Echelon Insights
51 polls analyzed · population: 49 LV, 2 RV
Election house effect
R+0.8
95%: R+2.2 to D+0.6 · 29 polls, 11 races
Approval house effect
−0.7 net approval
95%: −2.6 net approval to +1.1 net approval · 22 polls, 1 race
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency
Its polls cluster more tightly around its own lean than sample sizes allow (dispersion 0.44, p < 0.001). That can mean herding, or heavy weighting and modeling.
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Trump job approval: consistency
Its polls cluster more tightly around its own lean than sample sizes allow (dispersion 0.42, p = 0.010). That can mean herding, or heavy weighting and modeling.
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Head-to-head with other pollsters
Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 36 | 0.4 | -0.4 to 1.1 | -1.1 |
| Morning Consult | 21 | 1.3 | 0.6 to 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Verasight | 18 | -2.8 | -3.9 to -1.9 | -2.7 |
| Ipsos | 16 | 2.3 | 1.6 to 3.1 | 1.1 |
| Quantus Insights | 14 | 0.3 | -0.6 to 1.3 | 0.8 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 14 | 3.5 | 2.5 to 4.4 | 2.9 |
| Emerson College | 10 | -1.9 | -3.2 to -0.5 | -0.7 |
| Cygnal | 8 | -0.8 | -1.9 to 0.2 | -0.1 |
| RMG Research | 6 | 1.7 | -1.3 to 4.7 | 2.1 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 6 | -0.8 | -2.5 to 0.7 | -1.6 |
| Big Data Poll | 6 | -0.9 | -2.8 to 0.8 | -1.1 |
| Marquette Law School Poll | 6 | -1.8 | -4.3 to 1.7 | -1.9 |
| AtlasIntel | 4 | -5.9 | -10.8 to 0.6 | -4.3 |
| NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies) | 4 | -0.5 | -2.0 to 1.0 | -0.7 |
| Quinnipiac University | 4 | -4.0 | -6.5 to -1.5 | -2.8 |
| Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) | 3 | -2.3 | -7.0 to 1.0 | -1.4 |
| The Winston Group | 3 | -2.3 | -4.0 to -1.0 | -1.1 |
| co/efficient | 3 | -1.3 | -4.0 to 1.0 | 2.8 |
| Survey 160 | 3 | -4.3 | -5.0 to -3.0 | -3.1 |
| John Zogby Strategies | 3 | 2.7 | 1.0 to 5.0 | -1.3 |
| GBAO | 3 | -2.3 | -3.0 to -2.0 | -2.8 |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | 3 | -3.7 | -4.0 to -3.0 | -1.0 |
| HarrisX | 3 | 3.7 | 1.0 to 6.0 | 1.8 |
Trump job approval
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 55 | 1.8 | 0.9 to 2.6 | 0.7 |
| Morning Consult | 49 | -3.3 | -4.5 to -2.2 | -4.4 |
| Ipsos | 33 | 6.3 | 5.2 to 7.4 | 4.0 |
| RMG Research | 28 | -7.3 | -8.7 to -5.7 | -8.7 |
| Quantus Insights | 19 | -4.2 | -5.3 to -3.1 | -4.6 |
| Quinnipiac University | 19 | 5.4 | 3.7 to 7.2 | 4.6 |
| American Research Group | 19 | 13.6 | 11.8 to 15.2 | 11.9 |
| Verasight | 18 | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 3.4 |
| ActiVote | 16 | 0.3 | -0.9 to 1.5 | -2.5 |
| Global Strategy Group | 15 | 3.7 | 2.3 to 5.1 | 2.0 |
| Emerson College | 14 | -3.3 | -4.9 to -1.7 | -4.0 |
| AP-NORC | 13 | 10.2 | 7.8 to 12.7 | 8.5 |
| J.L. Partners | 12 | -5.6 | -7.6 to -3.3 | -6.0 |
| Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) | 12 | 2.0 | 0.5 to 3.4 | 0.9 |
| Gallup | 10 | 10.0 | 7.9 to 11.7 | 6.1 |
| HarrisX | 10 | -6.6 | -9.2 to -4.0 | -7.0 |
| Marquette Law School Poll | 9 | 0.7 | -1.9 to 3.0 | 1.4 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 8 | -14.5 | -16.8 to -12.1 | -13.6 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 8 | -5.6 | -9.9 to -1.9 | -4.3 |
| Big Data Poll | 8 | -7.4 | -9.2 to -5.1 | -6.3 |
| TIPP Insights | 8 | 0.8 | -1.6 to 3.1 | -4.1 |
| John Zogby Strategies | 7 | -4.1 | -7.0 to -1.0 | -3.2 |
| CNN/SSRS | 7 | 8.4 | 6.0 to 10.9 | 6.9 |
| AtlasIntel | 7 | 3.3 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 1.3 |
| Marist Poll | 7 | 3.3 | 2.4 to 4.3 | 3.2 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 6 | -2.0 | -3.2 to -0.8 | -2.4 |
| The Bullfinch Group | 6 | 0.2 | -3.0 to 3.5 | -0.3 |
| NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies) | 5 | 1.8 | -1.2 to 3.8 | -1.8 |
| Pew Research Center | 5 | 11.8 | 9.6 to 14.0 | 9.4 |
| Tavern Research | 5 | -2.8 | -5.0 to -1.0 | -0.5 |
| co/efficient | 4 | 1.0 | -2.5 to 4.5 | 0.8 |
| GBAO | 4 | 3.3 | -0.3 to 6.5 | 0.8 |
| Leger | 3 | 3.7 | 1.0 to 6.0 | 1.1 |
| SurveyMonkey | 3 | 9.7 | 6.0 to 13.0 | 3.5 |
| The Winston Group | 3 | 7.0 | 5.0 to 10.0 | 3.6 |
| Survey 160 | 3 | 8.3 | 5.0 to 10.0 | 6.3 |
| Blueprint Polling | 3 | 4.7 | 0.0 to 7.0 | 2.3 |