2026 New Hampshire Governor
Margin = Cinde Warmington − Kelly Ayotte. 12 polls from 6 pollsters. Consensus as of Oct 7, 2026: R+9.2(95% band R+12.9 to R+5.5).
Polls and consensus
Individual poll (click to open source)Consensus, house effects removed95% band
How each pollster compares in this race
Average distance of each pollster's polls from the consensus of all other polls at the same time. The overall house effect is that pollster's lean across every race we track.
| Pollster | Polls here | Avg. vs consensus here | Overall house effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient | 1 | R+11.7 | R+3.6 |
| National Public Affairs | 1 | R+6.8 | R+2.5 |
| The New York Times/Siena | 1 | R+1.9 | R+0.2 |
| Saint Anselm College Survey Center | 4 | Even | Even |
| YouGov | 1 | D+0.1 | D+0.3 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 4 | D+1.4 | R+0.2 |
All polls
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Result | House-effect adjusted | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 – Oct 12, 2026 | National Public Affairs R | 600 LV | R+16.0 | R+13.0 | release via wikipedia |
| Sep 28, 2026 – Oct 5, 2026 | YouGov | 1,520 LV | R+9.0 | R+9.2 | release via wikipedia |
| Sep 28, 2026 – Sep 29, 2026 | Saint Anselm College Survey Center | 1,042 LV | R+7.0 | R+6.9 | release via wikipedia |
| Sep 15, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026 | The New York Times/Siena | 613 LV | R+11.0 | R+10.7 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Sep 17, 2026 – Sep 21, 2026 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 1,418 LV | R+4.0 | R+3.6 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Sep 9, 2026 – Sep 11, 2026 | co/efficient R | 958 LV | R+21.0 | R+17.3 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Aug 20, 2026 – Aug 24, 2026 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 1,878 LV | R+10.0 | R+9.7 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Aug 17, 2026 – Aug 18, 2026 | Saint Anselm College Survey Center | 1,411 LV | R+11.0 | R+10.9 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Jun 24, 2026 – Jun 25, 2026 | Saint Anselm College Survey Center | 1,614 RV | R+8.0 | R+8.0 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Jun 18, 2026 – Jun 23, 2026 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2,232 LV | R+5.0 | R+4.7 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Apr 17, 2026 – Apr 21, 2026 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 1,117 LV | R+8.0 | R+7.7 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Mar 16, 2026 – Mar 18, 2026 | Saint Anselm College Survey Center | 1,491 RV | R+7.0 | R+7.0 | release via votehub,wikipedia |