+0.1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 4 | R+1.4 | D+1.9 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research | 3 | D+1.0 | D+0.3 |
| Franklin & Marshall College | 3 | D+1.9 | D+0.8 |
| Bravo Group | 4 | D+5.2 | D+2.4 |
| PennLive | 5 | D+5.7 | D+2.9 |
All polls
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Result | House-effect adjusted | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 – Oct 11, 2026 | PennLive | 628 RV | D+30.0 | D+27.1 | release via wikipedia |
| Oct 1, 2026 – Oct 5, 2026 | Quinnipiac University | 1,159 LV | D+25.0 | D+23.2 | release via wikipedia |
| Sep 28, 2026 – Oct 1, 2026 | Z to A Research D | 630 LV | D+19.0 | D+18.5 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Sep 22, 2026 – Sep 30, 2026 | Susquehanna Polling & Research R | 700 LV | D+21.0 | D+20.8 | release via wikipedia |
| Sep 16, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026 | Bravo Group | 624 RV | D+27.0 | D+24.6 | release via votehub |
| Sep 16, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026 | PennLive | 624 RV | D+27.0 | D+24.1 | release via wikipedia |
| Sep 15, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026 | The New York Times/Siena | 615 LV | D+20.0 | D+20.3 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Aug 17, 2026 – Aug 23, 2026 | Franklin & Marshall College | 501 RV | D+25.0 | D+24.2 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Aug 18, 2026 – Aug 22, 2026 | PennLive | 711 RV | D+31.0 | D+28.1 | release via wikipedia |
| Aug 18, 2026 – Aug 22, 2026 | Bravo Group | 711 LV | D+31.0 | D+28.7 | release via votehub |
| Aug 17, 2026 – Aug 21, 2026 | The New York Times/Siena | 760 LV | D+16.0 | D+16.3 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Jul 26, 2026 – Jul 30, 2026 | National Public Affairs R | 600 LV | D+7.0 | D+10.0 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Jul 17, 2026 – Jul 24, 2026 | Bravo Group | 630 LV | D+25.0 | D+22.7 | release via votehub |
| Jul 9, 2026 – Jul 13, 2026 | Quinnipiac University | 895 RV | D+13.0 | D+11.1 | release via wikipedia |
| Jun 18, 2026 – Jun 25, 2026 | PennLive | 644 RV | D+25.0 | D+22.1 | release via wikipedia |
| Jun 8, 2026 – Jun 14, 2026 | Franklin & Marshall College | 546 RV | D+22.0 | D+21.2 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Jun 9, 2026 – Jun 11, 2026 | MAD Global Strategy | 600 LV | D+17.0 | D+17.8 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| May 20, 2026 – May 24, 2026 | PennLive | 683 LV | D+24.0 | D+21.2 | release via wikipedia |
| May 20, 2026 – May 24, 2026 | Bravo Group | 684 LV | D+24.0 | D+21.7 | release via votehub |
| Mar 18, 2026 – Mar 29, 2026 | Susquehanna Polling & Research R | 700 LV | D+22.0 | D+21.8 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Feb 18, 2026 – Mar 1, 2026 | Franklin & Marshall College | 834 RV | D+20.0 | D+19.2 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Feb 19, 2026 – Feb 23, 2026 | Quinnipiac University | 836 RV | D+18.0 | D+16.1 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Sep 25, 2025 – Sep 29, 2025 | Quinnipiac University | 1,579 RV | D+16.0 | D+14.1 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Sep 22, 2025 – Sep 28, 2025 | Susquehanna Polling & Research R | 700 LV | D+18.0 | D+17.8 | release via votehub,wikipedia |