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GBAO

20 polls analyzed · population: 8 RV, 12 LV · declared affiliation: D

Election house effect
D+1.9
95%: D+0.1 to D+3.7 · 15 polls, 10 races
Approval house effect
−1.5 net approval
95%: −4.2 net approval to +1.3 net approval · 5 polls, 1 race

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency

Its polls cluster more tightly around its own lean than sample sizes allow (dispersion 0.25, p < 0.001). That can mean herding, or heavy weighting and modeling.

Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall

Trump job approval: consistency

Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 0.40).

Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall

Head-to-head with other pollsters

Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)

Show as table
Compared withPairsAvg. gap95% intervalModel estimate
YouGov82.41.3 to 3.61.7
Morning Consult44.34.0 to 4.84.1
Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.)35.33.0 to 10.01.3
Echelon Insights32.32.0 to 3.02.8
InsiderAdvantage32.31.0 to 4.02.9

Trump job approval

Show as table
Compared withPairsAvg. gap95% intervalModel estimate
YouGov13-1.1-2.6 to 0.2-0.1
Morning Consult12-5.8-8.3 to -3.3-5.2
ActiVote5-1.7-3.5 to -0.1-3.3
RMG Research5-10.2-12.8 to -7.4-9.4
Ipsos54.83.2 to 7.03.2
J.L. Partners4-5.8-8.5 to -2.8-6.8
AP-NORC411.39.0 to 12.87.7
Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.)4-0.8-3.8 to 2.50.1
American Research Group49.85.0 to 13.311.2
Quantus Insights4-5.4-7.8 to -2.6-5.4
Echelon Insights4-3.3-6.5 to 0.3-0.8
Verasight33.01.0 to 5.02.6
Big Data Poll3-8.2-9.6 to -7.0-7.0
Marquette Law School Poll3-1.0-3.0 to 2.00.6
SurveyMonkey35.33.0 to 8.02.7
Global Strategy Group3-0.7-3.0 to 1.01.2
Quinnipiac University31.7-4.0 to 5.03.9

All polls

EndedRaceSampleResultvs consensusSource
Apr 15, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)2,000 RV−21.0 net approval−4.5release
Feb 9, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,000 RV−14.0 net approval−0.8release
Nov 26, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)2,000 RV−13.0 net approval−0.8release
Jul 21, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)2,000 RV−10.0 net approval−1.7release
Mar 23, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)2,000 RV−2.0 net approval+0.1release
Oct 15, 20262026 Georgia Governor2,000 RVR+1.0D+0.1release
Oct 8, 20262026 Texas Governor800 LVD+2.0D+4.5release
Oct 4, 20262026 Kansas Senate600 LVD+5.0D+3.8release
Oct 4, 20262026 Oregon Governor800 LVD+4.0D+3.0release
Sep 22, 20262026 Michigan Senate800 LVD+4.0D+1.2release
Sep 8, 20262026 Nebraska Senate800 LVD+1.0D+0.6release
Aug 10, 20262026 Michigan Senate800 LVD+6.0D+4.5release
Aug 9, 20262026 Texas Governor1,000 LVR+1.0D+2.9release
Aug 3, 20262026 Wisconsin Governor800 LVD+3.0R+0.3release
Jul 13, 20262026 Kansas Senate600 LVR+4.0R+1.9release
Apr 15, 20262026 Generic congressional ballot2,000 RVD+8.0D+2.2release
Mar 16, 20262026 Iowa Senate1,200 LVR+4.0R+0.7release
Mar 16, 20262026 Iowa Governor1,200 LVD+8.0D+2.1release
Feb 3, 20262026 Texas Governor1,000 LVR+3.0D+4.0release
Nov 26, 20252026 Generic congressional ballot2,000 RVD+6.0D+2.0release