AtlasIntel
16 polls analyzed · population: 2 RV, 12 A, 2 LV
Election house effect
D+3.5
95%: D+0.9 to D+6.0 · 7 polls, 3 races
Approval house effect
−2.0 net approval
95%: −4.1 net approval to Even · 9 polls, 1 race
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor): consistency
Its polls bounce around more than sample sizes explain (dispersion 3.23, p < 0.001).
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Trump job approval: consistency
Its poll-to-poll spread is in the normal range (dispersion 1.46).
Poll: distance from consensusThis pollster's house effectWhere 95% of polls should fall
Head-to-head with other pollsters
Polls of the same race fielded within a week of each other. Each row is the average gap between this pollster and another. A point on the left means this pollster's numbers run more Democratic, and a point on the right means more Republican (for approval: more favorable to Trump). This comparison uses no model.
Election polls (generic ballot, Senate, governor)
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 9 | 5.5 | 0.5 to 9.9 | 3.2 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 5 | 12.1 | 8.2 to 14.4 | 7.2 |
| Echelon Insights | 4 | 5.9 | -0.6 to 10.8 | 4.3 |
| Quantus Insights | 4 | 4.5 | -1.2 to 10.5 | 5.1 |
| Emerson College | 4 | 4.1 | -1.8 to 10.2 | 3.6 |
| Morning Consult | 4 | 12.8 | 11.5 to 14.1 | 5.6 |
| A2 Insights | 3 | 0.6 | -4.0 to 5.3 | 3.8 |
| RMG Research | 3 | 8.1 | 5.5 to 12.6 | 6.4 |
Trump job approval
Show as table
| Compared with | Pairs | Avg. gap | 95% interval | Model estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 21 | -1.8 | -3.4 to -0.0 | -0.6 |
| Morning Consult | 18 | -5.9 | -8.4 to -3.7 | -5.8 |
| Ipsos | 12 | 3.5 | 1.3 to 5.5 | 2.7 |
| RMG Research | 12 | -10.4 | -13.5 to -7.6 | -10.0 |
| Quantus Insights | 9 | -7.9 | -10.1 to -5.9 | -5.9 |
| Echelon Insights | 7 | -3.3 | -6.5 to -0.3 | -1.3 |
| TIPP Insights | 7 | -1.5 | -4.4 to 1.4 | -5.4 |
| Emerson College | 6 | -8.2 | -10.0 to -6.3 | -5.3 |
| J.L. Partners | 6 | -8.9 | -12.7 to -5.5 | -7.3 |
| American Research Group | 6 | 8.1 | 5.0 to 11.7 | 10.6 |
| Quinnipiac University | 6 | 2.8 | -1.6 to 7.2 | 3.3 |
| Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.) | 5 | -1.3 | -5.1 to 2.5 | -0.4 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 5 | -9.5 | -16.6 to -5.1 | -5.6 |
| Gallup | 5 | 6.1 | 2.6 to 9.5 | 4.8 |
| ActiVote | 5 | -1.9 | -4.2 to 0.6 | -3.8 |
| HarrisX | 4 | -7.6 | -9.1 to -5.3 | -8.3 |
| CNN/SSRS | 4 | 5.2 | 4.1 to 6.2 | 5.6 |
| Civiqs | 3 | 0.1 | -5.0 to 4.6 | -0.3 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 3 | -3.8 | -9.1 to 0.9 | -3.8 |
| Global Strategy Group | 3 | 0.0 | -3.1 to 2.7 | 0.7 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 3 | -22.3 | -29.3 to -16.6 | -14.9 |
| AP-NORC | 3 | 10.0 | 7.4 to 13.7 | 7.2 |
| Big Data Poll | 3 | -15.1 | -17.7 to -10.2 | -7.6 |
| Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage | 3 | -13.3 | -18.1 to -9.3 | -8.8 |
| The Bullfinch Group | 3 | 0.6 | -1.1 to 3.4 | -1.6 |