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TIPP Insights

37 polls analyzed · population: 9 RV, 18 A, 10 LV

Election house effect
D+0.1
95%: R+1.7 to D+2.1 · 15 polls, 10 races
Approval house effect
+3.4 net approval
95%: +1.8 net approval to +5.0 net approval · 22 polls, 1 race

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency

Its polls bounce around more than sample sizes explain (dispersion 3.35, p < 0.001).

Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall

Trump job approval: consistency

Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 1.02).

Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall

Head-to-head with other pollsters

Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.

Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)

Show as table
Compared withPairsAvg. gap95% intervalModel estimate
YouGov6-1.0-1.8 to 0.0-0.1
Cygnal5-1.0-1.6 to -0.40.9
Morning Consult50.2-1.4 to 1.82.3
Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.)35.0-3.0 to 11.0-0.5
Quantus Insights3-2.5-4.0 to 0.01.8
HarrisX31.7-1.0 to 4.02.8
Marquette Law School Poll3-0.3-4.0 to 4.0-0.9
Verasight3-5.3-8.0 to -1.0-1.7

Trump job approval

Show as table
Compared withPairsAvg. gap95% intervalModel estimate
YouGov483.62.5 to 4.84.8
Morning Consult42-1.4-2.6 to -0.1-0.3
RMG Research24-4.9-6.8 to -3.2-4.6
Ipsos237.86.3 to 9.48.1
Quantus Insights20-2.4-3.8 to -0.9-0.5
J.L. Partners15-3.4-6.4 to -0.7-1.9
HarrisX13-5.8-7.8 to -3.9-2.9
Global Strategy Group134.53.7 to 5.26.1
Emerson College11-2.7-4.8 to -1.00.1
Quinnipiac University98.05.4 to 10.48.7
John Zogby Strategies9-0.1-3.9 to 3.50.9
CNN/SSRS87.64.6 to 10.011.0
Pew Research Center813.611.5 to 16.113.5
SurveyMonkey88.56.1 to 10.87.6
Marist Poll86.14.4 to 7.67.3
Echelon Insights8-0.8-3.1 to 1.64.1
Verasight77.45.4 to 9.47.5
Clarity Campaign Labs7-1.7-4.6 to 1.01.6
Big Data Poll7-1.8-3.8 to 0.2-2.2
AtlasIntel71.5-1.4 to 4.45.4
AP-NORC610.07.2 to 12.512.6
NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies)60.3-1.2 to 2.02.3
CBS News/YouGov6-0.5-3.5 to 2.31.6
Gallup67.54.9 to 10.010.2
The Bullfinch Group52.8-1.2 to 7.23.8
Marquette Law School Poll53.2-1.2 to 7.25.5
InsiderAdvantage5-9.9-14.6 to -3.8-9.5
Cygnal51.6-1.1 to 4.35.4
ActiVote40.7-0.8 to 3.01.6
Leger47.53.5 to 11.55.2
Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage4-6.9-9.7 to -3.2-3.4
Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.)31.71.0 to 3.05.0
Trafalgar Group3-12.5-14.0 to -10.9-9.4
McLaughlin & Associates3-2.5-5.8 to 2.2-0.2
The Winston Group34.01.0 to 7.07.7
GrayHouse30.9-1.0 to 4.00.4
Noble Predictive Insights3-2.0-5.0 to 1.0-0.6
Navigator Research (GSG/GBAO)33.62.8 to 5.05.3

All polls

EndedRaceSampleResultvs consensusSource
Aug 28, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,461 A−14.0 net approval+7.5release
May 28, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,589 A−17.0 net approval+1.2release
May 1, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,464 A−16.0 net approval+1.2release
Apr 2, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,464 A−14.0 net approval+2.1release
Feb 27, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,456 A−11.0 net approval+2.3release
Jan 29, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,384 A−11.0 net approval+2.3release
Jan 9, 2026Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,478 A−11.0 net approval+0.3release
Nov 29, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,483 A−4.0 net approval+7.3release
Oct 31, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,418 A−11.0 net approval+0.3release
Oct 2, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,459 A−4.0 net approval+4.9release
Sep 16, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,561 RV−4.0 net approval+4.0release
Aug 29, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,362 A−4.0 net approval+3.5release
Aug 2, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,362 A−1.0 net approval+7.5release
Jun 27, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,421 A−1.0 net approval+5.9release
Jun 11, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,584 RV−7.0 net approval0release
May 30, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,395 A−2.0 net approval+3.6release
May 2, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,400 A−5.0 net approval+1.3release
Apr 9, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,570 RV−6.2 net approval−0.8release
Mar 28, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,425 A−1.0 net approval+1.8release
Mar 6, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,720 RV−5.0 net approval−3.7release
Feb 28, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,434 A+3.0 net approval+2.0release
Jan 31, 2025Donald Trump job approval (2025–)1,478 A+5.0 net approval+0.9release
Sep 2, 20262026 Minnesota Senate1,201 LVD+2.0R+2.3release
Sep 2, 20262026 Minnesota Governor1,201 LVD+10.00release
Aug 18, 20262026 Wisconsin Governor1,119 LVD+4.0D+0.6release
Aug 10, 20262026 Michigan Senate1,528 RVD+3.0D+1.5release
Aug 10, 20262026 Michigan Governor1,215 LVD+16.0D+8.8release
May 28, 20262026 Generic congressional ballot1,332 RVD+5.0R+0.7release
May 23, 20262026 Michigan Senate1,163 LVD+1.0D+0.3release
May 23, 20262026 Michigan Governor1,163 LVD+11.0D+3.0release
Apr 24, 20262026 Arizona Governor1,159 LVD+10.0D+2.5release
Mar 19, 20262026 Wisconsin Governor1,175 LVD+1.0R+1.2release
Feb 27, 20262026 Generic congressional ballot1,264 RVD+2.0R+2.8release
Jan 29, 20262026 Generic congressional ballot1,126 RVD+3.0R+2.0release
Jan 15, 20262026 North Carolina Senate1,512 RVD+24.0D+14.8release
Aug 28, 20252025 New Jersey Governor1,349 LVD+7.0D+0.3release
Aug 1, 20252026 Georgia Senate2,395 LVD+1.0R+1.9release