2026 Kansas Senate
Margin = Adam Hamilton − Roger Marshall. 14 polls from 11 pollsters. Consensus as of Oct 14, 2026: D+1.0(95% band R+2.3 to D+4.1).
Polls and consensus
Individual poll (click to open source)Consensus, house effects removed95% band
How each pollster compares in this race
Average distance of each pollster's polls from the consensus of all other polls at the same time. The overall house effect is that pollster's lean across every race we track.
| Pollster | Polls here | Avg. vs consensus here | Overall house effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient | 1 | R+5.3 | R+3.6 |
| Tavern Research | 1 | R+2.1 | D+2.7 |
| Trafalgar Group | 1 | R+1.2 | R+1.5 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2 | R+1.1 | R+0.9 |
| The New York Times/Siena | 1 | R+0.9 | R+0.2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 1 | R+0.1 | D+0.4 |
| GBAO | 2 | D+1.0 | D+1.9 |
| Wedgewood Polls | 1 | D+1.1 | Even |
| Emerson College | 1 | D+1.3 | R+0.1 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2 | D+1.5 | D+0.7 |
| YouGov | 1 | D+1.8 | D+0.3 |
All polls
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Result | House-effect adjusted | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 – Oct 14, 2026 | InsiderAdvantage | 1,200 LV | R+1.0 | R+1.1 | release via votehub |
| Oct 9, 2026 – Oct 10, 2026 | InsiderAdvantage R | 1,200 LV | D+1.0 | D+2.2 | release via wikipedia |
| Sep 30, 2026 – Oct 4, 2026 | GBAO D | 600 LV | D+5.0 | D+2.9 | release via wikipedia |
| Sep 24, 2026 – Oct 4, 2026 | YouGov | 2,255 LV | D+3.0 | D+2.9 | release via wikipedia |
| Sep 29, 2026 – Oct 1, 2026 | Trafalgar Group R | 1,095 LV | Even | D+1.7 | release via wikipedia |
| Sep 22, 2026 – Sep 30, 2026 | The New York Times/Siena | 605 LV | Even | D+0.3 | release via wikipedia |
| Sep 22, 2026 – Sep 24, 2026 | Wedgewood Polls | 500 LV | D+2.0 | D+2.1 | release via votehub |
| Sep 15, 2026 – Sep 16, 2026 | Emerson College | 750 LV | D+2.0 | D+2.2 | release via votehub,wikipedia |
| Sep 13, 2026 – Sep 16, 2026 | Global Strategy Group D | 800 LV | D+2.0 | D+1.4 | release via wikipedia |
| Sep 8, 2026 – Sep 10, 2026 | co/efficient R | 915 LV | R+5.0 | R+1.3 | release via wikipedia |
| Aug 12, 2026 – Aug 16, 2026 | Global Strategy Group D | 800 LV | D+1.0 | D+0.4 | release via wikipedia |
| Aug 7, 2026 – Aug 8, 2026 | Public Policy Polling D | 569 LV | R+1.0 | R+1.4 | release via wikipedia |
| Jul 8, 2026 – Jul 13, 2026 | GBAO D | 600 LV | R+4.0 | R+6.1 | release via wikipedia |
| Jan 26, 2026 – Jan 28, 2026 | Tavern Research D | 1,013 LV | R+8.0 | R+10.9 | release via votehub,wikipedia |