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National Public Affairs

7 polls analyzed · population: 7 LV

Election house effect
R+2.5
95%: R+5.0 to D+0.2 · 7 polls, 7 races

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency

Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 1.06).

Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall

Head-to-head with other pollsters

Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)

Show as table
Compared withPairsAvg. gap95% intervalModel estimate
co/efficient41.00.3 to 1.81.1
YouGov4-3.0-4.0 to -1.8-2.7

All polls

EndedRaceSampleResultvs consensusSource
Oct 12, 20262026 New Hampshire Senate600 LVD+5.0R+2.2release
Oct 12, 20262026 Iowa Senate678 LVR+3.0R+3.9release
Oct 12, 20262026 New Hampshire Governor600 LVR+16.0R+6.8release
Oct 12, 20262026 Iowa Governor678 LVD+5.0R+1.9release
Oct 5, 20262026 Nebraska Senate800 LVR+3.0R+3.3release
Oct 5, 20262026 Nebraska Governor800 LVR+4.0R+2.3release
Jul 30, 20262026 Pennsylvania Governor600 LVD+7.0R+14.2release